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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5  (Read 6007 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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Posts: 18,673
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« on: November 06, 2016, 12:00:13 am »

Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? Roll Eyes
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Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,673
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 12:11:34 am »

Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? Roll Eyes

We were told to disregard the AK SEN and CO SEN polls in 2014, and in the end those polls were spot on. "House Effects" or "Turnout misestimates" can always fade away over time.

The idea of Republicans narrowly winning those races wasn't inconceivable, though. Trump winning a state like NV with his numbers among Latinos in anything other than a 2014-style, low turnout environment makes absolutely no sense. Looking at the demographics and the early vote so far, it's much more likely that the polls are wrong (and they have been many times in Nevada.)
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