Who will win Ohio?

[Cruzcrew]

I know Clinton has a superior ground game to Trump but isn't Portman's great ground game aiding Trump a decent amount?

[RHTFT]

Donald Trump by around 1%. It might be the closest state in the country.

[alomas]

I think the effect of Clinton's ground game in Ohio is exaggerated. R are 5+ points vs 2008 in EV.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Trump, barely. But I'd call it a pure tossup right now.

[PresidentSamTilden]

*Probably* still Trump, but I'm less confident in that then I was recently

[politicallefty]

I really don't know. It's probably the state I have the most trouble figuring out right now. A couple days ago, I would have said Trump. Now, I think it's the purest toss-up we have right now. I'll make my final prediction tomorrow, but I think the winner will win Ohio by less 100,000 votes. Fortunately, Hillary can easily win without it, but I'd much rather see her win with it.

[Blair]

Clinton by a whisker

[Sedona]

Clinton by a whisker

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Clinton by a whisker

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ohio will be the litmus test for the effectiveness of ground game this cycle.

I plan on banging the phones for Hillary on Monday if I can get some free time.  We're doing a full-on Ohio assault from Indy.

[bagelman]

Ohio will be the litmus test for the effectiveness of ground game this cycle.

I plan on banging the phones for Hillary on Monday if I can get some free time.  We're doing a full-on Ohio assault from Indy.

Where do I sign up?

[Mallow]

Trump by 0-1 points. I wouldn't be surprised if it was Florida 2000 close. I just have this feeling Clinton will do much better than expected, but still lose.

This.

[zorkpolitics]

Trump by 2

[Hammy]

Trump 50-46.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Hillary Clinton 50%
Donald Trump 48%
Other 2%

[RJEvans]

I agree with PPP, it's going to be within 1 point, but ultimately, I think Trump will prevail.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Trump from anywhere between 1% to 5% and I think it will be called rather quickly on election night.

Unlikely even if Trump wins by that margin that it will be called quickly, Ohio has a severe Democratic counting bias, meaning that regardless of who wins in a close race, Clinton is bound to be ahead for at least the first hour or so after polls close.   

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton has a better chance of winning OH than Trump has of breaching the freiwal.  She may have a better chance at Ohio than Trump has at FL at this point, but that's pushing it.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Trump in a squeaker.

[Leinad]

Trump by 1 or 2. No one will get to 50%.

[Lachi]

Clinton, The ground game will push her over the top here.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Trump in a squeaker.

Yes.

Funny how Ohio went from the deciding state in 2004 to an optional addition to the "freiwal".

[Dr. Arch]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLLLOLOLOLOLPLOLLOLOOLLOLOO'OLLO''P''PLLOLLOLL

ATLAS AT ITS FINEST

Do you have nothing else to do with your life?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Trump by 8.

We got a winner.

[rbt48]

A 447,841 vote and 8.07% margin for Trump in Ohio.

How was everyone so wrong about Ohio (polling, I mean)?

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I've heard some commentators say that the polls were right, after all, with Clinton's 2 - 3% national margin being close to reality.  But that conclusion overlooks how far off the polls were in OH, FL, NC, PA, MI, WI, IA, and probably in under-forecasting Clinton's 30% margin in California!  Yes, when all combined for a national margin, the polls look reasonable, but state-by-state, far off the mark in so many key states!