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Author Topic: OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1  (Read 5822 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #50 on: November 06, 2016, 02:01:22 pm »

The CD poll was pretty good so far, except in 2000 when they predicted Bush to beat Gore by 10 and he won by only 3.

Because of the last second DUI story, obviously. Most polls in 2000 were way off due to that. Dubya probably would've won in a landslide if it never happened.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #51 on: November 06, 2016, 02:06:33 pm »

One interesting thing about the demographics break down of the poll is that its about 88% white while the state's voting age population is closer to 83%. Not saying the real world demographics are going to represent election day, but if the actual results reflect this poll, then there's still room for dems to grow in Ohio by increasing minority turnout next election.

As for Portman vs Stricklan, the short of the long is, Portman went on air early with very misleading ads claiming his opponent destroyed the Ohio economy (which isn't true, as he was governor during the 08 economic collapse, not his fault) which has really set the race early.

Every race has a deluge of negative ads. Toomey and the Republicans have run tons against McGinty as well. I don't get why it had such an effect in Ohio but basically none in other races, since they more or less cancel each other out. For whatever reason it seems like Dems have a very low floor in Ohio that isn't present in other states.
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izixs
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« Reply #52 on: November 06, 2016, 02:28:20 pm »

One interesting thing about the demographics break down of the poll is that its about 88% white while the state's voting age population is closer to 83%. Not saying the real world demographics are going to represent election day, but if the actual results reflect this poll, then there's still room for dems to grow in Ohio by increasing minority turnout next election.

As for Portman vs Stricklan, the short of the long is, Portman went on air early with very misleading ads claiming his opponent destroyed the Ohio economy (which isn't true, as he was governor during the 08 economic collapse, not his fault) which has really set the race early.

Every race has a deluge of negative ads. Toomey and the Republicans have run tons against McGinty as well. I don't get why it had such an effect in Ohio but basically none in other races, since they more or less cancel each other out. For whatever reason it seems like Dems have a very low floor in Ohio that isn't present in other states.

Part of it may be fitting with the Kasich narrative that he 'saved' Ohio as he got elected at the start of the recovery and is fairly popular here (though obviously not with me). If Kasich had lined up behind Trump and proclaimed that Trump was the bee's knees for the economy, the race might not be close in Ohio.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #53 on: November 06, 2016, 03:44:23 pm »

A self-selecting mail poll of RVs seems... problematic. I don't see any mention of a likely voter screen?
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Hammy
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« Reply #54 on: November 06, 2016, 06:39:52 pm »

A self-selecting mail poll of RVs seems... problematic. I don't see any mention of a likely voter screen?

That's quite the strange poll method.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #55 on: November 06, 2016, 06:47:19 pm »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #56 on: November 06, 2016, 06:49:28 pm »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Wow.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #57 on: November 06, 2016, 06:56:00 pm »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.
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🌈Rainbow Jihad
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« Reply #58 on: November 06, 2016, 07:04:06 pm »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

That's definitely gold standard material.  Why does Nate Silver still have a job?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #59 on: November 06, 2016, 07:06:51 pm »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.
Did Lit Digest nail the margins or just get the winner right?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #60 on: November 06, 2016, 07:07:59 pm »

So why is the "populist" Strickland doing 22 points worse than the far right neoliberal shill warmongering Wall Street banker bitch? I mean, his opponent is a mild mannered gay marriage supporting Bush budget director and former US trade representative. Pretty much the antithesis of a "populist." I thought "populism" was the key to Democratic success! I thought "populism" was popular! This can't be, Atlas told me these irrefutable facts! This state should be a Trump/Strickland landslide!
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #61 on: November 06, 2016, 07:27:25 pm »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.
Did Lit Digest nail the margins or just get the winner right?

Their 1932 poll called FDR's margin within 1% of the actual result. Their 1924 poll had Coolidge's vote within 2% points. Not sure about 1920 or 1928.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 07:29:42 pm by realisticidealist »Logged
HokeyDood
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« Reply #62 on: November 06, 2016, 08:00:33 pm »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

SWEET SASSY MOLLASEY!!!  Great news!
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OneJ
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« Reply #63 on: November 06, 2016, 08:17:04 pm »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

I knew Ohio wasn't going red that easily. Cheesy
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Snek!
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« Reply #64 on: November 06, 2016, 08:22:18 pm »

So, this will act like Florida did last time and Florida will act more like Ohio did?
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RJEvans
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« Reply #65 on: November 06, 2016, 08:50:44 pm »

As a Democrat, I really want FL, NC and OH, simply to deny Trump the talking point that he beat Romney's electoral vote performance. I'm not confident about NC and thought OH was gone several weeks ago. Hopefully this poll and the YouGov poll are on to something.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #66 on: November 10, 2016, 01:20:10 am »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.

So, yeah.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #67 on: November 10, 2016, 01:38:26 am »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.

So, yeah.

Sad! Though GOLD STANDARD Marquette also turned out to be terrible. Only Selzer is still good.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #68 on: November 10, 2016, 07:19:53 am »

Sad
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dalekmasterkilledme
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« Reply #69 on: November 10, 2016, 09:34:09 am »

TRUMP MAY NOT BECOME PRESIDENT!! Search "Trump may not become president Nakedtruth" in youtube and click in the first video.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #70 on: November 11, 2016, 12:16:19 am »

Junk Poll!
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