Why was Atlas so delusional about the election?

[Desroko]

any poll which didn't show this race to be either tied or +1 point for one of the candidates wasn't correct in any meaningful way.

The likely margin will be Clinton +2, but yes.

[TC 25]

Well I made more than a few statements about Trump's path to victory, the Clinton corruption, Donna Brazile and polls showing Trump doing well.  Usually within minutes I was attacked, mocked, ridiculed.

I'm enjoying today's victory lap and the prospect of a Trump presidency.

MAGA!

[Classic Conservative]

Because it's a freaking cults and cults love their cult leader.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

There were good polls that used a voter file which helped them to weight properly, Selzer and Upshot/Sienna. I had a whole thread about it, but you didn't [want to] listen.

Upshot: FL Trump+2, NC TIE
Selzer: Iowa +7, Florida +3, Nationally Clinton +3.


Those all were perfect +/- 2.

In my thread I quoted this part

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This together with Brexit/Europa was a pretty good indication. No one listened to me
Guess, what

[Desroko]

There were good polls that used a voter file which helped them to weight properly, Selzer and Upshot/Sienna. I had a whole thread about it, but you didn't [want to] listen.

Upshot: FL Trump+2, NC TIE
Selzer: Iowa +7, Florida +3, Nationally Clinton +3.


Those all were perfect +/- 2.

Differential nonresponse is something that can be controlled for, but most pollsters don't - either because of reluctance to embrace innovation or diverge from established practice, or because they refuse to believe it's an issue.

And I think calling off the voter file has to be considered a sine qua non from now on, not just best practice. The polling postmortems are probably going to bear out those two examples.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

oh please stop the BS.

The reason Atlas was bullish on Clinton was the polls and how a godawful candidate Trump was. Bush 43 lost a million votes because of a DUI arrest two decades ago. Everyone assumed that Trump's offensive rhetoric would lead to losses with the general electorate. Which did happen, though it was offset by uneducated whites who turned up in droves

That is not true. Trump has done very well among hispanics - In many states he has beaten or is close to Romney's numbers. He has also beaten Romney in black votes.

Clinton has also under-performed among minority groups.

This is my precise questions - Why are people delusional enough to not realize something like this could happen? Still you guys are blaming on uneducated whites!

Every poll with Trump winning was hammered - When the entire media was working for Clinton & people said so in exit polls you guys refused to acknowledge it.

Clinton had many scams but they were barely posted, shot down while this forum was full of degrading Trump posts!

Why was this forum so delusional?

Shadows is right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It became an echo chamber. Bernie or Trump supporters critical of Hillary were ridiculed.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It became an echo chamber. Bernie or Trump supporters critical of Hillary were ridiculed.

the problem is more like that:

cause clinton isn't their perfect candidate, let's help the candidate who is going to crush our goals.

seems like an easy to ridicule point of view, imho.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

cause clinton isn't their perfect candidate, let's help the candidate who is going to crush our goals.

Yeah, exactly. You have your goals, that you think are only right. So everyone who has a different goals is at least stupid, often stupid and evil according to you. You and your media were pushing your goals 24/7/365.

Now you are out of business. So are your goals.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Yeah, exactly. You have your goals, that you think are only right.

i for my part think, unionized white voters care for social security and financial safety as the center-piece of their voting behaviour.

(seems like a much better guess than racism, eh?)

your take is: they have no problem with losing even more jobs or having their wage decreaed as long as "the elites" are somehow humiliated.

we are going to learn who is right.

[Desroko]

Yeah, exactly. You have your goals, that you think are only right.

i for my part think, unionized white voters care for social security and financial safety as the center-piece of their voting behaviour.

(seems like a much better guess than racism, eh?)

your take is: they have no problem with losing even more jobs or having their wage decreaed as long as "the elites" are somehow humiliated.

we are going to learn who is right.

I don't think that union voters realize that Paul Ryan is going to slash benefits and pass national anti-union legislation while Trump is busy building his replica of the Oval Office in Trump Tower.

[bilaps]

You look at Atlas & it is seems like a Clinton Superpac or fanclub.

Well, there is your answer. People choosing which data to beleive, whether it was early vote or it was a random poll or anecdotal evidence. But nothing we didn't see on twitter from "much respected" "neutral" "experts" telling us all election that Trump can't do this, can't do that and misinterpreting data "big league". I can't even remember what sort of stupid things was written in just last couple of days. Even if you look live thread before crash, you see bunch of RIP Trumps based on exit polls which again failed of course.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I don't think that union voters realize that Paul Ryan is going to slash benefits and pass national anti-union legislation while Trump is busy building his replica of the Oval Office in Trump Tower.

exactly...or they don't care because they think they are screwed anyway and would be happy if "the elites" are enraged too.

well, unionized america is dead the way winds are blowing now and wages are going to go down for sure, especially for trump's less educated base, since the minimum wage is going to decrease too.

[Shadows]

I think it is fair to some Clinton supporters maybe paid operatives & will not come here again now that the Super pac money won't go to them.

There was no fair discussion - Trump was demonized & Hillary was elevated - It is a crazy world when Republicans speak so much more sense & willing to have a discussion here than Democrats!

