Why believe the exit polls?

[bilaps]

Honest question.

I don't believe them anything. If there really was a shy Trump effect which I don't know if it's true why would people be honest in the exit polls if they weren't before election?

[Likely Voter]

the first wave of exits were clearly wrong but the final update seems to match up with the results both nationally and at the state level. Surely there will be some error, especially with smaller subsamples, but they are still a useful tool to understand what's happening.

[Desroko]

the first wave of exits were clearly wrong but the final update seems to match up with the results both nationally and at the state level. Surely there will be some error, especially with smaller subsamples, but they are still a useful tool to understand what's happening.

That's because the final exit poll is pegged to the reported vote shares.

You should not trust exit polls. Wait for the census data next year.