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  NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
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Author Topic: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5  (Read 6039 times)
dfwlibertylover
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« on: November 05, 2016, 11:28:33 pm »

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitYTV0T1hDMnpDVkU/view
Trump - 50
Clinton - 45
Johnson - 3
Stein - 1
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 11:29:13 pm »

*Laughs so hard his gut hurts*
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 11:29:41 pm »

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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 11:30:06 pm »



Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 11:30:46 pm »

this sums up this election perfectly.

those are, iirc...the "what would your neighbour vote"-guys.
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Horus
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 11:31:31 pm »

This poll has 25-35 year olds breaking for Trump 51-39, and shows Trump getting 37% of Latinos. I find that very hard to believe, to say the least.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 11:32:26 pm »



Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.
my secret fetish is Ralston being wrong
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 11:33:16 pm »

I'm conservative on polling, but I'm very very very confident that EV has already shown where NV is going. This is a hard swing and miss.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2016, 11:36:58 pm »

if they would at least fine a tie.....

how does this work?

strict rules which make it clear that latinos never vote?

english-only landlines?

30%+ trumpocrats?
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2016, 11:37:02 pm »

I can safely say that this is trash!
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2016, 11:38:25 pm »

If Nate Silver had any sanity, which is hard to know after yesterday, he wouldn't include this garbage polling outfit in his model.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 11:40:18 pm »

This is just going to increase Trump's odds in Nevada and make Nate Silver's model even more of a joke! BEAUTIFUL!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2016, 11:52:45 pm »

Uh, sure.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2016, 11:55:47 pm »

Did that Overtime Politics or whatever pollster reopen?
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2016, 11:56:35 pm »


Trafalgar was polling at least as early as the SC primary this year.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2016, 11:57:59 pm »

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2016, 11:59:18 pm »

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 12:00:13 am »

Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? Roll Eyes
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2016, 12:02:46 am »

I think Hillary wins it but probably not by much.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2016, 12:03:23 am »

do terrible right-wing pollsters every go bankrupt or do people just like being lied to?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2016, 12:03:44 am »
« Edited: November 06, 2016, 12:05:51 am by ApatheticAustrian »

NV has had many bad poll years but this must be the worst, if ralston is even in the same universe as the final vote.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2016, 12:05:27 am »

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?
Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2016, 12:06:14 am »

Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? Roll Eyes

We were told to disregard the AK SEN and CO SEN polls in 2014, and in the end those polls were spot on. "House Effects" or "Turnout misestimates" can always fade away over time.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2016, 12:08:00 am »

Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

doesn't really sound like it.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-predictions-campaign-14
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2016, 12:08:13 am »

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?
Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

I asked for a debunk of their math. We don't need Ralston or McDonald to see the numbers from NV, which are ~70% of all that will vote there. Debunk their numbers, not the men.
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