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Author Topic: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)  (Read 1582 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: November 06, 2016, 07:37:19 am »
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http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/486bf15f-bd24-43fa-988f-79ba63efc430.pdf

NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4

Compared to    OCT. 13-17   

Clinton    51 (-3)
Trump    34  (+4)
Johnson   5
Stein        2
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 07:39:25 am »
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Bill Mitchell in 3... 2... 1...

They oversampled Democrats by 21 points, it's a toss-up then!

Tongue
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:40:23 am »
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Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 07:40:54 am »
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Low-energy margins in blue states are actually a good thing. If she's leading by 4-5 points nationally, that means she's making up for it in competitive states.

I'm not saying I actually believe that logic, but it's fun to think about. Smiley
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 07:41:10 am »
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Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 07:42:20 am »
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Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2016, 07:44:50 am »
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Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2016, 07:46:20 am »
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Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" Sad

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2016, 07:47:54 am »
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Well, this is evidence against Hillary running up her numbers in some blue states and having none left for the middle-of-the-road ones.
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 07:52:07 am »
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Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2016, 07:55:44 am »
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Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" Sad

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Repeat after me: 538 is not gospel, neither are their pollster ratings. They can be helpful, but by putting them in the title your trying to tell us how repudatable a poll is before seeing it, which you shouldnt be doing.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2016, 07:56:27 am »
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For some reason Siena paints an extremely rosy picture for New York Republicans in almost every poll.
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 09:33:34 am »
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Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.

You might be right. I may be a bit overconfident with that claim, but I think Trump will end up in Romney or Bush 2000 territory (34-36% statewide). He might get Staten Island, but the remaining four boroughs are going to be some of the most hideous results for Republicans on record. I think the main four will swing to Hillary over 2012, with Hillary getting above 80% in Queens and possibly close to 90% in Brooklyn. If someone like Dov Hikind has denounced Trump (of course, his lunacy would never lead him personally to Clinton), I expect the Hasidic areas to swing back to Clinton. If she gets Borough Park and the like, she's going to get a record number out of NYC, regardless of how Staten Island goes. To be perfectly honestly, I can't help but wonder if Manhattan goes above 90% for Hillary. I wonder if there are that many sane Republicans there to make that happen. After all, Trump lost his own back yard of Manhattan to John Kasich.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 10:27:01 am »
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Well, this is evidence against Hillary running up her numbers in some blue states and having none left for the middle-of-the-road ones.

That's far more of an issue in CA and TX (losing by 7 instead of 17).  I expect Trump > Romney in all of the NE states.
Yeah. Trump is extremely lucky that Hispanics are concentrated there.
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 10:29:42 am »

New Poll: New York President by Siena Research Institute on 2016-11-04

Summary: D: 51%, R: 34%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2016, 10:30:04 am »
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Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.

You might be right. I may be a bit overconfident with that claim, but I think Trump will end up in Romney or Bush 2000 territory (34-36% statewide). He might get Staten Island, but the remaining four boroughs are going to be some of the most hideous results for Republicans on record. I think the main four will swing to Hillary over 2012, with Hillary getting above 80% in Queens and possibly close to 90% in Brooklyn. If someone like Dov Hikind has denounced Trump (of course, his lunacy would never lead him personally to Clinton), I expect the Hasidic areas to swing back to Clinton. If she gets Borough Park and the like, she's going to get a record number out of NYC, regardless of how Staten Island goes. To be perfectly honestly, I can't help but wonder if Manhattan goes above 90% for Hillary. I wonder if there are that many sane Republicans there to make that happen. After all, Trump lost his own back yard of Manhattan to John Kasich.

Hmm, the swings in NYC should be interesting. I'm thinking Staten Island will swing HARD to Trump and Manhattan will swing pretty hard to Clinton.

I also think Queens probably swings to Trump but I'm not too sure about what'll happen with The Bronx and Brooklyn (many competing factors at play in them).

I do expect Trump to be considerably stronger upstate than Romney as well.
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2016, 10:52:38 am »
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Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.

You might be right. I may be a bit overconfident with that claim, but I think Trump will end up in Romney or Bush 2000 territory (34-36% statewide). He might get Staten Island, but the remaining four boroughs are going to be some of the most hideous results for Republicans on record. I think the main four will swing to Hillary over 2012, with Hillary getting above 80% in Queens and possibly close to 90% in Brooklyn. If someone like Dov Hikind has denounced Trump (of course, his lunacy would never lead him personally to Clinton), I expect the Hasidic areas to swing back to Clinton. If she gets Borough Park and the like, she's going to get a record number out of NYC, regardless of how Staten Island goes. To be perfectly honestly, I can't help but wonder if Manhattan goes above 90% for Hillary. I wonder if there are that many sane Republicans there to make that happen. After all, Trump lost his own back yard of Manhattan to John Kasich.

Hmm, the swings in NYC should be interesting. I'm thinking Staten Island will swing HARD to Trump and Manhattan will swing pretty hard to Clinton.

I also think Queens probably swings to Trump but I'm not too sure about what'll happen with The Bronx and Brooklyn (many competing factors at play in them).

I do expect Trump to be considerably stronger upstate than Romney as well.

I would bet good money that Brooklyn goes toward Trump at least a bit.  The Italian/Greek and Russian Jewish southern part will swing toward Trump while the rest of it is already maxed out for the Dems.

I also think Trump only takes a 20 point loss in NYS (versus 26.5 for Romney).  NYC will be roughly even with swings by certain groups in opposite directions.  LI will be way more pro Trump.  Westchester/Rockland will be about even.  Trump does way better in Upstate.  Romney lost Erie/Monroe/Onondaga/Albany counties by a combined 19/20 points, Trump will be under by only 10-15 points and he does better in the other upstate counties as well.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 11:00:05 am by Absolution9 »Logged
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 10:55:27 am »
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Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" Sad

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2016, 11:00:45 am »
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Hmm, the swings in NYC should be interesting. I'm thinking Staten Island will swing HARD to Trump and Manhattan will swing pretty hard to Clinton.

I also think Queens probably swings to Trump but I'm not too sure about what'll happen with The Bronx and Brooklyn (many competing factors at play in them).

I do expect Trump to be considerably stronger upstate than Romney as well.

I think it's interesting that we disagree on Queens. (Yeah, I didn't mention The Bronx, but mostly because I don't think Hillary can squeeze any more votes out of there than Obama did in 2012.)

How do you see each borough voting in terms of margins? I do share your view that Trump will easily win Staten Island. I just don't see him making gains anywhere else in NYC, and I think the swing against him in Manhattan will far override any gains he gets in Staten Island and then some.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2016, 11:09:09 am »
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Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" Sad

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
Yeah, so?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2016, 11:40:38 am »
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It looks like Hillary won't crack 60% in NY this election, just like President Obama did twice.
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2016, 12:01:37 pm »
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Bill Mitchell in 3... 2... 1...

They oversampled Democrats by 21 points, it's a toss-up then!

Tongue

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/795069258644525057
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2016, 12:28:17 pm »
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Obvious junk. RIP Siena's pollster rating.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2016, 01:17:20 pm »
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Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" Sad

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
Yeah, so?

It means these ratings are largely worthless
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2016, 01:31:34 pm »
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Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" Sad

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
Yeah, so?

It means these ratings are largely worthless

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“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
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