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November 15, 2019, 01:00:30 pm
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  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 15822 times)
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YaBB God
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« on: November 05, 2016, 07:37:03 pm »

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YaBB God
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:46:12 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


Marquette: Clinton 46, Trump 40

It's okay. Let them blind themselves if it makes them feel better. Iowa was already going anyways.
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:54:09 pm »

-Trump ahead in IA as it has been the case for months.-

Trump Supporters: SEE GUYS!? WI, MN, MI, PA ARE IN PLAY NOW. Good grief.
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YaBB God
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 08:10:40 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

About 10 points behind. Don't worry. It'll be ultra close Smiley
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YaBB God
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 09:26:01 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 09:29:59 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.
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YaBB God
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 09:34:41 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?


Here. I'll take your hand:

IA:
RCP Average   Trump +3.0
Trump +7
Trump +3
Clinton +1
Tie
Trump +4
Tie
Trump +7
Trump +8
Trump +5

WI:
RCP Average   Clinton +5.5
Clinton +6
Clinton +4
Clinton +6
Clinton +6
Clinton +5
Clinton +7
Clinton +8
Clinton +7
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