Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Wiz in Wis]

Is CLinton +2 in Colorado now, good news or bad news for her?

The GOP had a 7 point lead in the early vote in 2014 and split the Senate/Gov races. Both were tight. So, this is a 9 point shift from 2014 to Clinton, all else being equal.

Also, the GOP had a slight edge in registered voters who voted early (less than 1%), so this would mean that NPA is leaning Dem a smidge, if their model is right, which is very much in doubt.

[Wiz in Wis]

Looking at how they model Wisconsin's EV, I have to say, I'm surprised at how substantial the Trump under-performance looks in WOW. I know it's early, but he's only winning Ozaukee by 8, while Clinton is taking Milwaukee by about the margin Obama won it in 2012. Romney won Ozaukee by 30 overall in 2012. Same story in Waukesha/Washington/Dodge/Jefferson/Walworth... all huge swings from Romney.

In other words, based on this model (which may be dogpoop)
Strong Dem Counties showing roughly 2012 margin (and a few strong swings to Clinton)
Strong GOP Counties showing huge Trump drop off compared to Romney.

[Wiz in Wis]

Should we be worried about those PA numbers?

It's just based on by mail absentee, so its a very small number, and should be GOP leaning.

[Wiz in Wis]

Eh... PA and NH aren't looking great, and NV still looks weird, but yes, OH, IA, FL and WI looking very good for Hillary.

[Wiz in Wis]

Eh... PA and NH aren't looking great, and NV still looks weird, but yes, OH, IA, FL and WI looking very good for Hillary.

88k in PA and 10k in NH is good for her

Yeah... assuming these are based on the early (today) votes, I guess you have a point, as Dems tend to vote later in the day. Still... not exactly a blowout.

[Wiz in Wis]

Updated data. Looks great for Clinton. Lead everywhere.

Especially Florida, where her lead has increased to over 200k votes.

Why is it good? It is EV data.

According to polls
a) Clinton has about 6-10% lead. According to this just 3%
b) Trump will be doing much better.

It this model is right, than polls overestimated Trump heavily...
Both in FL and NV and WI

But I doubt.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/795455957765681152

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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794571735760797697

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There was a new data dump, vote totals in Florida are now about 7.3 million. A lot of that is early vote, but the morning wave was dumped in as well... so the EV margin is holding.

Put it another way, if Clinton adds another 400k votes, and Trump adds another 500k votes, they hit the Obama/Romney margin. They are very close to 2012 totals already.

[Wiz in Wis]

For those asking for better links to state pages, try this link, and change the 2 letter section at the end of the URL for the state of interest.

http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/OH/

[Wiz in Wis]

It appears the Slate site updated FL total votes now... with Clinton just under 90k votes away from Obama's total in 2012. Trump still 270k away from Romney total.

If this model is correct, the polls were very wrong in FL.

[Wiz in Wis]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

[Wiz in Wis]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

You freaking mean they just allotted the damn early vote based on today's vote.  God damn they are amateur hour.

Actually, they did have maps based just on early vote earlier today (Wisconsin/Iowa/Ohio were much more blue, FL about the same) and then those maps turned quite a bit more Trump friendly. I think they are saying they forgot to merge the data from Map 1 into Map 2, and that Map 2 was just ED vote. I think.

[Wiz in Wis]

What is up with Menominee County WI

Modeling...

[Wiz in Wis]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

[Wiz in Wis]

Pennsylvania: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Florida: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Colorado: C+2
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Iowa: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Nevada: C+1
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

Ohio: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Wisconsin: C+5
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

New Hampshire: C+4
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

Which would mean:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/wOZZQ

Where are these numbers from? Are they projections for end-of-day, or the current state?

This is the current state based on votes cast, not a projection.

Still seems fishy with them saying Clinton ahead in total votes in IA/OH

[Wiz in Wis]

It's worth noting that for all the fuss, the betting markets have not moved more than a single percent in the last 24 hours. Chill out guys, these things are just a very unreliable experiment.

I think this is right. We have no idea how accurate these models are. There are anecdotes about Turnout in FL that point to a big Hillary day in certain counties (Broward, Orange), but those are verified by gov't websites, not guesses by these firms. Everyone needs to wait till votes are counted before we can see how these did.

[Wiz in Wis]

We're going on 2 hours here with no updates and outdated/confusing maps. This is a bust.