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November 19, 2019, 12:29:46 pm
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  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 15881 times)
Hammy
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« on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:41 pm »

Can we finally stop pretending now that Clinton ever had a chance here?
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Hammy
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:27:12 pm »


Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.
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Hammy
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:31:18 pm »


Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.


Iowa is not an indicator of any of those four states--the demographics are completely different. Iowa has more in common with Kansas than it does PA/WI/MN/MN. I will agree that Ohio has been gone for some time, but again it's starting to have more in common with Indiana than Pennsylvania as populations change.
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Hammy
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 07:43:21 pm »

I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56




Notice Minnesota is the biggest correlating state though...
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Hammy
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 08:33:39 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Zero correlation.

Oddly, this increased Hillary's chances of winning in 538.

I quit following 538's "analysis" a long time ago--there's so little sense to any of it.
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