Xingkerui's final prediction, hour by hour
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Author Topic: Xingkerui's final prediction, hour by hour  (Read 2596 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: November 07, 2016, 02:05:49 PM »
« edited: November 07, 2016, 02:23:45 PM by xīngkěruì »

Figured I'd do one of these, just for fun.

7:00 PM EST

Georgia - Too Early To Call
Indiana - Projected Winner: Trump
Kentucky - Projected Winner: Trump
South Carolina - Too Early To Call
Vermont - Projected Winner: Clinton
Virginia - Too Early To Call

In Virginia, Trump starts out ahead 55-42, though that's due to the Republican counting bias in the state. Certain networks claim that this early lead is actually relatively small, and good news for Clinton in the state.

Trump - 19
Clinton - 3

7:30 PM EST

North Carolina - Too Close To Call
Ohio - Too Close to Call
West Virginia - Projected Winner: Trump

The early vote starts to come in quickly from North Carolina, giving Clinton an early lead in the state. Analysts on news networks claim that Trump is expected to win the election day vote, but it is yet to be seen whether or not he can close the gap. Very early results out of Florida show a narrow lead for Clinton.



Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2016, 02:22:18 PM »

8:00 PM EST
Alabama - Projected Winner: Trump
Connecticut - Projected Winner: Clinton
Delaware - Projected Winner: Clinton
D.C. - Projected Winner: Clinton

Florida - Too Close To Call
Illinois - Projected Winner: Clinton
Maine (Statewide) - Projected Winner: Clinton
ME-01 - Projected Winner: Clinton

ME-02 - Too Early To Call
Maryland - Projected Winner: Clinton
Massachusetts - Projected Winner: Clinton

Mississippi - Projected Winner: Trump
Missouri - Too Early To Call
New Hampshire - Too Early To Call
New Jersey - Projected Winner: Clinton
Oklahoma - Projected Winner: Trump
Pennsylvania - Too Early To Call
Rhode Island - Projected Winner: Clinton
Tennessee - Projected Winner: Trump

8:15 PM EST
South Carolina - Projected Winner: Trump

8:30 PM EST
Arkansas - Projected Winner: Trump

During this time, Trump's advantage in Virginia quickly erodes while Clinton's lead in North Carolina narrows a bit. Clinton maintains about a 3% advantage in Florida, which analysts claim "should make the Trump campaign feel a bit uneasy."



Clinton - 78
Trump - 72
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2016, 02:51:48 PM »

9:00 PM EST
Arizona - Too Close To Call
Colorado - Too Early To Call
Kansas - Projected Winner: Trump
Louisiana - Projected Winner: Trump

Michigan - Too Early To Call
Minnesota - Projected Winner: Clinton
Nebraska (Statewide) - Projected Winner: Trump
NE-01 - Projected Winner: Trump

NE-02 - Too Early To Call
NE-03 - Projected Winner: Trump
New Mexico - Projected Winner: Clinton
New York - Projected Winner: Clinton

North Dakota - Projected Winner: Trump
South Dakota - Projected Winner: Trump

Texas - Too Early To Call
Wisconsin - Too Early To Call

Wyoming - Projected Winner: Trump

Reports of record-breaking Latino turnout in both Arizona and Texas prevents the networks from calling either states, and spells trouble for Trump in states like Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. While a winner can't be projected in Colorado or Wisconsin, early reports indicate that Clinton is leading in both.

9:30 PM EST
Missouri - Projected Winner: Trump
Virginia - Projected Winner: Clinton

The first good sign for Clinton comes when the state of Virginia can be called for her. While Trump still holds a two-point lead at this point in the night, the vast majority of the outstanding vote is from Northern Virginia, where Clinton is winning decisively. The networks feel comfortable making the call for her. Trump takes Missouri at about this point as well.

9:45 PM EST
New Hampshire - Projected Winner: Clinton
Pennsylvania - Projected Winner: Clinton


These two calls make it even more clear that Clinton is having a good night, as Trump's loss in Pennsylvania compromises his path to 270, and puts the pressure on him in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where early returns do not look especially good for him.



Clinton - 159
Trump - 109

Outstanding states:

Arizona: Too Close To Call, a narrow lead for Clinton out of the votes counted thus far, though that is likely due to a Democratic counting bias.

Colorado: Too Early To Call, Clinton leads (not much of the vote has been counted)

Florida: Too Close To Call, Clinton hangs on to about a 2.5% lead.

