NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5

[dfwlibertylover]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitYTV0T1hDMnpDVkU/view
Trump - 50
Clinton - 45
Johnson - 3
Stein - 1

[Wolverine22]

*Laughs so hard his gut hurts*

[Arch]

[Mangez des pommes !]

Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this sums up this election perfectly.

those are, iirc...the "what would your neighbour vote"-guys.

[Horus]

This poll has 25-35 year olds breaking for Trump 51-39, and shows Trump getting 37% of Latinos. I find that very hard to believe, to say the least.

[dfwlibertylover]

Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.

my secret fetish is Ralston being wrong

[Speed of Sound]

I'm conservative on polling, but I'm very very very confident that EV has already shown where NV is going. This is a hard swing and miss.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if they would at least fine a tie.....

how does this work?

strict rules which make it clear that latinos never vote?

english-only landlines?

30%+ trumpocrats?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

I can safely say that this is trash!

[heatcharger]

If Nate Silver had any sanity, which is hard to know after yesterday, he wouldn't include this garbage polling outfit in his model.

[Lief 🐋]

This is just going to increase Trump's odds in Nevada and make Nate Silver's model even more of a joke! BEAUTIFUL!

[Ebsy]

Uh, sure.

[Deranged California Suburbanite]

Did that Overtime Politics or whatever pollster reopen?

[Dr. RI]

Did that Overtime Politics or whatever pollster reopen?

Trafalgar was polling at least as early as the SC primary this year.

[Pandaguineapig]

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

[Speed of Sound]

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?

[Xing]

Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it?

[Eraserhead]

I think Hillary wins it but probably not by much.

[Maxwell]

do terrible right-wing pollsters every go bankrupt or do people just like being lied to?

[ApatheticAustrian]

NV has had many bad poll years but this must be the worst, if ralston is even in the same universe as the final vote.

[Pandaguineapig]

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?

Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

[Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon]

Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it?

We were told to disregard the AK SEN and CO SEN polls in 2014, and in the end those polls were spot on. "House Effects" or "Turnout misestimates" can always fade away over time.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

doesn't really sound like it.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-predictions-campaign-14

[Speed of Sound]

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?

Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

I asked for a debunk of their math. We don't need Ralston or McDonald to see the numbers from NV, which are ~70% of all that will vote there. Debunk their numbers, not the men.