Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 21, 2019, 08:53:10 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH  (Read 2399 times)
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,220
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 06, 2016, 09:41:17 am »

Link.

Florida:

Rubio 47%
Murphy 44%

Ohio:

Portman 52%
Strickland 39%
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,220
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 09:41:51 am »

If Rubio survives by a hair while Dems simultaneously lose in IN, MO, and NC, heads need to roll at the DSCC.
Logged
Vega
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,263
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 09:54:35 am »

Florida would definitely have (would?) benefited from a massive ad blitz by the DSCC.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,971
Finland


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 10:13:53 am »

Florida would definitely have (would?) benefited from a massive ad blitz by the DSCC.
At the expense of how many other seats?
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,980
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 10:21:11 am »

Yeah, I think Rubio won't win by more than 4 or 5 points anymore.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,971
Finland


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 10:24:04 am »

Flawlesssssssssss... Beautiful.... MARCOOOOOOO!
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,849
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2016, 10:26:35 am »

Even if he wins by a small margin, I don't think running a lot of ads against him would have changed anything.

Rubio is well defined. When you are Marco Rubio, you are hated or beloved, there is no mittleground.
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,490



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2016, 11:01:00 am »

I don't think money would have helped in FL, the Dems needed a better candidate.
Logged
swf541
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,212


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2016, 11:07:48 am »

Even if he wins by a small margin, I don't think running a lot of ads against him would have changed anything.

Rubio is well defined. When you are Marco Rubio, you are hated or beloved, there is no mittleground.


Agreed, Graham should have run instead of Murphy as well.  Or heck even through Crist in would be better.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,849
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 11:14:06 am »

And I don't understand the bashing of Murphy, he's a decent candidate.
Logged
politicallefty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,560
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -9.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2016, 11:14:50 am »

Florida would definitely have (would?) benefited from a massive ad blitz by the DSCC.
At the expense of how many other seats?

I agree. Florida is an expensive state. A massive ad blitz for a state like Florida would be something along the lines of at $10 million, if not even breaking $20 million. If Hillary wins, I think she needs to begin her oppo research immediately and discredit and destroy him if he attempts to run against her in 2020. Truthfully though, I think Rubio's best opportunity for the Presidency is to wait until 2024. If he could gather more experience and get his name on a major piece of legislation under a Clinton Presidency, such as immigration reform, he'd be the most formidable opponent.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,591
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2016, 12:24:05 pm »

Murphy was a strong candidate on paper, but to beat Rubio Democrats would have needed someone to cut into his margins with Hispanics.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,487
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 12:41:56 pm »

If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,971
Finland


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 12:55:33 pm »

If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Always easier to say in hindsight.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,731
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 03:11:46 pm »

If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Always easier to say in hindsight.

Many of us have said it in foresight.
Logged
Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,501
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2016, 04:33:47 pm »

FBM Purple heart is still going to win easily. If the polls are undersampling Hispanics, this will definitely benefit Hillary, but not Murphy at all.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,487
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2016, 04:38:17 pm »

If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Always easier to say in hindsight.

I constantly said that the Democrats shouldn't have been so quick to pull out of Florida. If Bayh pulls off a win in Indiana, and Rubio wins by at least 4-5%, then I'll stand corrected, and the DSCC made the right call.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,971
Finland


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 04:42:55 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2016, 04:44:31 pm by DavidB. »

FBM Purple heart is still going to win easily. If the polls are undersampling Hispanics, this will definitely benefit Hillary, but not Murphy at all.
Not entirely true. Hispanics will still vote for Murphy by a substantial margin, though much smaller than Clinton's will be. If Hispanics are undersampled this means FBM's lead isn't as large as projected, which is what I expect. He will win by 2-3.

I constantly said that the Democrats shouldn't have been so quick to pull out of Florida.
Fair enough.
Logged
Speaker OneJ
OneJ_
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,134
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2016, 02:06:28 am »

If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Always easier to say in hindsight.

I constantly said that the Democrats shouldn't have been so quick to pull out of Florida. If Bayh pulls off a win in Indiana, and Rubio wins by at least 4-5%, then I'll stand corrected, and the DSCC made the right call.

You might actually be right. It all comes down to the Latino vote though (a sizeable # are uncomfortable with Rubio, particularly).
Logged
Shadows
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,609
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2016, 06:37:22 am »

DSCC Can spend a 100M on Florida & Rubio will still eek out a 4-5% win in the end. Take it to the bank. This race is fools gold.

Missouri, NC & NH with cheaper tv ads should be the target rather than wasting money on an idiot like Murphy!
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC