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Author Topic: OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1  (Read 5577 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: November 06, 2016, 05:30:26 am »

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Clinton 48%
Trump 47%

1136 RV, 10-25-11/5 (via mail), 2.9% MOE

SENATE: Portman - 58. Strickland - 37

From a senior reporter at the Columbus Dispatch:

Randy Ludlow ‏@RandyLudlow  1h1 hour ago Canal Winchester, OH
Virtual tie: @DispatchAlerts Poll shows Clinton with 1-point lead over Trump in Ohio. Story soon at http://Dispatch.com

Michael D. Dawson ‏@midawson  39m39 minutes ago
Columbus Dispatch poll has Clinton up one point and Portman up 21 points.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 09:41:15 am by Ozymandias »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 05:32:08 am »

Senate looks legit. Tremendous news!
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 05:33:08 am »

Seems way too far off from recent polls (consistent R+5 except Emerson tie) to really be believable.
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 05:42:19 am »

I'm pretty sure this is supposed to be a near-gold standard. Their final poll in 2012 had President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-48. This is definitely good news for the Clinton campaign.
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 05:48:57 am »

Seems way too far off from recent polls (consistent R+5 except Emerson tie) to really be believable.

Uh - this is the OH gold standard. This is good news for Clinton. But like all polling, we'll see.

Do people really not know this stuff?
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 05:58:34 am »

Excellent news.  Obviously a reason why Hillary and Co are continuing to push Ohio. 

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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2016, 06:09:38 am »

BANZAI!!!!
Clinton should eke out victory in OH.
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2016, 06:10:10 am »

The CD poll was pretty good so far, except in 2000 when they predicted Bush to beat Gore by 10 and he won by only 3.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2016, 06:10:50 am »

Ohio was never gone, and with Hillary's extensive ground game and Trump's lack there of, she can carry this state.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 06:13:05 am »

Woah...Back to tossup you go. Work that GOTV, Ohioans!
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2016, 06:15:05 am »

Does anyone know why there's no University of Cincinnati poll this year ?

They used to be the Gold Standard for OH ...
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2016, 06:27:13 am »

Seems way too far off from recent polls (consistent R+5 except Emerson tie) to really be believable.

Uh - this is the OH gold standard. This is good news for Clinton. But like all polling, we'll see.

Do people really not know this stuff?
"C+" according to 538 with D+1.1 house effect.  Worse than "B-"  Gravis.

But your definition of the gold standard is Hillary leading, so no worries Roll Eyes
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 06:29:43 am »

After looking into this one a bit, it seems it has a very weird methodology. I guess people "mail-in" their responses? I figure I should post this before Trump people jump all over it.

That said though, it has apparently been very accurate in previous elections, so we'll see.
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alomas
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 06:33:57 am »

This is Democratic version of Gravis. Trump is up in OH but maybe not a lot ahead, I'd say 2-3 points. EV looked good for him.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 06:35:53 am »

I wonder what this means about Michigan and Pennsylvania Smiley

This is Democratic version of Gravis.

Lol wtf no...
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2016, 06:36:12 am »

This is Democratic version of Gravis. Trump is up in OH but maybe not a lot ahead, I'd say 2-3 points. EV looked good for him.

Jesus, how deluded are you?
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2016, 06:38:25 am »

Still think that Trump will win carry Ohio by a narrow margin.

Man, Strickland is really imploding big league. What's wrong with this guy? This race was supposed to be a neck-in-neck.
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 06:40:00 am »

THE GOLD STANDARD
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2016, 06:42:23 am »

Jesus, how deluded are you?
""C+" according to 538 with D+1.1 house effect.  Worse than "B-"  Gravis. " 1.1 Democratic lean just as Gravis has 1.1 R lean Smiley
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Baki
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2016, 06:44:26 am »

I'd like to believe it but I kinda don't. The real number is probably T+1-2.

I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility, but if she wins it will be only just and thanks to her superior ground game.

Would be a nice surpise for me on election night.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 06:46:02 am by Baki »Logged

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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2016, 07:01:14 am »

I'd like to believe it but I kinda don't. The real number is probably T+1-2.

I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility, but if she wins it will be only just and thanks to her superior ground game.

Would be a nice surpise for me on election night.

Two days ago, I would have predicted the state for Trump. But now with this and Hillary's late push in the state, I think it's as close to a pure toss-up as any state right now. Early voting in Ohio goes until 2PM on Monday. I do think if she wins, it will be a result of a vastly superior ground game and the Ohio Republican Party ground game sitting on its hands as far as the presidential race goes. Ohio Republicans seem to have been putting all their effort into reelecting Portman and even he's apparently actively courting Hillary supporters. And on top of that, with the news that Kasich didn't vote for Trump, I think Ohio is going to be very close (less than 2%, maybe even less than 1% for the winner).
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heatcharger
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2016, 07:23:59 am »

Here's the article:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Clinton 48%
Trump 47%

« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 07:27:28 am by heatcharger »Logged

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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2016, 07:28:11 am »

Don't be surprised if Hillary wins Ohio. Trump sheep seem to think their guy has all these battlegrounds locked up because of poll tightening, but they're in for a bad night. It's going to be fun to watch Smiley
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2016, 07:30:39 am »

Ugh, tough one to predict now.

Obviously Trump's night is going to be over very quickly if he loses here.
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2016, 08:00:14 am »

Quote
The poll results indicate that if the Clinton campaign can get young and minority voters to the polls, she almost certainly will win

Bernie, Obama, y'all got time for an extra stop?
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