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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 13939 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: November 05, 2016, 07:06:37 pm »

Bye Iowa, hello North Carolina.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:07:57 pm »

PRAISE THE LORD!!

Why?

We dont need and weren't counting on Iowa.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:34:15 pm »

If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...

That's not what that means. In the poll, Selzer points out enthusiasm for Hillary is low amongst Bernie supporters and she thinks they're not going to turn out. Hillary is just a bad fit.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 07:37:59 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We had a quality poll from Marquette.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 07:49:19 pm »

I do take issue with Selzer's likely voter model which seems to help Trump so I do think she's got the margin wrong.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:08 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 08:20:45 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?

Oh, yep. I replied to LBP without reading the original post. 
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