Georgia: Too Early To Call, votes are slow to report, though Trump has a large advantage thus far (due to a Republican counting bias)

ME-02: Now Too Close To Call, Clinton leads by about 3.5%.

Michigan: Too Early To Call, 4% lead for Clinton with a small percentage of the vote in.

NE-02: Now Too Close To Call, Trump leads by about 2% with a very small percentage of the vote in.

North Carolina: Too Close To Call, Clinton's lead down to about 1.5%.

Ohio: Too Close To Call, Clinton holds about a 5% lead, but a lot of the votes counted are from urban counties.

Texas: Too Early To Call, Trump leads by about 5%.

Wisconsin: Too Early To Call, Clinton leads by about 2%, but not much of the vote from Dane or Milwaukee has been reported.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2016, 03:40:57 PM »

10:00 PM EST
Iowa - Too Early To Call
Montana - Projected Winner: Trump
Nevada - Too Early To Call
Utah - Too Early To Call


Early reports out of Nevada suggest that Clinton is favored, even though the networks cannot project a winner. As Trump trails Clinton in several key states, Republican strategists begin to fear that he will not only lose the election, but possibly hand Democrats control of the Senate.

10:15 PM EST
Texas - Projected Winner: Trump
Wisconsin - Projected Winner: Clinton

While Trump puts away Texas, holding on to a 6% lead, Clinton puts away Wisconsin, as her lead expands to 5%, cutting off another potential path to 270 for Trump.

10:30 PM EST
Georgia - Projected Winner: Trump
ME-02 - Projected Winner: Clinton
Michigan - Projected Winner: Clinton

Two more state calls make matters worse for Trump. While the Georgia call makes the prospect of a Clinton landslide increasingly dim, the Michigan call again cuts off another path to victory for him. He now has no room for error, and must win all of the remaining states, assuming he doesn't somehow win a state on the West Coast. However, the votes from Colorado and Nevada are slow to come in, which forces the networks to be very cautious about calling them. They are also reluctant to call Florida, despite a persistant lead for Clinton.



Clinton - 186
Trump - 166

Outstanding states:

Arizona: Too Close To Call, Trump has taken the lead, but only narrowly, by about 1.5%.

Colorado: Too Early To Call, about a 4% lead for Clinton, but with a lot of the vote yet to be counted.

Florida: Too Close To Call, Clinton remains in the lead by about 2.5%.

Iowa: Too Early To Call, Clinton leads by about 7%, but most of the areas reporting are more Democratic friendly.

NE-02: Too Close To Call, Trump's lead just under 1% with slightly more than half of the vote in.

Nevada: Too Early To Call, virtually nothing reporting thus far, though ground reports suggest Clinton is favored.

North Carolina: Too Close To Call, Clinton up by about 1%, with most of the vote in, but a mix of rural and urban areas yet to report.

Ohio: Too Close To Call, Trump takes a lead of less than 1%, but with a large amount of the vote from Cuyahoga left out.

Utah: Too Early To Call, Trump starts out with a small lead, Clinton barely ahead of McMullin.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2016, 03:58:36 PM »

I thought this meant you'd be updating your prediction map every hour Tongue
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2016, 04:52:46 PM »

^Haha, nope, I'm pretty set on nearly every state, so there wouldn't be much point to that. Tongue Anyway...

11:00 PM EST
California - Projected Winner: Clinton
Hawaii - Projected Winner: Clinton

Idaho - Projected Winner: Trump
Oregon - Projected Winner: Clinton
Washington - Projected Winner: Clinton


This puts Clinton at 264 EV, meaning that if she wins any remaining state (other than Alaska), she wins the election. Analysts look at the numbers and claim that it would take nothing short of a miracle for Trump to win. They believe that Clinton is favored in Nevada, Colorado, and Florida, she's a modest favorite in North Carolina, Ohio could still go either way, and while Trump might be favored in the other states, he can't count on winning them. Then...

11:10 PM EST
"We have another projection to make..." (excitement builds) "We can project that Donald Trump will win the state of Utah." (Excitement dies down)

Utah - Projected Winner: Trump

Then...

11:15 PM EST
"We have a major projection to make at this moment. Hillary Clinton is the projected winner in the battleground state of Florida. This projection puts her over the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, thus we can project that Hillary Clinton has been elected the 45th President of the United States. History has been made, as the United States has elected its first female President in its 240 year history."

