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Author Topic: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3  (Read 1321 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: November 06, 2016, 10:41:59 pm »

DEVELOPING

Trump 43
Clinton 40
Johnson 8
Stein 3

Clinton leads early vote 48-41.
Trump leads election day vote 44-38.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 10:45:07 pm by Lief 🐋 »Logged

fuck nazis
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 10:42:37 pm »

Nice
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 10:42:45 pm »

Too bad
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 10:42:56 pm »

R+18.
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 10:43:30 pm »

Very divergent results between Ohio and Florida. Interesting
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 10:43:34 pm »

Either this or Columbus Dispatch. Let's see who's right.
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2016, 10:43:41 pm »

R+18.

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2016, 10:44:32 pm »

Link?
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2016, 10:44:35 pm »

Certainly possible. Within the range of what we've seen here recently. Their combined results so far, however, are a bit confusing.
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 10:45:31 pm »

This is the junkiest polling company I have ever seen in my life. Give me GRAVIS MARKETING!
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2016, 10:45:34 pm »

R+18.

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

They both look like trash to me. Hillary isn't going to win FL by 8 and she's not winning tons of Republicans. For this one, there's no way her lead in the early vote isn't bigger, and undecideds/Johnson are way too high.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2016, 10:45:55 pm »

Given this is a democratic aligned poll this should be encouraging for trump
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 10:46:05 pm »

R+18.

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

No. FL is R+0.

/s I was obviously just kidding, lol. I don't trust polling at all, though TargetSmart usually leans Democratic, so this is probably good news for Trump. Or TargetSmart is just a very, very bad pollster.
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 10:46:31 pm »

A Hillary win isn't out of the question, but Trump is probably the one to bet on here. 323-215 it is.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 10:47:40 pm »

A Hillary win isn't out of the question, but Trump is probably the one to bet on here. 323-215 it is.

I think they're under-egging Clinton's early-vote numbers, honestly. But we're at the point where I just sit back and see where we end up.
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2016, 10:48:48 pm »

A Hillary win isn't out of the question, but Trump is probably the one to bet on here. 323-215 it is.

I think they're under-egging Clinton's early-vote numbers, honestly. But we're at the point where I just sit back and see where we end up.

Certainly couldn't be a bigger difference with YouGov, who found HRC+30. Somewhere in between.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2016, 10:50:24 pm »

I think I'm still comfortable calling Ohio a toss-up.  I guess slight advantage Trump, but I honestly think Clinton GOTV can eke out a win for her.  We don't have to wait long until we find out.
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 10:53:18 pm »

R+18.

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

They're both partisan garbage polls--if Trump is up 3 here, he probably wins Ohio by 6. This poll erases any tiny remainder if doubt I have about Trump winning the state.
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2016, 10:54:30 pm »

nah....nothing we know assumes that trump is up by 6.

i think they are on the money here, even while their FL findings are trash.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2016, 10:54:54 pm »

R+18.

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

They're both partisan garbage polls--if Trump is up 3 here, he probably wins Ohio by 6. This poll erases any tiny remainder if doubt I have about Trump winning the state.

But a partisan Republican poll just came out showing Trump +1 in Ohio...
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2016, 10:55:26 pm »

bonier made mention to caution that the women's share of the early vote is unprecedented and if it continues on election day could prove to hand the state to hillary
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2016, 10:55:37 pm »

R+18.

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

They're both partisan garbage polls--if Trump is up 3 here, he probably wins Ohio by 6. This poll erases any tiny remainder if doubt I have about Trump winning the state.

A D partisan poll that's significantly under-reporting  Clinton's early vote?

The real-world data is telling a radically different story to this poll.
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2016, 10:59:05 pm »

They both look like trash to me. Hillary isn't going to win FL by 8 and she's not winning tons of Republicans. For this one, there's no way her lead in the early vote isn't bigger, and undecideds/Johnson are way too high.

The EV results are pretty consistent with the Columbus Dispatch poll:

OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."

Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32)
https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2016, 10:59:14 pm »

"How stupid are the people of Ohio?"
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2016, 11:00:48 pm »

However, YouGov did find a much bigger Clinton EV advantage:

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/

OHIO

Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 33

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