Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Devout Centrist]

Trump's leading in EV in Nevada?

Weird sh** going on.

But no he doesn't, they just have him overperforming Mittens.

[Devout Centrist]

If I'm reading those early voting projections correctly...oh dear god.

Why?

[Devout Centrist]

Florida, Clinton + 102k
2016 Early Vote: 3,685,667 early votes, 41.8 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 1,780,573 early votes, 42.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 1,678,848 early votes, 40.3 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Results: Obama won, 50.0 percent to 49.1 percent


Iowa, Clinton +29k
2016 Early Vote: 563,444 early votes, 35.6 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 273,188 early votes, 33.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 244,739 early votes, 33.5 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.1 percent to 46.5 percent


Nevada, Clinton +7k
2016 Early Vote: 593,964 early votes, 58.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 276,461 early votes, 52.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 269,255 early votes, 58.1 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent


Ohio Clinton+53K
2016 Early Vote: 1,320,559 early votes, 23.7 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 632,433 early votes, 22.4 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 579,916 early votes, 21.8 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent


Pennsylvania, Trump + 14k
2016 Early Vote: 199,167 early votes, 3.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 85,367 early votes, 2.8 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 99,286 early votes, 3.7 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.0 percent to 46.8 percent


Wisconsin, Clinton +70k
2016 Early Vote: 560,455 early votes, 18.3 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 295,302 early votes, 18.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 225,281 early votes, 16.0 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Obama won, 52.8 percent to 46.1 percent

So Trump is leading PA?

Mind you PA is strict about having an excuse to vote early.

[Devout Centrist]

Guys calm the f**k down, you're extrapolating from small estimates and with Pennsylvania, the early vote is very strict. Stop panicking.

[Devout Centrist]

I am not going to trust this, Stein isnt on the ballot in Nevada

Are you sh**tting me? They included Stein in Nevada?!

[Devout Centrist]

Duval now lean D.

[Devout Centrist]

does anyone know the breakdown for FL in 2012 at this point?

I don't think it was lean D at this point. Duval is no longer a tossup too.

[Devout Centrist]

If the Duval numbers hold up, Trump doesn't win the state. Duval going D would mean good things for black turnout and bad things for Trump's ability to get suburban whites to the polls for him. It should be an area where he'd gain on Romney if he was going to win the state.

If Duval is even remotely close to lean D, Florida is gone completely for Trump.

[Devout Centrist]

Just read their "How It Works" article again.

Only now do I see that this has ZERO exit poll component. This is just yet another pre-election day poll masquerading as actual voting data.

So much for all their hype about breaking the exit poll embargo.

You didn't already realize that? Only Edison Research conducts those.

[Devout Centrist]

You didn't already realize that? Only Edison Research conducts those.

Yeah, not until now. I was deceived by their "this is controversial" and their "big networks hold this back" hype.

You should always start by reading the f**king instruction . Americans

F**k Ikea

[Devout Centrist]

Before people take Slate seriously, remember they have 58 staffers who vote Clinton and none for Trump.

Slate isn't behind this model

[Devout Centrist]

Updated data. Looks great for Clinton. Lead everywhere.

Especially Florida, where her lead has increased to over 200k votes.

[Devout Centrist]

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.

in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.

Calm down, these are estimates and not just based on EV.

[Devout Centrist]

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.

in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.

Shes up  by a few points in every state according to this model with 60-75% of the vote in each state.

You dont make up those kinds of numbers very often with that much of the vote in.

Again though, this model is estimating here. Still , I take these numbers as solid for Clinton, disappointing a bit in Ohio though.

Didn't this happen in 2012 with Ohio? I thought it got very close once 60% of the vote was in.

[Devout Centrist]

As good a sign as this is, remember the 2004 exit polls.

[Devout Centrist]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

It is pretty strange. I though that NV Hispanics would be underestimated much more than in FL. But so far it is other way around...

Remember, the model takes polls into account with their estimates.

[Devout Centrist]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

It is pretty strange. I though that NV Hispanics would be underestimated much more than in FL. But so far it is other way around...

Remember, the model takes polls into account with their estimates.

I know, but I assumed that since they used voter file, they'd get much better result in reaching all groups. If they are really from Obama team.

Wait, I thought they said it was similar to Obama's data operation, not his actual model.