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Author Topic: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5  (Read 5292 times)
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2016, 12:10:44 am »

Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

doesn't really sound like it.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-predictions-campaign-14
Ag, SOS, state house, and nv4. I don't give him much credit for getting nv3 and the governor's elections right as those races were never competitive
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« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2016, 12:11:34 am »

Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? Roll Eyes

We were told to disregard the AK SEN and CO SEN polls in 2014, and in the end those polls were spot on. "House Effects" or "Turnout misestimates" can always fade away over time.

The idea of Republicans narrowly winning those races wasn't inconceivable, though. Trump winning a state like NV with his numbers among Latinos in anything other than a 2014-style, low turnout environment makes absolutely no sense. Looking at the demographics and the early vote so far, it's much more likely that the polls are wrong (and they have been many times in Nevada.)
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« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2016, 12:22:06 am »

2008: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2010: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2012: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2014: NV polls do OK, Ralston gets it mostly right.
2016: Gee, I wonder who of NV polls or Ralston will get it right?
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« Reply #28 on: November 06, 2016, 12:26:20 am »

These junk polls only serve to give Trump more ammunition for his "rigged election" talk.
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« Reply #29 on: November 06, 2016, 12:30:04 am »

Wait, were these the guys that did those 10,000 respondent daily polls for the South Carolina Republican State House Caucus or whatever during the primary?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #30 on: November 06, 2016, 12:36:13 am »

as long as people continue to post TRAFALGAR polls i will continue posting this poll they did that should pretty much prove they are the worst in the business
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« Reply #31 on: November 06, 2016, 01:03:43 am »


So what? It was a caucus poll.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 01:06:26 am by realisticidealist »Logged
Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #32 on: November 06, 2016, 02:03:11 am »

Is this the worst poll of 2016?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #33 on: November 06, 2016, 02:21:59 am »


even a poll of a caucus shouldn't be as off as this poll was.

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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #34 on: November 06, 2016, 03:49:15 am »

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

You actually think Nevada is going to vote for Trump? lmao.
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Lok
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« Reply #35 on: November 06, 2016, 04:45:41 am »

If Nate Silver had any sanity, which is hard to know after yesterday, he wouldn't include this garbage polling outfit in his model.
He did... He adjusted it to T+2.
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« Reply #36 on: November 06, 2016, 04:53:55 am »

Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.
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« Reply #37 on: November 06, 2016, 05:47:54 am »

The constant barrage of sh**tty polls like this is one of the reasons this election year sucks so hard.
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« Reply #38 on: November 06, 2016, 02:50:50 pm »

Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
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« Reply #39 on: November 06, 2016, 02:57:11 pm »

Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2016, 03:00:03 pm »

Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.

Shocked   You agree with me for the first time ever... OMG
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #41 on: November 06, 2016, 04:25:13 pm »

Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.

Shocked   You agree with me for the first time ever... OMG
I said she will probably win. Really have to adjust my thing.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2016, 04:27:01 pm »

Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.

Shocked   You agree with me for the first time ever... OMG
I said she will probably win. Really have to adjust my thing.
So did I Shocked
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2016, 04:43:33 pm »

Hopefully, this election will be Trafalgar's Waterloo.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2016, 05:28:12 pm »

Hopefully, this election will be Trafalgar's Waterloo.
Nice pun or play on or what have you.
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