Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Worth to remind about an interesting article that describes some not so obvious caveats.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/you-may-need-a-strong-stomach-for-the-pitfalls-of-real-time-election-projections.html

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

I really really hate this project. And yes, I will be following it closely like everyone else.

Why?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You can sign up to have projections emailed to you throughout the day.  Beats refreshing.

They should've instead published an app for Android/iOs. It's 2016, folks...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Will they also publish estimate of early vote?

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/follow_slate_and_votecastr_for_real_time_election_day_turnout_tracking.html

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So they will publish EV estimates when they will have got the EV data (at 8.a.m.?) ??

[Erich Maria Remarque]

you might have to use a VPN if you're outside the USA. I am currently and I couldn't access it without one.

So you see real-time stats now? I just have an clickable "SLATE" button (and unclickable "VICE"). But nothing happens...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

trevor cornwell ‏@trevorcornwell  8m8 minutes ago
@cheyenneehrlich @votecastr 8 am ET, Votecastr will be providing its real time data to Slate-go to http://Vicenews.com  for the War Room

 Louis ‏@lluiv  4m4 minutes ago
@trevorcornwell @cheyenneehrlich @votecastr Isn't already past 8am at ET?

trevor cornwell
‏@trevorcornwell
@lluiv @cheyenneehrlich @votecastr it is. Slate has our live feed and will post soon. From 9, watch the War Room at http://ViceNews.com

[Erich Maria Remarque]

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

WTF? So much hype and nothing at all after 1:15 hour...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Slate itself said that they would post their first projections at 11am ET, right?  I assume that's when we'll get something.

Yeah, you're right. So description on votecastr.us is very missleading/wrong...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Colorado projection Clinton 46% vs 44%.   Right?

Johnson 7.4%

Stein 1.6%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yep Clinton 46.0 - Trump 44.0 - Johnson 7.4

Where are you seeing that?

https://news.vice.com/story/live-election-day-turnout-results-with-votecastry?cl=fp

[Erich Maria Remarque]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_colorado_looking_very_very_tight.html

Thanks!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yep. Slate gave following explanation.

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

Florida, Clinton + 102k
2016 Early Vote: 3,685,667 early votes, 41.8 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 1,780,573 early votes, 42.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 1,678,848 early votes, 40.3 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Results: Obama won, 50.0 percent to 49.1 percent


Iowa, Clinton +29k
2016 Early Vote: 563,444 early votes, 35.6 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 273,188 early votes, 33.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 244,739 early votes, 33.5 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.1 percent to 46.5 percent


Nevada, Clinton +7k
2016 Early Vote: 593,964 early votes, 58.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 276,461 early votes, 52.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 269,255 early votes, 58.1 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent


Ohio Clinton+53K
2016 Early Vote: 1,320,559 early votes, 23.7 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 632,433 early votes, 22.4 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 579,916 early votes, 21.8 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent


Pennsylvania, Trump + 14k
2016 Early Vote: 199,167 early votes, 3.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 85,367 early votes, 2.8 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 99,286 early votes, 3.7 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.0 percent to 46.8 percent


Wisconsin, Clinton +70k
2016 Early Vote: 560,455 early votes, 18.3 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 295,302 early votes, 18.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 225,281 early votes, 16.0 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Obama won, 52.8 percent to 46.1 percent

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Tie in EV in Nevada?

Clinton +7K in NV

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump's leading in EV in Nevada?

Weird sh** going on.

But no he doesn't, they just have him overperforming Mittens.

Yeah, sorry.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Are these just for early vote or absentee and early vote?  Numbers look kinda small to include both?

They has not probably all EV data yet. Because in FL it was 6.5 million EV. Here just 3.7 mln so far.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Here is early voting results from 2012 you can use for comparison:

Colorado
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 35 percent
Republicans: 37 percent

Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent

Iowa
Votes: 614,000
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 32 percent

Nevada
Votes: 702,000
Democrats: 44 percent
Republicans: 37 percent

North Carolina
Votes: 2.7 million
Democrats: 48 percent
Republicans: 32 percent

Ohio
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 29 percent
Republicans: 23 percent

It is though party registration numbers. Not the same.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You do realise for self promotional purposes, they want to have some sort of suspenseful narrative

What are you trying to imply?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

These numbers are from early voting, right?

Both? But right now seems that they not have all data from EV yet. Florida is way off, at least.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So Trump is leading PA?

Yes, my friend. Trump is winning the Keystone State.

Haha only ~3% casted votes so far.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

It isn't bed as much as a bad version of a good model starting to get people excited for no good reason.

What's the difference between this and early voting thread?

What you did there, was projecting as well, no?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

Arch isn't bed-wetting. People here are just taking this way too seriously. These aren't actual, raw numbers from counted ballots that say Clinton or Trump. In most instances, they are far too small a percentage of the eventual turnout to amount to anything meaningful (ie Pennsylvania). That some people think this shows anyone is winning any state is dumb.

So was early voting. Right? It is exactly the same.

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

It isn't bed as much as a bad version of a good model starting to get people excited for no good reason.

What's the difference between early voting thread?

What you did there, was projecting as well, no?

You didn't read the post. 

Yes, I did. Early voting thread also made people "to get people excited for no good reason."

It is exactly the same.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Slates Maps are absolutely infuriating. I cant see Clark County or Miami-Dade since the damn thing is off the bottom of the map and I cant scroll down.

A map? Where? Anybody have a link?

Votecastr....slate...maps

http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html

Thanks!