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  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 14668 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #125 on: November 05, 2016, 08:58:17 pm »

So we can bash Iowa now for being a Trump state? I guess we through out civility as well?

Anyways, we can afford to lose Iowa to Trump in exchange for flipping NC back
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #126 on: November 05, 2016, 09:01:00 pm »

My grandpa helped renovate this:
Img


I'm pretty connected to Iowa whether I like it or not. Half of the buildings in my father's home town were built by my grandpa. I feel pretty entitled to hate my family's state for betraying me and voting for some crypto-fascist who said very hateful things about me and my mother. Idaho will do the same but, alas, Idaho has always treated me this way. Iowa doing this is dark. What a dumb state! I hope Clinton hits it hard and takes away their precious corn syrup and trashcan ethanol subsidies. Those lil rent-seeking farmers need to be punished for being brats.
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Warren Peace🦋
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« Reply #127 on: November 05, 2016, 09:01:30 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

Iowa literally picks all its politicians based on how "personable" they are.  Whoever wins the beer contest wins Iowa.  It's one of the worst swing states for that reason alone.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #128 on: November 05, 2016, 09:04:06 pm »

Why have you changed your post, DFB?  You would think Trumpies would embrace the harsh reality of these dumb Iowan cornheads considering their love of Mr. Anti-PC himself.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #129 on: November 05, 2016, 09:06:11 pm »

We're the working class whites who voted for Obama in 2012 dumb? Or did they become dumb sometime in the past four years?
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #130 on: November 05, 2016, 09:11:53 pm »

ITT: People making ridiculous stereotypes about another group of people and feeling superior in the process.

Keep it up guys, you're really showing our moral superiority here.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #131 on: November 05, 2016, 09:12:04 pm »

Good to see DFB speaking some truth instead of the usual coddling of simpletons and racists by the "cuck left".
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #132 on: November 05, 2016, 09:13:26 pm »

We're the working class whites who voted for Obama in 2012 dumb? Or did they become dumb sometime in the past four years?

They became dumb after 2014. Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley
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Warren Peace🦋
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« Reply #133 on: November 05, 2016, 09:15:39 pm »

Good to see DFB speaking some truth instead of the usual coddling of simpletons and racists by the "cuck left".

The cuck-left really is the worst, isn't it?  "Nice guy ff"-ism is the most destructive force in politics, more so than what Trump's given us.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #134 on: November 05, 2016, 09:18:51 pm »

yeah DFB stop being so mean to the racists! we need to sympathize with them Cry
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #135 on: November 05, 2016, 09:19:38 pm »

Do you think many of the farmers in Iowa will come under the control of and be bounded by some Lords and Barons?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #136 on: November 05, 2016, 09:20:27 pm »

Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #137 on: November 05, 2016, 09:23:39 pm »

Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.

Img

The People's Lord
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« Reply #138 on: November 05, 2016, 09:25:00 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.
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« Reply #139 on: November 05, 2016, 09:25:26 pm »

Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.

Obama/Trump vote is gonna be massive.
That's the basis of Trump's impending victory.
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Arch
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« Reply #140 on: November 05, 2016, 09:26:01 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.
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Ljube
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« Reply #141 on: November 05, 2016, 09:27:04 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #142 on: November 05, 2016, 09:27:51 pm »

Ok... this polling thread has once again descended into the cesspool with many of the comments here.

All being said, isn't the Des Moines Register poll run by Seltzer & Co considered to be the "Gold Standard" of Iowa polling similar to Marquette in Wisconsin?

I think everyone here can agree, it looks like Trump will likely win Iowa, regardless of the final margins, and EV numbers seem to indicate a drop-off in Democratic enthusiasm from the Obama era, where he did quite well as a Mid-West Democrat in a state where George Jr. won in 2004.

It will be interesting to watch trends in 2020 if Republicans nominate a candidate that is not a protectionist on trade related issues, and is an interventionist on foreign policy issues, to see if Iowa swings back towards the Democratic Party.

Iowa voters are frequently dovish on foreign policy and protectionist on economic policy, and Clinton's brand going back to 2008 doesn't resonate the same way that Obama's has, and Trump has certainly muddied the waters of the "traditional Republican" policies on these overall attitudes.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #143 on: November 05, 2016, 09:29:33 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Would you believe it if they told you in 2008 that Virginia will vote 10 points to the left of West Virginia?
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Arch
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« Reply #144 on: November 05, 2016, 09:29:59 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.
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Ljube
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« Reply #145 on: November 05, 2016, 09:30:53 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #146 on: November 05, 2016, 09:31:41 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Iowa and Wisconsin really aren't that alike anymore.
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Arch
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« Reply #147 on: November 05, 2016, 09:34:41 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?


Here. I'll take your hand:

IA:
RCP Average   Trump +3.0
Trump +7
Trump +3
Clinton +1
Tie
Trump +4
Tie
Trump +7
Trump +8
Trump +5

WI:
RCP Average   Clinton +5.5
Clinton +6
Clinton +4
Clinton +6
Clinton +6
Clinton +5
Clinton +7
Clinton +8
Clinton +7
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mencken
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« Reply #148 on: November 05, 2016, 09:36:50 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Would you believe it if they told you in 2008 that Virginia will vote 20 10 points to the left of West Virginia?

1996: West Virginia: Clinton +15; Virginia: Dole +2 (Difference: -17)
2000: West Virginia: Bush +6; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: -2)
2004: West Virginia: Bush +13; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: 5)

Retrospectively, the correlation between the Virginias seems to have been pretty weak. On the other hand, Iowa and Wisconsin have voted pretty much in sync since 1984. While a break in that trend is hardly unprecedented, it should be evaluated within that context.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #149 on: November 05, 2016, 09:37:34 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.

lmao
I don't know what to say.
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