Likely New PVIs

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Using the Cook formula, which considers a Republican winning 51-49 in a 50-50 election R+1, not R+2, and which goes back two cycles.

I'm using a national PV of Clinton +0.5, but it's unclear of its exact margin, of course!  And, I'm baking the national margins into these!

Alabama: Romney +24.1, Trump +28.8; AVG: 26.45 --> R+13
Alaska: Romney +17.9, Trump +15.7; AVG: 16.8--> R+8
Arizona: Romney +13.0, Trump +4.8; AVG: 8.9--> R+4
Arkansas: Romney +27.6, Trump +27.1; AVG: 27.35--> R+14
California: Obama +16.2, Clinton +27.7; AVG: 21.95--> D+11
Colorado: Obama +1.5, Clinton +1.6; AVG: 1.65--> D+1
Connecticut: Obama +13.4, Clinton +11.7; AVG: 12.55--> D+6
Delaware: Obama +14.7, Clinton +11.0; AVG: 12.85--> D+6
Florida: Romney +3.0, Trump +1.8; AVG: 2.4--> R+1
Georgia: Romney +11.7, Trump +6.2; AVG: 8.95--> R+4
Hawaii: Obama +38.8, Clinton +31.7; AVG: 35.25--> D+18
Idaho: Romney +35.8, Trump +32.1; AVG: 33.45--> R+17
Illinois: Obama +13.0, Clinton +15.5, AVG: 14.25--> D+7
Indiana: Romney +14.1, Trump +19.8, AVG: 16.95--> R+8
Iowa: Obama +1.8, Trump +10.1: AVG: 4.15--> R+2
Kansas: Romney +23.6, Trump +21.5; AVG: 22.55--> R+11
Kentucky: Romney +26.6, Trump +30.3; AVG: 28.45--> R+14
Louisiana: Romney +21.1, Trump +20.2; AVG: 20.65--> R+10
Maine: Obama +11.4, Clinton +2.2; AVG: 6.8--> D+3
Maryland: Obama +22.2, Clinton +24.7; AVG: 23.45--> D+12
Massachusetts: Obama +19.2, Clinton +26.8; AVG: 23.0--> D+11-12
Michigan: Obama +5.6, Trump +0.8; AVG: 2.4--> D+1
Minnesota: Obama +3.8, Clinton +0.9; AVG: 2.35--> D+1
Mississippi: Romney +15.4, Trump +19.0; AVG: 17.2--> R+9
Missouri: Romney +13.3, Trump +19.6; AVG: 16.45--> R+8
Montana: Romney +17.6, Trump +21.0; AVG: 19.3--> R+10
Nebraska: Romney +25.7, Trump +26.8; AVG: 26.25--> R+13
Nevada: Obama +2.8, Clinton +1.9; AVG: 2.35--> D+1
New Hampshire: Obama +1.7, Trump +0.3; AVG: 0.7--> EVEN
New Jersey: Obama +13.9, Clinton 12.3; AVG: 13.1--> D+7
New Mexico: Obama +6.3, Clinton +7.8; AVG: 7.05--> D+4
New York: Obama +24.3, Clinton +20.8; AVG: 22.05--> D+11
North Carolina: Romney +5.9, Trump +4.3; AVG: 5.1--> R+3
North Dakota: Romney +23.5, Trump +36.8; AVG: 30.15--> R+15
Ohio: Romney +0.9, Trump +9.1; AVG: 5.0--> R+2-3
Oklahoma: Romney +37.3, Trump +36.9; AVG: 37.1--> R+19
Oregon: Obama +8.2, Clinton +10.1; AVG: 9.15--> D+5
Pennsylvania: Obama +1.5, Trump +1.7; AVG: 0.1--> EVEN
Rhode Island: Obama +23.6, Clinton +14.1; AVG: 18.85--> D+9
South Carolina: Romney +14.4, Trump +14.6; AVG: 14.5--> R+7
South Dakota: Romney +21.9, Trump +30.3; AVG: 26.1--> R+13
Tennessee: Romney +24.3, Trump +26.7; AVG: 25.0--> R+12-13
Texas: Romney +19.7, Trump +9.7; AVG: 14.7--> R+7
Utah**: Romney +51.9, Trump +19.5; AVG: 35.7--> R+18
Vermont: Obama +31.7, Clinton +28.0; AVG: 29.85--> D+15
Virginia: Tie, Clinton +4.4; AVG: 2.2--> D+1
Washington: Obama +11.0, Clinton +17.0; AVG: 14.0--> D+7
West Virginia: Romney +30.7, Trump +42.7; AVG: 36.7--> R+18
Wisconsin: Obama +3.1, Trump +1.5; AVG: 0.8--> EVEN
Wyoming: Romney +44.7, Trump +48.1; AVG: 46.4--> R+23
**Utah could be off by a little more due to high third party vote making my easier, but less exact, calculations slightly further off.

