Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 22, 2019, 01:13:06 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 13914 times)
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,818
United States


View Profile WWW
« on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:41 pm »

Can we finally stop pretending now that Clinton ever had a chance here?
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,818
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:27:12 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,818
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:31:18 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.


Iowa is not an indicator of any of those four states--the demographics are completely different. Iowa has more in common with Kansas than it does PA/WI/MN/MN. I will agree that Ohio has been gone for some time, but again it's starting to have more in common with Indiana than Pennsylvania as populations change.
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,818
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 07:43:21 pm »

I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56

Img



Notice Minnesota is the biggest correlating state though...
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,818
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 08:33:39 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Zero correlation.

Oddly, this increased Hillary's chances of winning in 538.

I quit following 538's "analysis" a long time ago--there's so little sense to any of it.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines