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  OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
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Author Topic: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3  (Read 1514 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2016, 12:04:30 am »

I have been consistent in seeing Trump as a tossup (Trump) state for quite some time....

It appears that we had a Trump bump starting about three weeks ago, when many of the Republicans came home to the henhouse....

Still, many Dems are coming home as well, in a state with an extremely large number of college students .

Ultimately, it will come down to GOTV and turnout, and how White Union members, including Electricians and Carpenters, and with legacy Union voters in a state that has a strong history of labor activism from the Toledo auto-strike of '34 to the Youngstown "Little Steel Strike" of '37 (Indirectly creating the rise of the CIO), and the Akron Rubber Strike of '36.

Although Trump is attempting to appeal very hard to these communities, he is fighting against the wind in communities that fought & died with blood, sweat, and tears, to bring the unions in and create a closed shop at the height of the Great Depression with a Democratic President in power.

There is a history in the collective memories of these communities that is not easily forgotten even 60-70 years later, about the time where the bosses tried to divide working people, and pit workers against each on the basis of race, ethnicity, and religion.

Still, I think we will be staying up late Tuesday/ early Wednesday before we see Ohio being called.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2016, 12:12:51 am »

Mark my words, here and now. Trump takes Ohio by about +5.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #27 on: November 07, 2016, 12:14:30 am »

Mark my words, here and now. Trump takes Ohio by about +5.

so.....maybe up to 10 points difference to WI?
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2016, 12:22:05 am »

Mark my words, here and now. Trump takes Ohio by about +5.

so.....maybe up to 10 points difference to WI?

Wouldn't surprise me, given the polling and other signs that Ohio (Along with Iowa and now perhaps Michigan) is ahead of the game in the realignment of the Midwest we're now seeing. 2016 I think is the first solid evidence we've gotten of what is to come, with the East Coast states sliding to the Dems while the Midwest reorients to the Republicans.

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Xing
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« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2016, 01:17:02 am »

Mark my words, here and now. Trump takes Ohio by about +5.

Quoting this for Tuesday.
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Reds4
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« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2016, 01:51:15 am »

If Trump had a ground game in Ohio he would win the state, without one.. it's going to be really close.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2016, 05:25:20 am »

Bit of a pompous name for a pollster to have, no?
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