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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 14140 times)
Ljube
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Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« on: November 05, 2016, 07:07:39 pm »

Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.
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Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:13:16 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 07:14:53 pm by Ljube »

Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.


No. Philly suburbs are changing PA from a rust belt state to part of the solid northeast.

PA won't be Trump+7. But if IA can swing from Obama+6 to Trump+7, then PA can swing half as much, which will be enough for a Trump+1 to Trump+2 win.
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Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:28:38 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.
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Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 07:35:17 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.
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Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 07:42:17 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just did from Marquette and PPP showing Clinton up 6 and 7 respectively. Again, Iowa is more like the Great Plains than it is the Midwest.

Anyone have crosstabs yet?

PPP poll is for a left wing advocacy group, so it can't be trusted.
Marquette poll is a bit old.

I don't think Wisconsin can be won because of same day registration and Dem ground game.
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Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 09:25:26 pm »

Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.

Obama/Trump vote is gonna be massive.
That's the basis of Trump's impending victory.
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Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 09:27:04 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.
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Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,343
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 09:30:53 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?
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