Over/Under: Clinton +5 nationally
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  Over/Under: Clinton +5 nationally		 « previous next »
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Question: Over/Under: Clinton +5 nationally
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Total Voters: 65

Author Topic: Over/Under: Clinton +5 nationally  (Read 943 times)
Iosif
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« on: November 07, 2016, 06:40:59 AM »
I think she beats Obama's 2008 margin.

Democrats consistently outperform the polls in Presidential years.

Except in Austria of course.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2016, 06:44:37 AM »
I think she gets over:

1. Democrats have a huge ground game advantage
2. A lot of polls may be underestimating her totals with nonwhites/hispanics.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2016, 06:46:00 AM »
Quote from: Iosif on November 07, 2016, 06:40:59 AM
I think she beats Obama's 2008 margin.
That seems very optimistic. The poll herding is looking like it might converge at around Clinton +3. So she would have to overperform that by more than 4 points?
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TC 25
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2016, 07:05:15 AM »
Clinton by 2.6
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Lachi
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2016, 07:08:52 AM »
I think it'll be Clinton +6-7, with an EC total between '08 and '12.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2016, 07:09:45 AM »
I'd put "under", but with the new CBS/EV and GOTV I'd have to change to "over".
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2016, 07:12:24 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2016, 07:29:28 AM by BlueSwan »
I'm thinking Clinton by 3,2%. EDIT: Actually, make that 3,6%.
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LLR
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2016, 07:13:33 AM »
Slightly under. Clinton +3.7 is where i have it
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2016, 07:14:35 AM »
c+2 and we will be happy.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2016, 07:19:44 AM »
Obama over-performed his polling average by a decent amount, given the same factors (clearly from the national polling we've seen) Latino under-polling and LV screens remain a problem for pollsters. I'm saying over, and I feel oddly confident about that.
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2016, 07:22:22 AM »
I'm feeling reasonably confident she gets around Obama's 08 margin, actually. I think polling has undersold the amount of Hispanics polled, and add the differences between ground games/etc, and....
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2016, 07:40:29 AM »
Is there no option for "dead on"? Because I think she wins by 5.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2016, 07:46:06 AM »
Quote from: LLR on November 07, 2016, 07:13:33 AM
Slightly under. Clinton +3.7 is where i have it
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Donnie
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2016, 07:46:48 AM »
Definitely UNDER. Clinton 2-2.5% at this moment.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2016, 08:13:06 AM »
Over. Obama won by 3.9 in 2012. No way Hillary will win by less than 5.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2016, 08:22:29 AM »
Under.  Even if she wins, we're looking at a close race.  I truly believe in the shy Trump factor, but I'm not sure if it will be big enough to put him over the top.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2016, 10:14:48 AM »
Well under. Three points, tops. Trump is going to outperform McCain and Romney at this point.
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Mallow
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2016, 10:16:09 AM »
Quote from: Maxwell on November 07, 2016, 07:40:29 AM
Is there no option for "dead on"? Because I think she wins by 5.

Haha, that's what I was thinking. But I gave her the benefit of the doubt and assumed Clinton+5.1 Tongue
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