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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 14204 times)
mencken
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« on: November 05, 2016, 09:25:00 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.
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mencken
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 09:36:50 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Would you believe it if they told you in 2008 that Virginia will vote 20 10 points to the left of West Virginia?

1996: West Virginia: Clinton +15; Virginia: Dole +2 (Difference: -17)
2000: West Virginia: Bush +6; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: -2)
2004: West Virginia: Bush +13; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: 5)

Retrospectively, the correlation between the Virginias seems to have been pretty weak. On the other hand, Iowa and Wisconsin have voted pretty much in sync since 1984. While a break in that trend is hardly unprecedented, it should be evaluated within that context.
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mencken
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2016, 10:19:02 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Turns out the answer was A, and amusingly enough, the answer was also C Cheesy
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