Hope things change - Look at the attacks on Jfern - This forum has completely lost all credibility IMO - You saw targeted, exaggerated attacks on Stein, Johnson & Trump & anything regarding Clinton was shot down with people mocking people who didn't support Clinton.

It is fair to say Atlas was a Hillary Fan Club - This forum needs reform if it wants to be a discussion board for everyone

[StateBoiler]

oh please stop the BS.

It's a fair point.

[Rand]

It is fair to say Atlas was a Hillary Fan Club - This forum needs reform if it wants to be a discussion board for everyone

Agreed.

[ApatheticAustrian]

majority of political nerds (usually educated people) dislike candidate who seems to be either dangerous for the political process or unable to understand how politics work?

news at 5 before 12.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It is fair to say Atlas was a Hillary Fan Club - This forum needs reform if it wants to be a discussion board for everyone

Agreed.

We probably should start with you

Poor Trump sheep were throbbing for that indictment. It's gonna hurt to lose that AND the election in two days

[Erich Maria Remarque]

majority of politics nerds (usually educated people) dislike candidate who seems to be either dangerous for the political process or unable to understand how politics work?

news at 5 before 12.

What has 538/Upshot to do with atlas?

[Third Party]

You look at Atlas & it is seems like a Clinton Superpac or fanclub.

Why was it so cut off from reality? Every poll with Trump leading was attacked & mocked - People were delusional that Trump would win in a landslide?

People refused to acknowledge how bad a candidate Clinton was.

Why is this?

Are people genuinely star struck & Clinton fans?

Were people naive?

Or are they many Super pac paid people? We know that David Brock has spend Millions of $ to hire people to post online about Clinton!

I personally think it is a combination of all 3 -? Star-struck fans. some naive people & some Super pac trolls possibly ( who will disappear from this forum soon)

Yep, this forum has long been full of Hillary-hacks. It's like a sports forum where they all cheer for the same team. Take a look back at the posts about the 2008 and 2016 Democratic Party primaries. The Hillary-hacks here all thought that she would win vs Obama in 2008 and they thought that Sanders would only win one state (Vermont) in 2016. Then, the trend continued and Hillary was decisively defeated late last night in an election that the Hillary-hacks here had long sworn that she would dominate in.

[Buzz]

Bunch of hacks on here

[Shadows]

You look at Atlas & it is seems like a Clinton Superpac or fanclub.

Why was it so cut off from reality? Every poll with Trump leading was attacked & mocked - People were delusional that Trump would win in a landslide?

People refused to acknowledge how bad a candidate Clinton was.

Why is this?

Are people genuinely star struck & Clinton fans?

Were people naive?

Or are they many Super pac paid people? We know that David Brock has spend Millions of $ to hire people to post online about Clinton!

I personally think it is a combination of all 3 -? Star-struck fans. some naive people & some Super pac trolls possibly ( who will disappear from this forum soon)

Yep, this forum has long been full of Hillary-hacks. It's like a sports forum where they all cheer for the same team. Take a look back at the posts about the 2008 and 2016 Democratic Party primaries. The Hillary-hacks here all thought that she would win vs Obama in 2008 and they thought that Sanders would only win one state (Vermont) in 2016. Then, the trend continued and Hillary was decisively defeated late last night in an election that the Hillary-hacks here had long sworn that she would dominate in.

So this is a forum for hillary hacks & has been for almost a decade?

[Cashew]

The reason Atlas was bullish on Clinton was the polls and how a godawful candidate Trump was. Bush 43 lost a million votes because of a DUI arrest two decades ago. Everyone assumed that Trump's offensive rhetoric would lead to losses with the general electorate.

This. I simply could not believe that the bar for a president had dropped so low.

[anvi]

I'll only speak for myself.

For one thing, I totally underestimated how successfully Trump motivated his constituencies. I've always known the disenfranchized white working class voters, among whom I grew up, have totally legit reasons to be angry that national policies have not done much for them, and I've always thought we should be promoting the growth of new industries, such as transportation, energy and infrastructure both to re-employ them and for the country's benefit. But, mostly because I don't like Trump, and even though most of my bowling teammates and friends from leagues in downstate Illinois and my relatives in NoDak loved Trump, I just didn't listen closely enough and failed to appreciate what a powerful effect his pledges had on them. On this matter, I was stupid.

I watched polls too. I tried to sift out the reliable ones from the stinkers and be objective. But it was a close race, and when one is rooting for a candidate, no matter who it is and from what party, in a close race, it's probably hard in the end not to fall prey to some confirmation bias. I'm sure I did. But nothing I was seeing in the aggregate could have led me to belive that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, or even Michigan, would go for Trump. If I missed the right data, then I missed it.

I didn't really expect Clinton to underperform with all her crucial constituencies either. And that expectation partly resulted from my failure to listen to my friends on the left. So, I was stupid about that too.

In theory, I really prize empirical analysis of data, but in practice, I probably rely far too much on how I think things should be rather than on how they are, and don't keep my ears open and mouth shut enough. I hope I can l learn from this to avoid such mistakes in the future.

Again, just speaking for myself. Confession finished.

[Tender Branson]

I don't know really. Delusion maybe.

I warned them for months in heated debate but they wouldn't listen to me and got only flak from them and accusations that I was "drenched in dog sweat". It was pretty ironic then seeing all the Hillary supporters being drenched in actual dog sweat on election night ...