Presidential Ratings and Predictions - RESULTS

[ElectionsGuy]

Links to all the threads here

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01 ME-02 Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska NE-01 NE-02 NE-03 Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming One Week Notice

Ratings

Safe Clinton: 198
Likely Clinton: 65
Lean Clinton: 16 <-- Overall
Toss-Up: 86
Lean Trump: 26
Likely Trump: 65
Safe Trump: 82


Clinton: 279✔
Trump: 173
Toss-Up: 86

Predictions

Clinton: 330✔
Trump: 208

Bellwether Predictions State: New Hampshire
Bellwether Ratings State: Colorado

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Raw Numbers



Final Percentages



I suggest opening image in a new tab.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ratings Organized each from most picked to least picked by state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Predictions Organized from most Clinton and most Trump.

[ElectionsGuy]

States within competitive range (Lean D, Toss-Up, and Lean R)

North Carolina: 96.5%
NE-02: 91.9%
Florida: 91.4%
Ohio: 90.2%
Arizona: 88.2%
Iowa: 86.3%
Utah: 80.1%
Nevada: 73.9%
Georgia: 73.7%
ME-02: 68.6%
Missouri: 66.1%
Colorado: 48.7%
Texas: 44.2%
New Hampshire: 41.1%
Pennsylvania: 39.8%
Alaska: 32.1%
Indiana: 25.6%
South Carolina: 16.8%
Wisconsin: 16.0%
Michigan: 15.8%
Maine: 13.6%
New Mexico: 12.5%
New Jersey: 10.8%
Montana: 10.5%
Virginia: 7.8%
Minnesota: 7.2%
NE-01: 7.2%
Rhode Island: 5.8%
Vermont: 5.0%
Wyoming: 4.8%
Mississippi: 4.5%
South Dakota: 4.5%
Oregon: 4.4%
Louisiana: 4.1%
North Dakota: 4.0%
Illinois: 3.9%
Washington: 3.6%
NE-03: 3.3%
Kansas: 3.2%
Arkansas: 2.8%
ME-01: 2.7%
Nebraska: 2.4%
Connecticut: 2.3%
Delaware: 1.6%
West Virginia: 1.0%
Massachusetts: 0.9%
New York: 0.9%
District of Columbia: 0.8%
Hawaii: 0.8%
Idaho: 0.8%
Alabama: 0.0%
California: 0.0%
Kentucky: 0.0%
Maryland: 0.0%
Oklahoma: 0.0%
Tennessee: 0.0%

[Thomas D]

Thanks for all the work you put into this.

[ProudModerate2]

Wow, that's alot of data.
Thanks.

[OneJ]

Awesome job!

[tinman64]

Thank you for all this great work!

[Incipimus iterum]

Excellent work!!!!

[Crumpets]

Interesting that we picked IA to go D before Ohio.

[bagelman]

Here are the competitive states, 119 EV are at least 60% competitive while another 85 are 20-50% competitive.

I think that NE-2 is unlikely to vote Clinton though. I haven't seen any good polls for her there.

[King of Kensington]

I'm going to say HRC takes 333 electoral votes and takes Florida, North Carolina and pulls an upset in Arizona.  Trump wins Ohio, Iowa and Maine-2.

[Sir Mohamed]

Thanks, Elections Guy, for making this up. Fine work.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, pretty cool. Though I suspect Iowa was forgotten in terms of people updating their votes or something.

Surely, OH seems more likely to break Clinton than IA?

[The Free North]

Putting Atlas's collective knowledge to the test. Surely we will do well tonight?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Putting Atlas's collective knowledge to the test. Surely we will do well tonight?

[jaichind]

I am certain if everyone that picked an winner in Iowa bothered to review their pick the night before the election, a majority would have picked for Trump to win.  So the map posted is not as bad as it seems.

[bagelman]

Here are the competitive states, 119 EV are at least 60% competitive while another 85 are 20-50% competitive.

I think that NE-2 is unlikely to vote Clinton though. I haven't seen any good polls for her there.

Only 3 victories for Clinton in the above map, and all by pathetic pluralities - especially in NH.