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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 13877 times)
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« on: November 05, 2016, 07:17:25 pm »

I doubt it'll be this lopsided (though it was in 2014), but yeah, looks like Iowa really has gone full-on Arkansas. Oh well, it's a small loss, and it's worth gains in places like NC and FL (and eventually, AZ and GA).
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:41:59 pm »

People who assume that the fact that Trump is doing well in Iowa must mean he's also doing well in in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan are oversimplifying matters. First of all, polls do not suggest he's doing well in those states (except for a few odd Michigan polls). More importantly, these states are not at all identical to Iowa. They all have a much higher percentage of urban and suburban voters, a demographic that Trump struggles enormously with. Wisconsin and Michigan also have a higher percentage of black voters than Iowa. Not to mention that Minnesota and Wisconsin in particular have more college educated voters than Iowa.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 10:20:45 pm »

I don't think it's implausible at all that there could be a wide gap between Iowa and Wisconsin this year. There are plenty of differences between the two.
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