IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 (user search)
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  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 36276 times)
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,944
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« on: November 05, 2016, 07:07:39 PM »


Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,944
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:13:16 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 07:14:53 PM by Ljube »


Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.


No. Philly suburbs are changing PA from a rust belt state to part of the solid northeast.

PA won't be Trump+7. But if IA can swing from Obama+6 to Trump+7, then PA can swing half as much, which will be enough for a Trump+1 to Trump+2 win.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,944
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:28:38 PM »


Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,944
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 07:35:17 PM »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,944
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 07:42:17 PM »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just did from Marquette and PPP showing Clinton up 6 and 7 respectively. Again, Iowa is more like the Great Plains than it is the Midwest.

Anyone have crosstabs yet?

PPP poll is for a left wing advocacy group, so it can't be trusted.
Marquette poll is a bit old.

I don't think Wisconsin can be won because of same day registration and Dem ground game.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,944
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 09:25:26 PM »

Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.

Obama/Trump vote is gonna be massive.
That's the basis of Trump's impending victory.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,944
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 09:27:04 PM »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,944
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 09:30:53 PM »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?
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