Could tomorrow be the biggest polling error since 1948?
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Author Topic: Could tomorrow be the biggest polling error since 1948?  (Read 3730 times)
rafta_rafta
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« on: November 07, 2016, 12:08:23 PM »
The polls are unanimous - Clinton is heading for a comfortable victory.

For Trump to win, there needs to be a systematic polling error of 3-4 points in one direction. Is this possible? Has it ever happened since Dewey - Truman?
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2016, 12:10:39 PM »
Obama 2012?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2016, 12:10:49 PM »
They were off by a lot in 1996, but Bill was leading by so much that it had no impact on the winner. Not sure of the exact numbers.
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Confused Democrat
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2016, 12:11:33 PM »
If there is one, it will skew in Clinton's favor not Trumps.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2016, 12:11:44 PM »
Since 2000, the party in power usually overperforma the polls. Seems highly unlikely.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2016, 12:19:07 PM »
1948 was diffrent: they pretty much stopped polling way ahead of the election day because "Dewey's landslide is inevitable".

Personally, I predict the thing will be closer than polls suggests, but given how narrow Trump's path to 270 is, it won't change the outcome.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2016, 12:20:32 PM »
No, the Shy Clinton effect will cancel out the Shy Trump effect.
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2016, 12:22:05 PM »
Yes, Trump will win and it won't even be that close. He will carry all the Romney states plus; FL, OH, NH, 2nd district of Maine, MI, PA & Nevada. He will end up with 300+ electoral votes.

We will all see tomorrow night.
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Penelope
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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2016, 12:23:50 PM »
Quote from: 2016election on November 07, 2016, 12:22:05 PM
Yes, Trump will win and it won't even be that close. He will carry all the Romney states plus; FL, OH, NH, 2nd district of Maine, MI, PA & Nevada. He will end up with 300+ electoral votes.

We will all see tomorrow night.

lol
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2016, 12:27:40 PM »
If early voting is any indicator, the "missing" Latino vote will be a much bigger factor than the "missing" WWC vote.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2016, 12:28:07 PM »
one of the forecasters said, 1948 wasn't big enough....one of the 30ies elections would be more correct.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2016, 12:34:08 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on November 07, 2016, 12:27:40 PM
If early voting is any indicator, the "missing" Latino vote will be a much bigger factor than the "missing" WWC vote.

Latinos screw Brexit Sad
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alomas
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2016, 12:38:35 PM »
I think Trump's best chance is the unpredictability of his character that will catch many pollster off-guard. Of course it can swing both ways but if someone is trailing in the poll (like Trump) then it is preferable to have bigger margin of uncertainty.

Not to say tomorrow will see a big error, we have to wait and see Smiley
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Redban
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2016, 12:38:40 PM »
Quote from: 2016election on November 07, 2016, 12:22:05 PM
Yes, Trump will win and it won't even be that close. He will carry all the Romney states plus; FL, OH, NH, 2nd district of Maine, MI, PA & Nevada. He will end up with 300+ electoral votes.

We will all see tomorrow night.

Dick Morris? That you?
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Mike88
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2016, 12:40:23 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2016, 12:42:16 PM by Mike88 »
From what i read, 1948 was not a complete fiasco. The last poll, i think from Gallup, gave Dewey just a 5 point lead in October. In August, Dewey lead Truman by 11 points. It was a suprise result because everybody stopped polling altogether. Perhaps if they continued polling, a Truman surge was probably going to be seen.
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alomas
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2016, 12:43:38 PM »
That's interesting. I remember exit polls and it showed Romney tied in VA (lost by 4), NH and CO also much more favourable to R than final results. I wasn't surprised that Obama won the election but I was surprised how easily he did that.
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Spark
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2016, 12:43:42 PM »
Absolutely.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2016, 01:01:41 PM »
Quote from: 2016election on November 07, 2016, 12:22:05 PM
Yes, Trump will win and it won't even be that close. He will carry all the Romney states plus; FL, OH, NH, 2nd district of Maine, MI, PA & Nevada. He will end up with 300+ electoral votes.

We will all see tomorrow night.

Untrue. You, like most Trump cultist posters, will probably not be here after your orange messiah loses YUGE.
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Person Man
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2016, 01:05:08 PM »
Quote from: Mike88 on November 07, 2016, 12:40:23 PM
From what i read, 1948 was not a complete fiasco. The last poll, i think from Gallup, gave Dewey just a 5 point lead in October. In August, Dewey lead Truman by 11 points. It was a suprise result because everybody stopped polling altogether. Perhaps if they continued polling, a Truman surge was probably going to be seen.
Trump's victory would be the biggest upset ever.
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alomas
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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2016, 01:07:25 PM »
By the way is he going to be on Fox again this year?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2016, 01:12:05 PM »

can't imagine since he became #nevertrump recently.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2016, 01:12:43 PM »
Hopefully not.
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King
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« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2016, 01:20:13 PM »
Yes, the massive landslide Clinton wins this by will shock all mainstream media horserrace onlookers.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2016, 01:22:01 PM »
Quote from: 2016election on November 07, 2016, 12:22:05 PM
Yes, Trump will win and it won't even be that close. He will carry all the Romney states plus; FL, OH, NH, 2nd district of Maine, MI, PA & Nevada. He will end up with 300+ electoral votes.

We will all see tomorrow night.

Obviously there's nothing to lose, because if you're right you can claim #accolades and if Clinton wins, you can delete your account.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2016, 03:54:44 AM »
looks like the polling error was bigger than 1948
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