Slate/Votecastr real time election projections
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Author Topic: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections  (Read 23041 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #250 on: November 08, 2016, 01:50:45 PM »

Updated data. Looks great for Clinton. Lead everywhere.
Especially Florida, where her lead has increased to over 200k votes.
Why is it good? It is EV data.

According to polls
a) Clinton has about 6-10% lead. According to this just 3%
b) Trump will be doing much better.

It this model is right, than polls overestimated Trump heavily...
Both in FL and NV and WI

But I doubt.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/795455957765681152
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794571735760797697
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There was a new data dump, vote totals in Florida are now about 7.3 million. A lot of that is early vote, but the morning wave was dumped in as well... so the EV margin is holding.

Put it another way, if Clinton adds another 400k votes, and Trump adds another 500k votes, they hit the Obama/Romney margin. They are very close to 2012 totals already.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #251 on: November 08, 2016, 01:53:11 PM »

The million dollar question is whether or not they are right in modeling how people are likely to vote.  This is basically telling us how turnout is with different groups, but it's tough to know if it is right on how Republican or Democrat they all will be.
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Angrie
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« Reply #252 on: November 08, 2016, 01:53:46 PM »

Uh-oh, they have Trump ahead 46-45 in Iowa now that some of the election day vote has started...

OH has also narrowed to just 46-45 Hillary with some election day vote now feeding into their model. I wonder if it will flip when they get more vote in...

But CO has expanded to 47-42 Hillary, and PA looks fine (48-44 Hillary) now that they have some election day vote.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #253 on: November 08, 2016, 01:54:01 PM »

Here's a roundup of their current numbers:

Colorado: C+5
Florida: C+4
Iowa: T+1
Ohio: C+1
Wisconsin: C+6
Nevada: C+3
Pennsylvania: C+4
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Mallow
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« Reply #254 on: November 08, 2016, 01:55:29 PM »

There was a new data dump, vote totals in Florida are now about 7.3 million. A lot of that is early vote, but the morning wave was dumped in as well... so the EV margin is holding.

Put it another way, if Clinton adds another 400k votes, and Trump adds another 500k votes, they hit the Obama/Romney margin. They are very close to 2012 totals already.

Exactly. The fact that a lot of today's votes are now in the model and she still is significantly closer to Obama's total than Trump is to Romney's total (she's 377k away, he's 537k away), has got to be a good sign.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #255 on: November 08, 2016, 01:55:51 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2016, 02:00:06 PM by Erich Maria Remarque »


There was a new data dump, vote totals in Florida are now about 7.3 million. A lot of that is early vote, but the morning wave was dumped in as well... so the EV margin is holding.

Put it another way, if Clinton adds another 400k votes, and Trump adds another 500k votes, they hit the Obama/Romney margin. They are very close to 2012 totals already.

I am talking about this vs polls. Purely.
But you're right. They now have 1mln ED voters for Florida and 0.7mln for Wisconsin. But NV and NH seems to look pretty good for Trump so far.
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King
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« Reply #256 on: November 08, 2016, 01:57:14 PM »

The third party support seems overinflated. Who the  votes early for a protest vote?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #257 on: November 08, 2016, 02:02:56 PM »

The third party support seems overinflated. Who the  votes early for a protest vote?

Actually, Johson is pretty much as 538, maybe overperforming by 1% point.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #258 on: November 08, 2016, 02:03:04 PM »

I am pretty sure that OH map would point to a Trump win.
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win win
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« Reply #259 on: November 08, 2016, 02:05:03 PM »

votecaster summary:

WI: C+6
CO: C+5
PA : C+4
FL : C+4
NH: C+4
NV: C+3
IA: T+1
OH: C+1

unskew these for D bias
so PA and FL and NH are all C+4, what's this suppose to mean exactly?
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #260 on: November 08, 2016, 02:05:45 PM »

I am pretty sure that OH map would point to a Trump win.

Almost certainly.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #261 on: November 08, 2016, 02:06:31 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
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bilaps
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« Reply #262 on: November 08, 2016, 02:08:06 PM »

If there weren't for Florida numbers, I could think this should be nice for Trump with NV,OH and IA numbers. But, with FL it's a ball game.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #263 on: November 08, 2016, 02:08:14 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
IDK, pretty good for Hillary.

But do we know that Trump's supporters vote late?

If there weren't for Florida numbers, I could think this should be nice for Trump with NV,OH and IA numbers. But, with FL it's a ball game.
Yep. Exactly my thoughts. Hispanics will win Florida for Hillary Sad
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #264 on: November 08, 2016, 02:08:24 PM »

This thread is going as expected, I see. Tongue
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #265 on: November 08, 2016, 02:08:30 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #266 on: November 08, 2016, 02:09:03 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.
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Mallow
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« Reply #267 on: November 08, 2016, 02:09:20 PM »


Then why would their model have Clinton ahead? That doesn't make sense--their numbers are based on that map. Just because a map that looks like that might have historically been a R win doesn't mean it would in this election. It's completely reasonable (in fact, exactly as expected) to assume that rural/suburban counties would shift towards Trump while urban counties would shift towards Clinton, meaning fewer "blue" counties but a similar overall margin.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #268 on: November 08, 2016, 02:09:49 PM »

We are all aware that these are just made up numbers right?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #269 on: November 08, 2016, 02:10:36 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.
Calm down, these are estimates and not just based on EV.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #270 on: November 08, 2016, 02:10:48 PM »


Then why would their model have Clinton ahead? That doesn't make sense--their numbers are based on that map. Just because a map that looks like that might have historically been a R win doesn't mean it would in this election. It's completely reasonable (in fact, exactly as expected) to assume that rural/suburban counties would shift towards Trump while urban counties would shift towards Clinton, meaning fewer "blue" counties but a similar overall margin.
This isn't an estimate of the final vote, it's an estimate of the current vote
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #271 on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:00 PM »

We are all aware that these are just made up numbers right?

Considering Jill Stein still has 1% in Nevada...
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #272 on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:03 PM »


I cannot see the margin in Hamilton because it is below the line of the graphic and zooming on Chrome doesn't alter the boundary. From what I can see, the margins in the other marginals, Lake, Ottawa, Wood, the low Dem margins in Lucas and Trumball/Mahoning and Trump ahead in Ashtabula, something I mentioned as a possibly a few months ago are certainly very good for any Republican. Even the margins in Colombus metro aren't too bad, though those collar counties could be higher especially if Franklin gets up into the 60's for Clinton in the end.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #273 on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:06 PM »

We are all aware that these are just made up numbers right?

As Dems in "early voting thread" Wink
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Mallow
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« Reply #274 on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:08 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.

This makes zero sense. Please stop posting/concern trolling.
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