Cooper will (hopefully) win the NC Governorship (analysing provisional ballots).

[Sorenroy]

Bar finding an error in the votes already counted, Pat McCrory will probably not win reelection as NC Governor. I can’t really foresee McCrory getting the necessary 5,415 votes needed to beat Cooper from the remaining provisional ballots in the state.


Note that all numbers observe only the two major party candidates.


In 2012, 21,754 ballots were cast provisionally and counted and 4,350,533 ballots were cast either on election day or by one stop or absentee by mail early voting in the NC Governor's race (0.005:1). Pat McCrory won 2,430,697 (56%) non-provisional ballots and 10,010 (46%) provisional ballots.
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/42923/123365/Web01/en/summary.html


In 2016, between the two major candidates, 4,563,311 ballots were cast either on election day or by one stop or absentee by mail early voting in the NC Governor's race. Pat McCrory won 2,278,827 (50%) non-provisional ballots. Roy Cooper won 2,284,484 (50%) non-provisional ballots. Assuming the same ratio of provisional to non-provisional ballots as in 2012 (0.005:1), about 22,818 provisional ballots will be counted. In order to make up the 5,657 ballot gap, Pat McCrory must win 14,238 of the provisional ballots, or 62%.
http://er.ncsbe.gov/


In a race where McCrory has already seen his two way non-provisional margin slide by 12 points (from 12% to 0%), I can't really see him magically improving his provisional ballot standings by 33 points (from -8% to 25%).


That being said, of the 1,186 provisional ballots counted so far, McCrory does lead by 20% (714 [60%] - 472 [40%]), or only 4% down from his target. In order to make up the remaining 5,415 ballot gap, McCrory needs to win 13,524 of the remaining provisional ballots, or 63%. If McCrory gets the rest of the provisional ballots on his current margin, he will still lose by 1,001 ballots after everything is counted.

[Mr. Smith]

Deus Ex-Republicana will give it to him.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It likely will be close enough to go to a recount.  I bet Cooper wins, but we might not know until December.

[Maxwell]

*wipes forehead* glad we didn't blow this one.

[Sorenroy]

Modifying the first post because it appears that Cooper's lead was increased from a source other than provisional ballots. Also updated to reflect that over 1,000 provisional ballots have now been counted.

It's gonna be a close one folks!

[Gass3268]

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[Sorenroy]

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Where are these votes coming from though? Uncounted absentees?

Also, where is he getting this? The NC State Board of Elections still has it 5,415.

[Greedo punched first]

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Where are these votes coming from though? Uncounted absentees?

Also, where is he getting this? The NC State Board of Elections still has it 5,415.

They are from uncounted absentees.

[Nyvin]

McCory's argument for "voter fraud" in his election are absolutely crazy!

Why in the hell would election officials (the majority of which are Republicans) rig the election to make Cooper win....and yet Trump still carries the state by 3-4 points.   WTF, you've gotta be kidding me!

[Adam Griffin]

Worth noting.

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[ASPN]

Worth noting.

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Huh, never heard of that before. That seems like a rule that uh, shouldn't exist. Like, that's a law that is just begging to be abused. And may very well soon be used, to give the governorship to a man who didn't win.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Worth noting.

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Huh, never heard of that before. That seems like a rule that uh, shouldn't exist. Like, that's a law that is just begging to be abused. And may very well soon be used, to give the governorship to a man who didn't win.

Surely this laws constitutionality would get challenged

[Greedo punched first]

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That is likely unconstitutional.

[GlobeSoc]

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That is likely unconstitutional.

That won't matter if Trump gets his Supreme Court pick through before that case would be reviewed. The Conservatives on the court would bow to partisan pressure.

We just need to hope that no shenanigans are pulled, unfortunately.

[Greedo punched first]

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That is likely unconstitutional.

That won't matter if Trump gets his Supreme Court pick through before that case would be reviewed. The Conservatives on the court would bow to partisan pressure.

We just need to hope that no shenanigans are pulled, unfortunately.

This probably won't make the Supreme Court. I don't think Kennedy would just hand the race to McCrory.

[BL53931]

I will not be at rest on this until the process is ended and Cooper wins it. I doubt a margin of several thousand will prevent McCrory and his despicable Repunganticans from stealing this election. Gotta keep them gays outa our rest rooms.

[Nyvin]

Cooper's advantage officially passed 10k (10,257 currently).    Doesn't that have some legal ramifications?   Can McCory still challenge it?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Cooper's advantage officially passed 10k (10,257 currently).    Doesn't that have some legal ramifications?   Can McCory still challenge it?

not mandatory but durham gets recounted anyway and there are still some counties out.