Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

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Well, this will be an extra thing to mash refresh on during the day.

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How accurate is this?

That's the million dollar question, and really, only time will tell. That's why I'd caution people from jumping to conclusions too quickly.

lol

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They are missing votes both there and in Florida. 

I know they are. But they are using voter file for EV in all states, right?

If it was a good model it should.  Considering how bad it is so far I doubt it.

What, specifically, has been so awful about it so far? Do we know there are systematic issues in the algorithms they are running or the data they are pulling? We know some of the data is a bit off perhaps, but do you have tonights results to compare the current projections too? Because if you don't I really don't think its wise to label it as a 'good' or 'bad' model at this point.

It is missing three million votes in Florida, about one hundred thousand in Nevada.  Has people as options that aren't on the ballot, and options that are are not mention.  Any person who makes a model should know these things and have them in it.

it will update those numbers, are you an idiot?

It has been 3 hours and those early votes are still not there.

And given that's its whole shtick is to be, you know, LIVE coverage, not terribly impressive.

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Updated data. Looks great for Clinton. Lead everywhere.

Especially Florida, where her lead has increased to over 200k votes.

Why is it good? It is EV data.

According to polls
a) Clinton has about 6-10% lead in Florida, 10% in Nevada in 26%(!!!) in WI (according to PPP). According to this just 3%

As to that, that's exactly the lead Schale predicted she had in EV last night.

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This thread is going as expected, I see.

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Could we all please calm down and not attack each other about this?  Let's face it, this is a new and unproven technique.  It's interesting to follow, but we will have no idea how accurate or useful it actually was until the full election results are available.

Thank you.