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Author Topic: NC-Upshot/Siena: Burr +1  (Read 1190 times)
heatcharger
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« on: November 07, 2016, 08:05:24 am »

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html?referer=https://t.co/b6K2oygAcz

Burr 46%
Ross 45%
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King Francis I
windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2016, 08:11:32 am »

I really believe she's going to pull it out, on the three races MO/NC/IN I think she's the most likely.
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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2016, 08:33:20 am »

Only underperforming Clinton by 1 point? Yeah, Ross can pull this off if there's a slight polling error in her direction.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2016, 09:11:00 am »

Only underperforming Clinton by 1 point? Yeah, Ross can pull this off if there's a slight polling error in her direction.
If it's 44/44 in the presidential race and 46/45 for Burr in the senate race it technically means she is already overperforming Hillary; Burr is just overperforming Trump by more. But yes, Hillary will eventually win NC and that gives Ross the edge.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2016, 09:34:23 am »

I read that dems are stating to fear for this race- I wonder whether someone like Foxx or Kagan would have done better or whether Ross benefits from literally being a generic D
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DavidB.
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2016, 09:40:00 am »

I read that dems are stating to fear for this race- I wonder whether someone like Foxx or Kagan would have done better or whether Ross benefits from literally being a generic D
Ross is not "literally a generic D." She clearly has quite a left-wing profile. She's no McGinty, CCM or Murphy, and the GOP have consistently referred to her as "radical Ross" in attack ads. She could be the next Elizabeth Warren and I doubt a more moderate candidate would have done better than she does, so I think that from a progressive, Democratic perspective it was the right choice to have her as candidate. I still think she will win ftr.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2016, 10:20:51 am »

I read that dems are stating to fear for this race- I wonder whether someone like Foxx or Kagan would have done better or whether Ross benefits from literally being a generic D
Kagan was a Generic D when she first ran in 2008, but would be a strong candidate as she has built a high profile. Foxx would have been a strong recruit, but he would not run against Burr as he was instrumental in getting him appointed Secretary of Transportation.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2016, 12:32:13 pm »

This race is the toughest one for me to predict. I'm guessing that if Clinton wins NC by <1% or loses it, Burr wins. If she wins by 1-3%, it could go either way. If she wins by more than 3%, Ross wins. Pure Toss-Up.
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