2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread**

[Mallow]

Ryan StruykVerified account
‏@ryanstruyk
Nonwhite voters in Michigan:

2008: 18%
2012: 23%
2016 prelim exits: 23%

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/796132165750816768

But I was told AA turnout in Michigan would be WAY down this year.

[IceSpear]

Bayh is currently doing 20 points better than Clinton, Gregg 27 points better...

[Ebsy]

Ryan StruykVerified account
‏@ryanstruyk
Nonwhite voters in Michigan:

2008: 18%
2012: 23%
2016 prelim exits: 23%

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/796132165750816768

But I was told AA turnout in Michigan would be WAY down this year.

Probably due to increased Asian turnout (arabs).

[Likely Voter]

Something to keep in mind at 7pm. 4 years ago only IN, KY, VT were called right away and GA, NH, SC, and VA were too close to call.   

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wow, Clinton is up big in Fayette County, KY.

What is it?  The NY Times has nothing for it yet.

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/2016-president/kentucky/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

IN looks like it might finish close to 60% statewide after all is counted. I only had it at 50%+ in my prediction.

KY will definitely finish above 60% though.

Bit early for that sparky.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone looking at predictit.org?

https://electionbettingodds.com/, which combines betfair and predictit odds, is at 84.3% Clinton.  It was 81.9 this morning and 82.3 in mid-afternoon.

How likely will Hillary Clinton win in a landslide tonight?

Seems unlikely.  Most models are predicting a comfortable but not huge Clinton victory (~4% PV margin and roughly in the 300-340 EV range.)

[Tender Branson]

Ryan StruykVerified account
‏@ryanstruyk
Nonwhite voters in Michigan:

2008: 18%
2012: 23%
2016 prelim exits: 23%

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/796132165750816768

But I was told AA turnout in Michigan would be WAY down this year.

Probably due to increased Asian turnout (arabs).

I'd be very cautious about "preliminary early exit polls". They also had John Kerry ahead ...

Let's wait for the real votes ...

[IceSpear]

Ryan StruykVerified account
‏@ryanstruyk
Nonwhite voters in Michigan:

2008: 18%
2012: 23%
2016 prelim exits: 23%

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/796132165750816768

But I was told AA turnout in Michigan would be WAY down this year.

Probably due to increased Asian turnout (arabs).

I'd be very cautious about "preliminary early exit polls". They also had John Kerry ahead ...

Let's wait for the real votes ...

Says the guy that is making margin calls based off rural heavily GOP counties...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Funny educated Latina in CNN. Triggered

[Cali123]

Anyone looking at predictit.org?

https://electionbettingodds.com/, which combines betfair and predictit odds, is at 84.3% Clinton.  It was 81.9 this morning and 82.3 in mid-afternoon.

How likely will Hillary Clinton win in a landslide tonight?

Seems unlikely.  Most models are predicting a comfortable but not huge Clinton victory (~4% PV margin and roughly in the 300-340 EV range.)

Thanks for the 411. If Clinton does win I'll jump up and click my heels together. But if Trump does I'll say a prayer. In case of emergency.

[TDantuono]

What time should this circus be called by?

[rob in cal]

   We need to stop ignoring the big news, Mcmuffin is ahead of Stein in Kentucky.

[Angrie]

Clinton up 49-48 in Allen County Indiana (Fort Wayne). Romney beat Obama 57-41 there.

[Zanas]

Wolf Blitzer is repeatedly referring to Georgia as a battleground, so I think we can safely say the night ends in a Clinton landslide. (#sarcasm)

[Tender Branson]

This is pretty much going as I expected it ...

Trump holding his own, thanks to strong results in rural areas.

Hillary will win the urban and suburban, educated parts of the country like CO and VA and thus the election.

Not bad results for both of them really.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What time should this circus be called by?

Not earlier than 11pm EST, when the polls close on the West Coast.  And then only if Clinton has a comfortable lead nationwide.  If she doesn't, it could be a very long night.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm going to be off Atlas for the rest of the night, but I'm hoping for a victory!!

[Yank2133]

This is pretty much going as I expected it ...

Trump holding his own, thanks to strong results in rural areas.

Hillary will win the urban and suburban, educated parts of the country like CO and VA and thus the election.

Not bad results for both of them really.

Clinton is running ahead of Obama in 7/8 counties in Indiana.....that isn't a good sign for DT,

[IceSpear]

Clinton up 49-48 in Allen County Indiana (Fort Wayne). Romney beat Obama 57-41 there.

Wayyyy too early to be relevant though.

[Horus]

Per CNN, white vote is down 1 point in Virginia and 3 in Georgia. Educated vote up 7 in Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any guess as to which states will be called at poll closing time?

I think IN and KY for Trump. VT for Clinton. SC, GA, VA too early too call.

Good guesses, although maybe VA for Clinton.

[Baki]

Per CNN:

Virginia and Georgia

Electorate 1-2% less white.
College educated voters SURGE in Georgia  43% in 2012 --> 50% in 2016

[yourelection]

Any guess as to which states will be called at poll closing time?

I think IN and KY for Trump. VT for Clinton. SC, GA, VA too early too call.

That is a pretty safe bet. Although VA will most likely go for Clinton the key district around D.C. will not be enough at 7pm for a call.

[Kalimantan]

Fox doesnt show adverts overseas,  instead shows results and called IN, KY, VT 3 minutes early SC, VA, GA not called yet