Midnight towns (NH) **results thread**

[Mr. Morden]

Can somebody make a precinct map of each town, with each house colored red/blue/whatever?

#atlasforum

I'll ask Google to crunch the numbers for us.  Who's got eighty dollars to blow?

Too bad these towns didn't conduct an exit poll in which one of the questions was "What is your address?"

[DavidB.]

Wow, Falling Maggie!

[Middle-aged Europe]

German morning news only reported about Hillary's win in Dixville Notch, while omitting the other two towns.  #RIGGED

They also located a distant cousin of Donald Trump who still lives in the old Drumpf stomping grounds in Rhineland-Palatinate and did an interview with him.

[JerryArkansas]

I love how actual votes have been counted and the usual suspects are already trying to spin these small towns as somehow being mystical places unlike the dozens and dozens of other small towns just like them in the state that don't vote at midnight.

This is a pretty nice preview of New Hampshire. It doesn't officially mean anything, but the attitude towards NH ought to be one of more caution from what these numbers show.

You really think pinning your hope on this makes you look good.  Losing two out of three towns, with a republican one saving you face.  Alright.

[jaichind]

Looking at demographic data of Hart's Location

http://www.city-data.com/city/Hart-s-Location-New-Hampshire.html

where Trump got a positive swing from 2012

2012
Obama 23
Romney 9
Johnson 1

2016
Hillary 17
Trump 14
Johnson 3
Sanders 2
Kasich 1

We do have males 23 female 18 so the gender gap is in play for this Trump swing.    Average household income is $51K although it does not report medium income.  Trump seems to be doing well relative to 2012 for high income voters then.  50% of the town has college degrees of above. So so far the view that college educated whites will swing against Trump relative to 2012 does not seem to be true.  Trump seems to be gaining in college educated whites.  70% of the town is married.  We know the Trump might do relatively better for married voters and this does seem to bear out so far.

[JerryArkansas]

Looking at demographic data of Hart's Location

http://www.city-data.com/city/Hart-s-Location-New-Hampshire.html

where Trump got a positive swing from 2012

2012
Obama 23
Romney 9
Johnson 1

2016
Hillary 17
Trump 14
Johnson 3
Sanders 2
Kasich 1

We do have males 23 female 18 so the gender gap is in play for this Trump swing.    Average household income is $51K although it does not report medium income.  Trump seems to be doing well relative to 2012 for high income voters then.  50% of the town has college degrees of above. So so far the view that college educated whites will swing against Trump relative to 2012 does not seem to be true.  Trump seems to be gaining in college educated whites.  70% of the town is married.  We know the Trump might do relatively better for married voters and this does seem to bear out so far.

Why are you making assumptions based on 70 or so votes?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I love how actual votes have been counted and the usual suspects are already trying to spin these small towns as somehow being mystical places unlike the dozens and dozens of other small towns just like them in the state that don't vote at midnight.

This is a pretty nice preview of New Hampshire. It doesn't officially mean anything, but the attitude towards NH ought to be one of more caution from what these numbers show.

You really think pinning your hope on this makes you look good.  Losing two out of three towns, with a republican one saving you face.  Alright.

Fun facts:

In 1996, Bob Dole won both Dixville Notch and Hart's Location. In 1992, Bill Clinton came in fourth in Dixville Notch behind Bush, Perot and Libertarian nominee Andre Marrou. Both times, Clinton won the state though.

Barry Goldwater defeated Lyndon Johnson in Dixville Notch in a 8-1 landslide. Johnson won the state with 64% of the vote.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looking at demographic data of Hart's Location

http://www.city-data.com/city/Hart-s-Location-New-Hampshire.html

where Trump got a positive swing from 2012

2012
Obama 23
Romney 9
Johnson 1

2016
Hillary 17
Trump 14
Johnson 3
Sanders 2
Kasich 1

We do have males 23 female 18 so the gender gap is in play for this Trump swing.    Average household income is $51K although it does not report medium income.  Trump seems to be doing well relative to 2012 for high income voters then.  50% of the town has college degrees of above. So so far the view that college educated whites will swing against Trump relative to 2012 does not seem to be true.  Trump seems to be gaining in college educated whites.  70% of the town is married.  We know the Trump might do relatively better for married voters and this does seem to bear out so far.

Bored?

[IceSpear]

Looking at demographic data of Hart's Location

http://www.city-data.com/city/Hart-s-Location-New-Hampshire.html

where Trump got a positive swing from 2012

2012
Obama 23
Romney 9
Johnson 1

2016
Hillary 17
Trump 14
Johnson 3
Sanders 2
Kasich 1

We do have males 23 female 18 so the gender gap is in play for this Trump swing.    Average household income is $51K although it does not report medium income.  Trump seems to be doing well relative to 2012 for high income voters then.  50% of the town has college degrees of above. So so far the view that college educated whites will swing against Trump relative to 2012 does not seem to be true.  Trump seems to be gaining in college educated whites.  70% of the town is married.  We know the Trump might do relatively better for married voters and this does seem to bear out so far.

Bored?

Doubtful. Probably just...

[MT Treasurer]

Current totals for NH are

Trump 32 (48.5%)
Clinton 25 (37.9%)
Write-ins 5 (7.58%)
Johnson 4 (6.06%)

Enjoy it while it lasts.

[jaichind]

Another way to look at Hart’s Location

2016 Primary

GOP  (13 votes)
Kasich 5
Trump 4
Christie 2
Bush 1
Carson 1
Rubio 1

Dem (21 votes)
Sanders 12
Clinton 7
Greenstein 2

Total: 34

2016
Hillary 17
Trump 14
Johnson 3
Sanders 2
Kasich 1

Total: 37

Assuming the 2 Sanders general election voters also voted in the Dem Primary, out of the 21 Dem primary voters 2 defected to either Johnson Kasich or least likely Trump.   Out of the 13 GOP voters it seems Trump won all of them.  In theory the 1 Kasich general election vote could have come from the 13 GOP primary voters but that same person it appears did not vote for Kasich in the GOP primary so we can rule this out as unlikely.  Out of the 3 voters that did not vote in the GOP primary nor Dem primary it seems they went to Trump Johnson or Kasich.

In all of NH in the 2016 GOP and Dem primaries, the GOP primary had 284K voters and the Dem primary 251K voters.  So far the trend is Trump is keeping the GOP primary vote, Clinton keeping most of but not all of the Dem primary vote and Trump/Johnson capturing votes that were not cast in the 2016 primaries. 

We obviously cannot extrapolate this to other parts of NH but so far the Trump camp must be liking these numbers.

[ursulahx]

Funniest thread on the whole forum.

[LLR]

Classic Atlas...

[Shadows]

So...um...are people seriously going to pretend that any of these races is even remotely competitive? Clinton, Climbing Maggie, Shea-Porter, Kuster and that random male (Van Ostern was his name, right) will win BIGLY, guys!

You are trying to jinx it. Climbing maggie will loose to beautiful ayotte!

[Alaska2392]

Can somebody make a precinct map of each town, with each house colored red/blue/whatever?

#atlasforum

Literally LOLed at this.  Well done.

As expected some people freaking out because a village with 2 registered Democrats included this year.