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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 13905 times)
Castro
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« on: November 05, 2016, 07:04:48 pm »

Trump - 46%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

Poll conducted Nov 1-4.

Quote
At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump. That’s a testament to her campaign’s heavy focus on banking votes during Iowa’s 40-day early vote period. But the data indicate it will not be enough to overcome Trump's support.

Voters who have already cast their ballots represent 34 percent of poll respondents. Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32.

Among other groups, meanwhile, Clinton’s lead is significantly lower than the advantage she enjoys nationally. She holds just a 3-point lead among women, for example, a demographic Democrats have been banking on to reject Trump and lift Clinton and one that she leads by a dozen or more points in national polls.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90
« Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 07:09:30 pm by Castro »Logged
Castro
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:08:43 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.
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Castro
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:19:15 pm »

The Trump-Cruz margin in their final caucus poll was off by more than 8 points, so it's possible she doesn't have as good a read on Iowa anymore. That said, it was a caucus and much harder to predict than a general election race. Then again, one could argue Trump underpeformed so much in Iowa because of his lack of groundgame, which could be present in the general election as well. Bottom line, I'm not going to count on this poll being wrong, and I'm chalking this up to a Trump win in my prediction.
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 07:24:44 pm »

God Bless Iowa! I hope they remain in the Republican column for future elections.

I'll gladly trade Iowa for North Carolina any day.
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Castro
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2016, 07:34:21 pm »

So I guess this is pretty much the only gold standard left.
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