Obama Approval, border wall, deporting illegals and the 2016 election

[Sbane]

Even in the adjusted exit poll, Obama had a 53% approval rating. Only 41% want to build a wall with Mexico (and probably less want to force Mexico to pay for it) while 54% oppose. And even more stunning is that 70% want to offer legal status to those here illegally. That is higher than I have seen in any poll I remember. So what the hell happened? Why is Hillary not president right now?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Even in the adjusted exit poll, Obama had a 53% approval rating. Only 41% want to build a wall with Mexico (and probably less want to force Mexico to pay for it) while 54% oppose. And even more stunning is that 70% want to offer legal status to those here illegally. That is higher than I have seen in any poll I remember. So what the hell happened? Why is Hillary not president right now?

I can't believe it either! Do exit pollsters just not pick up rural voters?

[Sbane]

Even in the adjusted exit poll, Obama had a 53% approval rating. Only 41% want to build a wall with Mexico (and probably less want to force Mexico to pay for it) while 54% oppose. And even more stunning is that 70% want to offer legal status to those here illegally. That is higher than I have seen in any poll I remember. So what the hell happened? Why is Hillary not president right now?

I can't believe it either! Do exit pollsters just not pick up rural voters?

Before the exit polls were adjusted, I believe Obama had a 54% approval rating but 53 is pretty impressive as well. And I think it is safe to say a majority of Americans don't want a border wall and a super majority don't want to deport every illegal immigrant. And yet Trump is president. What gives?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Even in the adjusted exit poll, Obama had a 53% approval rating. Only 41% want to build a wall with Mexico (and probably less want to force Mexico to pay for it) while 54% oppose. And even more stunning is that 70% want to offer legal status to those here illegally. That is higher than I have seen in any poll I remember. So what the hell happened? Why is Hillary not president right now?

I can't believe it either! Do exit pollsters just not pick up rural voters?

Before the exit polls were adjusted, I believe Obama had a 54% approval rating but 53 is pretty impressive as well. And I think it is safe to say a majority of Americans don't want a border wall and a super majority don't want to deport every illegal immigrant. And yet Trump is president. What gives?

I have no idea!!! I'm just incredibly curious why rural areas have swung so hard R...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Even in the adjusted exit poll, Obama had a 53% approval rating. Only 41% want to build a wall with Mexico (and probably less want to force Mexico to pay for it) while 54% oppose. And even more stunning is that 70% want to offer legal status to those here illegally. That is higher than I have seen in any poll I remember. So what the hell happened? Why is Hillary not president right now?

I can't believe it either! Do exit pollsters just not pick up rural voters?

Before the exit polls were adjusted, I believe Obama had a 54% approval rating but 53 is pretty impressive as well. And I think it is safe to say a majority of Americans don't want a border wall and a super majority don't want to deport every illegal immigrant. And yet Trump is president. What gives?

That people are smart enough to not understand everything literally.

[Sbane]

Even in the adjusted exit poll, Obama had a 53% approval rating. Only 41% want to build a wall with Mexico (and probably less want to force Mexico to pay for it) while 54% oppose. And even more stunning is that 70% want to offer legal status to those here illegally. That is higher than I have seen in any poll I remember. So what the hell happened? Why is Hillary not president right now?

I can't believe it either! Do exit pollsters just not pick up rural voters?

Before the exit polls were adjusted, I believe Obama had a 54% approval rating but 53 is pretty impressive as well. And I think it is safe to say a majority of Americans don't want a border wall and a super majority don't want to deport every illegal immigrant. And yet Trump is president. What gives?

That people are smart enough to not understand everything literally.

So you don't think he should deport all illegal immigrants or make Mexico build a border wall?

[Kalimantan]

Even in the adjusted exit poll, Obama had a 53% approval rating. Only 41% want to build a wall with Mexico (and probably less want to force Mexico to pay for it) while 54% oppose. And even more stunning is that 70% want to offer legal status to those here illegally. That is higher than I have seen in any poll I remember. So what the hell happened? Why is Hillary not president right now?

I can't believe it either! Do exit pollsters just not pick up rural voters?

Before the exit polls were adjusted, I believe Obama had a 54% approval rating but 53 is pretty impressive as well. And I think it is safe to say a majority of Americans don't want a border wall and a super majority don't want to deport every illegal immigrant. And yet Trump is president. What gives?

That people are smart enough to not understand everything literally.

...or the complete opposite of 'smart'?

[Rand]

Either people were dishonest in the polls or simply held their nose and voted for "change".

[Beet]

Yeah, according to the polls Frodo posts, most people support free trade, too. White people care about a Mexican kid in Texas about as much as they care about a Syrian kid in Aleppo.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So you don't think he should deport all illegal immigrants or make Mexico build a border wall?

