NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Told you.


Someone who wants to complain about 538's "stupid" trend lines?

Pretty bad. Wasn't their last one Clinton +7?

It was. Tightening

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Shy Trumpistas coming home

But not all of them  

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

Crosstabs from Sienna:

http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf
http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/3603bf1b-a0f6-4234-ba77-34eeadff55d0.pdf


Republican retain control 47%
Democrats take control    45%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Educated white women ----> Trump

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It was not what I said.

Educated white women --coming home--> Trump

And they are probably are coming from Johnson.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It was not what I said.

Educated white women --coming home--> Trump

... Let me try this again.

Graph says White, which includes White men and White women. Not Educated White women, not Educated White men, not White women, not White men, but ALL White voters.

You CANNOT say that Educated White women are "coming home" to Trump based on that.

So compared to Sept

Trump share grew by
+6 white
+3 black (but blacks are just 22% of voters)
-1  men
+8 women
+2 no college
+8 college or more.

And you still think that could happen without educated women coming home? Yeah, teoretically it could be some weird flows that could explain it like Trump losing among no-col men, but gaining among non-col women and col-men

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I can confirm that the Swedish education system is really awful, especially in math and statistics and especially over the last decade or so.

But we are best at genus science!!!!111

But not just educational system has worsened, dear Gustaf. So did police (no-go-zones), health and elderly care. Thank political correct left

And what about our liberal court of law? New trend among rapist: they claim they did it while sleeping... and a lot of them were freed by Swedish liberal court. Thank political correct left

especially over the last decade or so.

I wounder if it has something to do that Sweden switched from labour migration to asyl migration from Arabic and African countries. Especially over the last decade or so

http://www.migrationsverket.se/download/18.2d998ffc151ac3871599d0d/1462790765011/Beviljade%2Buppeh%C3%A5llstillst%C3%A5nd%2B1980-2015.pdf

No?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

"Mrs. Clinton leads among voters who have already cast their ballot by a nine-point margin, 49 percent to 40 percent. But Mr. Trump leads among those yet to vote by 17 points, 52 percent to 35 percent."

This implies that about 65% of their sample has already voted early.

63% according to crosstabs

[Erich Maria Remarque]

They've updated the model:

Clinton +1.1 is the call.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Now it is look much better. Is it base on two polls, or just latest one?

EDIT: OK, it based on all 3, but the latest poll is sort of basis.

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

Crosstabs from Sienna:

http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf
http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/3603bf1b-a0f6-4234-ba77-34eeadff55d0.pdf


Republican retain control 47%
Democrats take control    45%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Crosstabs from Sienna:

http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf
http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/3603bf1b-a0f6-4234-ba77-34eeadff55d0.pdf

Here

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It was not what I said.

Educated white women --coming home--> Trump

... Let me try this again.

Graph says White, which includes White men and White women. Not Educated White women, not Educated White men, not White women, not White men, but ALL White voters.

You CANNOT say that Educated White women are "coming home" to Trump based on that.

I guess we can put to rest that Sweden and other countries like it have the best education system in the world!

I can confirm that the Swedish education system is really awful, especially in math and statistics and especially over the last decade or so.

You are a confirmation of it all by yourself