Florida - Projected Winner: Clinton



Clinton - 293
Trump - 176

Over the next 45 minutes, three more calls are made:
Colorado - Projected Winner: Clinton
Iowa - Projected Winner: Trump
Nevada - Projected Winner: Clinton



Clinton - 308
Trump - 182

Outstanding States by midnight:

Arizona: Trump leads by just over 1%, with about 70% of the vote in.

NE-02: Trump leads by about 200 votes, with 75% of the vote in.

North Carolina: Clinton leads by 1.4%, with nearly 90% of the vote in.

Ohio: Trump leads by 0.6%, with about 80% of the vote in.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2016, 06:10:12 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2016, 09:20:46 PM by xīngkěruì »

And now I'll just list the rest of the calls.

November 9th, 12:15 AM EST
North Carolina - Projected Winner: Clinton

1:00 AM EST
Alaska - Too Early To Call

2:30 AM EST
Arizona - Projected Winner: Trump

3:00 AM EST
Alaska - Projected Winner: Trump

November 10th, 11:00 AM EST
Ohio - Projected Winner: Clinton

November 12th, 1:00 PM EST
NE-02 - Projected Winner: Clinton



Clinton - 342
Trump - 196
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Metallifreak10
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« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2016, 06:24:39 PM »

I guess we were all wrong.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2016, 08:32:03 PM »

Yeah, the polling industry has an existential crisis on their hands. If we don't trust polls at all, we'll have to go about predictions in a completely different way.
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Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2017, 10:15:52 PM »

Yeah, the polling industry has an existential crisis on their hands. If we don't trust polls at all, we'll have to go about predictions in a completely different way.

Polling wasn't wrong(it was more off in 2012) it's that the data was interpreted wrong, especially by pundits and the media, because they couldn't fathom a Trump win. State poll did mess up a bit though.
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wxtransit
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2017, 05:15:28 PM »

Yeah, the polling industry has an existential crisis on their hands. If we don't trust polls at all, we'll have to go about predictions in a completely different way.

Polling wasn't wrong(it was more off in 2012) it's that the data was interpreted wrong, especially by pundits and the media, because they couldn't fathom a Trump win. State poll did mess up a bit though.

From what I could tell, national polling was pretty on par (Clinton +2 or so), but individual state polls were wrong, which led to the wrong predicted EV map, such as: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. As you can see, polling in Florida (Clinton +1), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), and more states Trump won were off. And FiveThirtyEight was one of the more favorable aggregators toward Trump.
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2017, 09:08:22 PM »

Yeah, the polling industry has an existential crisis on their hands. If we don't trust polls at all, we'll have to go about predictions in a completely different way.

Polling wasn't wrong(it was more off in 2012) it's that the data was interpreted wrong, especially by pundits and the media, because they couldn't fathom a Trump win. State poll did mess up a bit though.

From what I could tell, national polling was pretty on par (Clinton +2 or so), but individual state polls were wrong, which led to the wrong predicted EV map, such as: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. As you can see, polling in Florida (Clinton +1), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), and more states Trump won were off. And FiveThirtyEight was one of the more favorable aggregators toward Trump.

Indeed. Clinton in fact overperformed her polls in 11 states, including Colorado, New Mexico and California. That meant the polling error cancelled itself out at the popular vote, likely because her support with Hispanics was in fact underestimated but she did badly with the WWC so that cost her the Electoral College.
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wxtransit
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2017, 10:55:31 PM »

Yeah, the polling industry has an existential crisis on their hands. If we don't trust polls at all, we'll have to go about predictions in a completely different way.

Polling wasn't wrong(it was more off in 2012) it's that the data was interpreted wrong, especially by pundits and the media, because they couldn't fathom a Trump win. State poll did mess up a bit though.

From what I could tell, national polling was pretty on par (Clinton +2 or so), but individual state polls were wrong, which led to the wrong predicted EV map, such as: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. As you can see, polling in Florida (Clinton +1), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), and more states Trump won were off. And FiveThirtyEight was one of the more favorable aggregators toward Trump.

Indeed. Clinton in fact overperformed her polls in 11 states, including Colorado, New Mexico and California. That meant the polling error cancelled itself out at the popular vote, likely because her support with Hispanics was in fact underestimated but she did badly with the WWC so that cost her the Electoral College.

Bingo.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2017, 02:04:37 PM »

I'm curious as to what the margins were in the "close" states.
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