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Author Topic: Final NBC/WSJ National: Clinton +4/+5  (Read 1838 times)
heatcharger
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« on: November 06, 2016, 09:00:28 am »

Link.

Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

The poll was conducted Nov. 3-5 of 1,282 likely voters (including more than 600 reached by cell phone), and it has a MOE of ±2.7%.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 09:06:00 am by heatcharger »Logged

BoAtlantis
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 09:01:12 am »

Still solid
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Snek!
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 09:01:27 am »

That's about right, I reckon. 8% don't know who to vote for? I am guessing half of them won't actually vote.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 09:01:43 am »

That's about right, I reckon.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 09:01:50 am »

Good enough.
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Castro
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 09:02:49 am »

Quote
Looking inside the numbers of the two-way horserace, Clinton is ahead of Trump among women (53 percent to 38 percent), African Americans (86 percent to 7 percent), Latinos (65 percent to 20 percent) and those ages 18-34 (55 percent to 32 percent).

Trump, meanwhile, leads among men (47 percent to 42 percent), seniors (49 percent to 42 percent) and whites (53 percent to 38 percent).

But there's a significant difference among whites: Those without college degrees are breaking for Trump by a 2-to-1 margin, 60 percent to 30 percent.

Yet among whites with college degrees, Clinton is ahead by 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent.
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alomas
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2016, 09:03:26 am »

Not too terrible for Trump for a poll that he was down double-digits in October.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2016, 09:03:40 am »

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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2016, 09:04:21 am »

Where is the other 8%?  Crazy for a final poll.
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dspNY
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 09:04:43 am »

Not too terrible for Trump for a poll that he was down double-digits in October.

He actually was down close to double-digits 3 weeks ago. NBC and ABC have converged on Clinton +5 (there's your A+ and A pollsters)
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2016, 09:05:57 am »

We'll take it!
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Castro
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2016, 09:07:16 am »

Interesting numbers here:

Quote
The NBC/WSJ poll also finds 52 percent of likely voters saying they would be comfortable and prepared to support Clinton as president if she wins on Tuesday night, versus 46 percent who say they wouldn't be comfortable.

That's compared with just 43 percent of likely voters who say they would be comfortable with Trump as president. Fifty-four percent say they'd be uncomfortable.

43% would be comfortable with Trump, and that's the same number he gets in the 2-way. I wonder if this implies a heavy break towards Clinton in the end.


Also, this poll is pretty light on Asians.
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alomas
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 09:08:17 am »

NBC/WSJ:

10/10 - 10/13 - Clinton up 11
10/8 - 10/10 - Clinton up 8
10/8 - 10/9 - Clinton up 11

I doubt he was down 10 points, rather 7 or 8 at worst Smiley

But nationally Clinton's ahead, 2-3 points.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 09:08:35 am »

Where is the other 8%?  Crazy for a final poll.

Abstain or third party.

Not too terrible for Trump for a poll that he was down double-digits in October.

That was right after pussytape, the nadir of Trump's campaign.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 09:13:34 am »

Not too terrible for Trump for a poll that he was down double-digits in October.

He actually was down close to double-digits 3 weeks ago. NBC and ABC have converged on Clinton +5 (there's your A+ and A pollsters)
Yeah. The both showed double digits lead +11/+12 when race was about C+7. ~4% off

So now it is about Clinton +1-3, consistent with other "A" polls Smiley

IBD/TIPP            T+1                 A-
Marist                 C+1                A
Fox News            C+2                 A
CBS News           C+3                 A-
NBC/WSJ             C+4                 A-
ABC                     C+5                A+

On average  C+2.33


Will Selzer and Monmouth have a nationall polls?
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 09:16:19 am by Little Big BREXIT »Logged

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2016, 09:15:46 am »

Not too terrible for Trump for a poll that he was down double-digits in October.

He actually was down close to double-digits 3 weeks ago. NBC and ABC have converged on Clinton +5 (there's your A+ and A pollsters)
Yeah. The both showed double digits lead +11/+12 when race was about C+7. ~4% off

So now it is about Clinton +1-3, consistent with other "A" polls Smiley

IBD/TIPP            T+1                 A-
Marist                 C+1                A
Fox News            C+2                 A
CBS News           C+3                 A-
NBC/WSJ             C+4                 A-
ABC                     C+5                A+

On average  C+2.33

Your unskewing. Smiley
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mark_twain
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2016, 09:15:58 am »

Good enough.

Even though the last poll was higher, this poll makes the numbers of both polls more credible.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 09:16:43 am »

It's definitely tough to see how Trump pulls this off.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2016, 09:17:13 am »

Not too terrible for Trump for a poll that he was down double-digits in October.

He actually was down close to double-digits 3 weeks ago. NBC and ABC have converged on Clinton +5 (there's your A+ and A pollsters)
Yeah. The both showed double digits lead +11/+12 when race was about C+7. ~4% off

So now it is about Clinton +1-3, consistent with other "A" polls Smiley

IBD/TIPP            T+1                 A-
Marist                 C+1                A
Fox News            C+2                 A
CBS News           C+3                 A-
NBC/WSJ             C+4                 A-
ABC                     C+5                A+

On average  C+2.33

Your unskewing. Smiley

Huh Average ≠ unskewing?


Quote
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538  9m9 minutes ago
Average of 6 most recent live-caller national polls has Clinton +2.3 points. 538's popular vote estimate is Clinton +2.9.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 09:18:58 am by Little Big BREXIT »Logged

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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2016, 09:53:16 am »

Trump is sweating worse than when a guy tried to assassinate him with a sign.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2016, 09:59:59 am »

"Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent."

I could only get those numbers to work out for the head-to-head case, provided that 55+% (!) of the sample (at least 660/1200) had voted early.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2016, 10:38:40 am »

Looking forward to Johnson getting 6%!
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Elizabeth Warren 2020
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2016, 10:50:52 am »

These numbers displease me. Hillary uses hits 50% in the 2 way with NBC polls. Not that the popular vote matters much, but still.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2016, 11:07:55 am »

This looks... about right
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2016, 01:44:56 pm »

Looking forward to Johnson getting 6%!

Prepare to be very disappointed.
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