How does Trump win MI?

[Spark]

[ApatheticAustrian]

low AA turnout in detroit, big turnout in republican regions.

[Incipimus iterum]

If Detroit becomes its own state or country.

[Ljube]

Easy. Working class whites are normally Dem voters. Each vote he scores counts for two. And then, there is the black turnout, which will be lower by at least 20%. Plus the blacks in Michigan like Trump more than the southern blacks.

[Angel of Death]

By poisoning the water supply, making people lose IQ points.

[win win]

Polling in MI is poor. There's a greater chance he pulls a Sander-esque upset , especially if Detroit blacks don't turn out.

[Young Conservative]

I believe it might happen. Turnout might be unexpected in the state, something not accounted for in most major polls. That's the only way he wins: High working class white turnout and low turnout for everyone else.

[Rand]

He runs in 1988 or two or three cycles from now. Dream on Trump sheep.

[Podgy the Bear]

He doesn't.  An evolving 3-5 point lead for Hillary nationally; Trump will not run that far ahead to the right of the mean.

[White Trash]

low AA turnout in detroit, big turnout in republican regions.

It really is a game of demographic turnout at this point. Michigan is a state where the GOP better hope the shy Trump voter effect exists and that the Black turnout really does drop significantly.

[pbrower2a]

Whites-only election or property-owners-only election.

[BlueSwan]

Trump can only win if the polls in Michigan are systematically wrong, as Clinton is leading all of the polls in Michigan (except for a couple of tied ones).

[win win]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MI/president/

16% of the electorate was black in 2012.   -> 13% in 2016.
The independents split on Romney/Obama.  -> break for him 60/40 this time around, or breaks 55/45 for him, but he gets more crossover Dems who like his message.

That would close the 9% gap he lost by in 2012. Optimistic but possible.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

He can't. He consistently polls 41-44% there, never breaking 45%. Hillary consistently polls 47-50%, including a recent poll from Mitchell at 51%.

[win win]

He can't. He consistently polls 41-44% there, never breaking 45%. Hillary consistently polls 47-50%, including a recent poll from Mitchell at 51%.

The polls assume high black turnout. Early absentee voting indicates otherwise (more independents ,less blacks).

Mitchell is hardly a reputable pollster. They missed Bernie by 20+ points. To believe the polls in Michigan, you have to believe they will get it within 3 points, because that's how much Trump is behind.
The margin of error in Michigan is big and Trump is within that margin of error.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I don't see how he does it, unless something unforeseen is happening right now that hasn't reflected itself in polling.  And I can't begin to imagine what this could be.

Trump's road to victory is through CO, OH, IA, NC, FL, and NV, with NH providing some backup.

[DavidB.]

He doesn't.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I dont think he will either.

He should focus on Colorado and Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

He needs one or two of those to get to 270.

[zorkpolitics]

He wins if:
Black turnout drops by 3 percentage points.
The UP, traditionally union democrats, flips to Trump.
And he still will need both a 10-20% increase in independents and then to win independents by 10%.

Since MI has not gone Republican since 1972, the Democratic ground game is much less active here than in other battle ground states, which may allow Trump to bring out more Trump voters without the Democrats bringing out more Democrats

[°Leprechaun]

It's not likely, but the Dems are not ignoring the state which means that they are concerned.

[Hammy]

He can't. He consistently polls 41-44% there, never breaking 45%. Hillary consistently polls 47-50%, including a recent poll from Mitchell at 51%.

If you're thinking he can't win, he definitely can't.

[TDAS04]

He doesn't.

[Maxwell]

He doesn't.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

He wins if:
Black turnout drops by 3 percentage points.
The UP, traditionally union democrats, flips to Trump.
And he still will need both a 10-20% increase in independents and then to win independents by 10%.

Since MI has not gone Republican since 1972, the Democratic ground game is much less active here than in other battle ground states, which may allow Trump to bring out more Trump voters without the Democrats bringing out more Democrats

You forgot 1984.

I agree on the substance.

[°Leprechaun]

He wins if:
Black turnout drops by 3 percentage points.
The UP, traditionally union democrats, flips to Trump.
And he still will need both a 10-20% increase in independents and then to win independents by 10%.

Since MI has not gone Republican since 1972, the Democratic ground game is much less active here than in other battle ground states, which may allow Trump to bring out more Trump voters without the Democrats bringing out more Democrats

You forgot 1984.

I agree on the substance.

1976