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  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 15921 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« on: November 05, 2016, 08:10:06 pm »


I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 08:50:47 pm »


I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

I don't think you understand how polling works: it's possible for the registered share of those under the age of 35 to look very different than the sample contained in this poll. As far as I know, young Iowans are more Democratic than what is suggested here. Maybe their turnout will be awful but the GOP does not have a 7 point registration lead among young Iowans...
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 08:54:20 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 08:57:53 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 09:01:00 pm »

My grandpa helped renovate this:
Image Link

I'm pretty connected to Iowa whether I like it or not. Half of the buildings in my father's home town were built by my grandpa. I feel pretty entitled to hate my family's state for betraying me and voting for some crypto-fascist who said very hateful things about me and my mother. Idaho will do the same but, alas, Idaho has always treated me this way. Iowa doing this is dark. What a dumb state! I hope Clinton hits it hard and takes away their precious corn syrup and trashcan ethanol subsidies. Those lil rent-seeking farmers need to be punished for being brats.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 09:56:02 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 10:01:37 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "jesus, Iowans are stupid". This might shock you but many Iowans love to mock farmers and the really boorish people in towns. Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

edit: for the record, my Dad is a carpenter. You can call me many things but I'm not an "elitist". I merely have a deep distaste for moronic suckers who can be conned this easily by a fraudster. Considering that farmers tend to be rather affluent, I'm not sure how this embodies any sort of class-based elitism or whatever. I'm making fun of simpletons for being ignorant of the world; I'm not making fun of working class people. Farmers are not union men at a John Deere plant. I can respect the latter for toying with Trump. The former has no excuse and no reason to feel resentment at a government that has made sure that they live "high on the hog". They're landlords and they're sucking in rents from the masses.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 10:06:55 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "wow, Iowans are really dumb". Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

Might lower Democratic enthusiasm be the major problem for Clinton in the state, especially in the driftless area? I'd guess that there'll be high turnout for Trump in the south and west of the state along with low turnout for Clinton in the north and east. I just can't fathom how a state could vote so strongly for Obama then so strongly for Trump. There can't be that many crossover voters.

Compare the voting patterns of southern Iowa with the voting patterns of their brethren across the border with Missouri. This explains why Iowa will swing so sharply towards Trump. For decades rural Iowans have been usually supportive of the Democratic Party compared to their peers and a lot of this can be explained by the farm crisis. It makes sense that they'd snap back to their usual pattern as commodity prices have plunged.

I would not be shocked if working class Iowans swing towards Trump or if they turnout at lower rates but that's not where the swing will be: look to southern Iowa in places like Union County.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2016, 03:30:07 am »

"How Stupid Are the People of Iowa?"

Very, very stupid, apparently.
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