Xingkerui's final prediction, hour by hour

[Pericles]

Yeah, the polling industry has an existential crisis on their hands. If we don't trust polls at all, we'll have to go about predictions in a completely different way.

Polling wasn't wrong(it was more off in 2012) it's that the data was interpreted wrong, especially by pundits and the media, because they couldn't fathom a Trump win. State poll did mess up a bit though.

[Pericles]

Yeah, the polling industry has an existential crisis on their hands. If we don't trust polls at all, we'll have to go about predictions in a completely different way.

Polling wasn't wrong(it was more off in 2012) it's that the data was interpreted wrong, especially by pundits and the media, because they couldn't fathom a Trump win. State poll did mess up a bit though.

From what I could tell, national polling was pretty on par (Clinton +2 or so), but individual state polls were wrong, which led to the wrong predicted EV map, such as: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. As you can see, polling in Florida (Clinton +1), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), and more states Trump won were off. And FiveThirtyEight was one of the more favorable aggregators toward Trump.

Indeed. Clinton in fact overperformed her polls in 11 states, including Colorado, New Mexico and California. That meant the polling error cancelled itself out at the popular vote, likely because her support with Hispanics was in fact underestimated but she did badly with the WWC so that cost her the Electoral College.