Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Wiz in Wis]

It appears the Slate site updated FL total votes now... with Clinton just under 90k votes away from Obama's total in 2012. Trump still 270k away from Romney total.

If this model is correct, the polls were very wrong in FL.

[bilaps]

Clinton now up almost 300k in Florida. I am starting to doubt this one.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Clinton now up almost 300k in Florida. I am starting to doubt this one.

FL is shot. It's over if they are right.

[bilaps]

It appears the Slate site updated FL total votes now... with Clinton just under 90k votes away from Obama's total in 2012. Trump still 270k away from Romney total.

If this model is correct, the polls were very wrong in FL.

If it's correct looks like polls underestimated Clinton everywhere or overestimated Trump everywhere. Based on this model, Clinton will win FL by at least 3 or 4 and she could win both OH and IA in a very very close race.

[The Other Castro]

It appears the Slate site updated FL total votes now... with Clinton just under 90k votes away from Obama's total in 2012. Trump still 270k away from Romney total.

If this model is correct, the polls were very wrong in FL.

Well, some of the polls.

[MasterJedi]

It appears the Slate site updated FL total votes now... with Clinton just under 90k votes away from Obama's total in 2012. Trump still 270k away from Romney total.

If this model is correct, the polls were very wrong in FL.

If it's correct looks like polls underestimated Clinton everywhere or overestimated Trump everywhere. Based on this model, Clinton will win FL by at least 3 or 4 and she could win both OH and IA in a very very close race.

If it's true (I think it is), all the polls will have pretty much vastly underestimated Clinton's Hispanic support.

[heatcharger]

Wow RIP any future Republican's chances at the White House if Duval County turns blue. I just don't see the path to victory for them in the state without the large basket of votes in Jacksonville.

[win win]

Despite all this slate  stuff, the odds are unchanged with Donald at 18% in real money markets.

[Angrie]

FL is shot. It's over if they are right.

Los Hispanos estan Votando, y no estan Votando por el pequeno Donald...

[muon2]

I'm off now for a while. I have to go collect some midday turnout counts to send in to party HQ to feed into our models. Just like votecastr is doing.

I'm back. My polling place had about 25% vote early and 30% at the door by 1:00. That seems like a fairly normal turnout.

[Mallow]

It appears the Slate site updated FL total votes now... with Clinton just under 90k votes away from Obama's total in 2012. Trump still 270k away from Romney total.

If this model is correct, the polls were very wrong in FL.

For what it's worth, I've been tracking Hillsborough County's votes by registration all day. Early on, today's votes were 34.2% Democrats, 39.4% Republicans. Currently they're 34.7% Democrats, 37.9% Republicans. Basically, the Republicans have led by about 3,500 votes all day. Add today's votes on top of the early votes and Democrats currently still have a greater than 25,000 vote advantage in Hillsborough County.

[muon2]

Clinton now up almost 300k in Florida. I am starting to doubt this one.

FL is shot. It's over if they are right.

The key disclaimer was the comment on the livestream that Cuban vote is driving that. If their estimate of second generation Cubans isn't as Dem as they think it is, then the model will shift the prediction a bit.

[mark_twain]

Great results from this new, innovative election reporting tool!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Great results from this new, innovative election reporting tool!

[King]

The thing to remember here is that these are supposed to act as a baseline that has to be confirmed by results.

The networks create projections for precincts and then when the early precinct results come in, if they match the projections, the state is called.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

According to the polls Trump should be doing much stronger on ED.

Right now according to the model: EV ~= ED


So either polls are wrong, current turnout is D-friendly so far or the model is wrong

[Person Man]

According to the polls Trump should be doing much stronger on ED.

Right now according to the model: EV ~= ED


So either polls are wrong, current turnout is D-friendly so far or the model is wrong

OR polled voter's tongue will turn black and their penises will fall off because they are LIARS.

[Devout Centrist]

As good a sign as this is, remember the 2004 exit polls.

[HillOfANight]

Florida is a done deal at this point. Trump should win IA, though.

How do we know? Are the GOP counties reporting in real time? Are the current numbers skewed by Democrats reporting fast?

[Lief 🗽]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

[Wiz in Wis]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

[Crumpets]

One ever-so-slight piece of maybe good news for Trump I just noticed is that he's already beat Romney's total numbers for middle-class areas in Florida. Of course, that doesn't seem to be nearly enough for him to carry the state, but maybe somewhere else that might make the difference.

[JerryArkansas]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

You freaking mean they just allotted the damn early vote based on today's vote.  God damn they are amateur hour.

[amdcpus]

Where the heck are you guys seeing the third party numbers?

[cowboys5xsbs]

I can't take these guys seriously anymore there numbers look ok but they make way too many errors .