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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 13723 times)
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #175 on: November 06, 2016, 05:02:11 pm »

I trust Selzer. Iowa is likely R.

If they're wrong though, I'm really shocked at just how quick they've fallen from grace.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #176 on: November 06, 2016, 06:24:33 pm »

I expect Trump to win, but I don't expect it to be by that much.
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« Reply #177 on: November 06, 2016, 06:28:28 pm »

Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.

Apparently the definition of "working class" is white men who don't have college degrees these days.

yes, this 1000 times.
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« Reply #178 on: November 09, 2016, 10:19:02 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Turns out the answer was A, and amusingly enough, the answer was also C Cheesy
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #179 on: November 09, 2016, 10:40:29 pm »

Turns out the answer was A, and amusingly enough, the answer was also C Cheesy

So apparently, Michael Moore should've also added pollsters in his list of "things you will be telling to F-off by voting Trump". Honestly, this may be on the funniest posts on this forum Pre-election, as you pointed out.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #180 on: November 09, 2016, 11:20:43 pm »

Haha, my overreaction and joy based on this poll was TREMENDOUS and HUGE Evil
I marked in blue

Holy f**k




Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.


If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...


I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56




Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.

That's why early voting statistics might backfire a bit...
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« Reply #181 on: November 11, 2016, 07:34:21 pm »

So I guess this is pretty much the only gold standard left.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #182 on: November 13, 2016, 05:45:58 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

Let them dream.

People who assume that the fact that Trump is doing well in Iowa must mean he's also doing well in in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan are oversimplifying matters. First of all, polls do not suggest he's doing well in those states (except for a few odd Michigan polls). More importantly, these states are not at all identical to Iowa. They all have a much higher percentage of urban and suburban voters, a demographic that Trump struggles enormously with. Wisconsin and Michigan also have a higher percentage of black voters than Iowa. Not to mention that Minnesota and Wisconsin in particular have more college educated voters than Iowa.

Roll Eyes
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« Reply #183 on: November 13, 2016, 05:59:41 pm »

What the hell happened to this thread? Huh

The state is trending republican so dems have to reassure themselves by saying Iowans are dumb Hicks.

No, we say that Republicans are dumb Hicks, and clearly there are more of them in Iowa than before Smiley

Clearly a lot of dumb hicks that voted for Obama as well.
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« Reply #184 on: November 13, 2016, 06:09:59 pm »

Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.
Sounds like someone has the deplorable fever!

But who cares about those racist inbred hicks?! We still have the firewa-... Oh wait...

I guess WI, MI, IA, OH and PA are Southern states now!
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« Reply #185 on: November 14, 2016, 12:39:07 pm »

Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.
Sounds like someone has the deplorable fever!

But who cares about those racist inbred hicks?! We still have the firewa-... Oh wait...

I guess WI, MI, IA, OH and PA are Southern states now!

For God's sakes these numbskulls even almost lost Minnesota LOL.


According to Atlas, Tumblr, and elsewhere: apparently 300+ electoral votes worth of state populations are "racis KKK member stupid alabama-living cousin loving hick garbage monster truck driving!!!" families like shown above.
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« Reply #186 on: November 17, 2016, 03:30:07 am »

"How Stupid Are the People of Iowa?"

Very, very stupid, apparently.
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« Reply #187 on: December 06, 2016, 11:52:50 pm »

Great poll!
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Eharding
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« Reply #188 on: February 15, 2017, 08:18:29 am »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

About 10 points behind. Don't worry. It'll be ultra close Smiley
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« Reply #189 on: February 15, 2017, 08:22:25 am »

-Trump ahead in IA as it has been the case for months.-

Trump Supporters: SEE GUYS!? WI, MN, MI, PA ARE IN PLAY NOW. Good grief.
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« Reply #190 on: May 01, 2017, 03:49:43 am »

It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.

I Still laugh to this day. Over 9 point Trump margin, and even voted to the right of Texas.
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