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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 13888 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: November 05, 2016, 07:11:20 pm »

Holy f**k

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:22:24 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:30:01 pm »

If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 07:40:09 pm »

I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 07:46:42 pm »

Notice Minnesota is the biggest correlating state though...
?
OH, WI an MI are.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 08:05:13 pm »

Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.

Grow a pair.
Do you love Akon by the way? I do.

My favorite chorus from Akon - Ghetto https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2nO86ZTs8I

Quote
Cause thats the life when ur
Living in the (ghetto)and
Eating in the (ghetto)or
Sleeping in the (ghetto) (ghetto)
Cause thats the life when ur
Living in the (ghetto)and
Eating in the (ghetto)or
Sleeping in the (ghetto, ghetto, ghetto)

It reminds me of something. I of course mean Iowa. Iowa is like a ghetto, right?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 08:11:42 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 08:40:05 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?

Oh, yep. I replied to LBP without reading the original post. 

Ouch. I missed this part...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2016, 08:42:12 pm »

Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.

That's why early voting statistics might backfire a bit...
« Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 08:45:05 pm by Little Big BREXIT »Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2016, 08:53:51 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

I don't think you understand how polling works: it's possible for the registered share of those under the age of 35 to look very different than the sample contained in this poll. As far as I know, young Iowans are more Democratic than what is suggested here. Maybe their turnout will be awful but the GOP does not have a 7 point registration lead among young Iowans...
As I alreade wrote, I missed part about "under 35".

But in theory, since they have all the statics (even how many registred R/D/I in each age group, gender and so on), they could reweight for it as well. But I don't think that it possible with such a small sample.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2016, 11:20:43 pm »

Haha, my overreaction and joy based on this poll was TREMENDOUS and HUGE Evil
I marked in blue

Holy f**k

Img



Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.


If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...


I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56


Img


Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.

That's why early voting statistics might backfire a bit...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2016, 05:45:58 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

Let them dream.

People who assume that the fact that Trump is doing well in Iowa must mean he's also doing well in in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan are oversimplifying matters. First of all, polls do not suggest he's doing well in those states (except for a few odd Michigan polls). More importantly, these states are not at all identical to Iowa. They all have a much higher percentage of urban and suburban voters, a demographic that Trump struggles enormously with. Wisconsin and Michigan also have a higher percentage of black voters than Iowa. Not to mention that Minnesota and Wisconsin in particular have more college educated voters than Iowa.

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