Deporation. He shouldn't and he won't. It is practically impossible to deport all of them.

Wall. He might build extra "good" fence or something. It'll be probably enough if he directs more resources to boarder control, probably sent scary military. Signals matter. Mexicans know that are not welcome anymore to come illegally, so they won't.

[SirMuxALot]

So now we're going to spend four years hanging our hats on an exit poll that (probably) wildly missed on the top line?

Per Frank Luntz, PA exit poll had Hillary winning by +5.  Actual result: -1

That's the only state non-adjusted number I've seen.  Given what NYT forecast machine was showing for Hillary win probability before actual votes rolled in, I have to guess a huge number of states had similar error.

Yet we're supposed to believe the raw Obama approval rating of 54 was only off by 1 (adjusted to 53)?  Not buying that.  It's more likely Obama job approval among voters was somewhere in 48-51 range.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So now we're going to spend four years hanging our hats on an exit poll that (probably) wildly missed on the top line?

Per Frank Luntz, PA exit poll had Hillary winning by +5.  Actual result: -1

That's the only state non-adjusted number I've seen.  Given what NYT forecast machine was showing for Hillary win probability before actual votes rolled in, I have to guess a huge number of states had similar error.

Yet we're supposed to believe the raw Obama approval rating of 54 was only off by 1 (adjusted to 53)?  Not buying that.  It's more likely Obama job approval among voters was somewhere in 48-51 range.

Does Gallup even care about voters any more, since they stopped polling elections?

[Sbane]

So now we're going to spend four years hanging our hats on an exit poll that (probably) wildly missed on the top line?

Per Frank Luntz, PA exit poll had Hillary winning by +5.  Actual result: -1

That's the only state non-adjusted number I've seen.  Given what NYT forecast machine was showing for Hillary win probability before actual votes rolled in, I have to guess a huge number of states had similar error.

Yet we're supposed to believe the raw Obama approval rating of 54 was only off by 1 (adjusted to 53)?  Not buying that.  It's more likely Obama job approval among voters was somewhere in 48-51 range.

The national exit poll was only off by about 4 points. An adjustment of 2 points to Obamas approval rating seems fine. Maybe it should be adjusted more but he is above 50%.

[SirMuxALot]

Does Gallup even care about voters any more, since they stopped polling elections?

That's a good point, forgot about the Gallup poll showing Obama at 56.  I have to assume they don't do any sort of likely voter screen any more, right?  (Did they ever for Pres. job approval?)  So their Presidential job approval will include a huge sample of non-voters.

So it's apples and oranges for us to compare Gallup job approval to any election poll or exit poll job approval.

[SirMuxALot]

The national exit poll was only off by about 4 points. An adjustment of 2 points to Obamas approval rating seems fine. Maybe it should be adjusted more but he is above 50%.

Hmm.  I'm skeptical of the implied supposition that the 4% of missed Trump voters would split about 50-50 on Obama job approval.  I think intuitively we might even suppose they'd be at least north of 80 for disapprove.

[henster]

Trump has around 47% of the vote Obama JA 53/47, things make less sense in plurality victories.

[Sbane]

The national exit poll was only off by about 4 points. An adjustment of 2 points to Obamas approval rating seems fine. Maybe it should be adjusted more but he is above 50%.

Hmm.  I'm skeptical of the implied supposition that the 4% of missed Trump voters would split about 50-50 on Obama job approval.  I think intuitively we might even suppose they'd be at least north of 80 for disapprove.

He started off at 54-44 approval while Hillary was winning by about 5 points. That got adjusted down to about a 1 point win for Hillary in the popular vote. Obama's approval rating was only adjusted down to 53-45. Maybe it should be something like 52-46 but he was above water. I think a lot of people in places like the Mahoning Valley, Erie,PA and Scranton-Wilkes Barre still like him even though they voted against Hillary. They were the difference between a Hillary win and loss.

[Shadows]

Because Clinton is the MOST unelectable Dem candidate in modern history & people who voted for her in the primary should make an unconditional apology for electing Trump!

[SirMuxALot]

Trump has around 47% of the vote Obama JA 53/47, things make less sense in plurality victories.

Good point, that is within the realm of possibility.

The counter-intuitive implication of that is that 5% of voters approved of Obama, but chose to not vote for Hillary.  That's a fairly striking number.

[henster]

Obama JA according to exits in OH(51/47), PA(51/48), MI(54/45!), WI (52/47), FL(51/47).

[Panda Express]

Obama JA according to exits in OH(51/47), PA(51/48), MI(54/45!), WI (52/47), FL(51/47).

I want to smack those sexist bastards who voted Kerry-Obama-Obama-Trump and who approve of Obama.