Our two largest states, California and Texas, both trended Democratic massively, allowing most of the rest of the country to trend Republican relative to the nation as a whole.  Iowa flipped all the way from D+1 to R+2 (R+5 just based on 2016).  Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire are now even.  PA is technically just to the right of the nation as a whole over the last two elections, while the other two are just to the left of the nation as a whole.  The swing states lined up favorably for Trump, with Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire (plus ME-02) all flipping from more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2012 to more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2016.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2016 trends relative to the nation as a whole:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Thanks! Very interesting.

All of this does depend on the national popular vote's final margin.  I used C+0.5 as an estimate, but a slight increase in Hillary's margin could flip Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Colorado to a Republican trend.

[/]

2016 trends relative to the nation as a whole:

I have Alaska and South Carolina trending D, but only ever so slightly.

[Kingpoleon]

What happened in Illinois? Did Duckworth and the Obama couple really push up Democratic turnout there?

[Person Man]

I definitely think that it might take a lot for Colorado (after the hatred of the Clintons and anti-incumbency) for Republicans to win there. Virginia might be off the table but maybe there was a well-engineered favorite son effect. Iowa and Ohio look gone.

The Democrats need to do better in the sunbelt as they are squeezed out of the rust belt.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What happened in Illinois? Did Duckworth and the Obama couple really push up Democratic turnout there?

Collapse in the collar counties.

Dupage was about a 1% less Democratic than the whole state.

Considering Bush won Dupage by 10% while losing the state by 10%. That is a pretty big shift. Even in 2012, Romney narrowly lost it while losing the state by a similar margin.

Trump out performed Romney in the down state but lost more ground in the suburbs.

[eric82oslo]

The Clinton coalition, showing the strongest Democratic trends (changes are approximate): Utah (+32.4%), California (+11.5%), Texas (+10.0%), Arizona (+8.2%), Massachusetts (+7.6%), Washington (+6.0%), Georgia (+5.5%), Virginia (+4.4%)

The Trump coalition: North Dakota (+13.3%), West Virginia (+12.0%), Iowa (+11.9%), Rhode Island (+9.5%), Maine (+9.2%), South Dakota (+8.4%), Ohio (+8.2%), Hawaii (+7.1%), Michigan (+6.4%), Missouri (+6.3%), Indiana (+5.7%)

(The percentages above are based on the numbers presented in the initial post of this thread.)

That's it folks. The West in general, and the big, Southwestern states in particular, trended sharply Democratic in this election. So did the urban, highly-educated, rapidly changing states of Massachusetts, Georgia and Virginia.

The white rustbelt, Midwest and rural northeastern states however, mostly trended Republican, either somewhat or strongly so. So did in particular economically challenging states (of recent upheaval or more long-term trends) like North Dakota (oil bust), West Virginia, Ohio and Michigan. Add in Rhode Island, one of the states most hardly hit by the 2008 recession, when the state's unemployment rate reached around 10%, one of the highest of any states. Hawaii however, saw a backlash from their favourite son no longer being on the ticket.

The trends could not have been clearer in this election. Have in mind that 2020 will be a status quo election however, or a Trump referendum if you will, just like the 2012, 2004 and 1996 elections also were, so the states are not expected to change or trend very sharply in the upcoming election, other than underlying long term trends that will be going on no matter what.

Look at remarkable stable state of Florida, which has hardly trended anything at all over the past 16 years, either in the one or the other direction. Truely remarkable. Sharp demographic shifts have been offset there by other factors again and again.

It's really odd to see Massachusetts on the one hand, and its two neighbours, Rhode Island and Maine, trending in such sharply different directions. Especially the strong Massachusetts/Rhode Island divergence is mind-boggling.

[eric82oslo]

2016 trends relative to the nation as a whole:

It seems to be mostly right, but Alaska however trended Democratic.

Four states clearly stand out on the map; Nevada, South Carolina, Massachusetts and Illinois.

If you look closer at the numbers, you will see that Chicago, which trended sharply Democratic in this election, and which arguably gave Clinton her strongest absolute margin of any city, without perhaps Los Angeles in the end, is surrounding itself in a deep blue sea of states all trending sharply Republican, including downstate Illinois. Some of the strongest Republican trends of any states were seen to the east, west, south and north of Chicago, and particularily so to the east with Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and West Virginia as the most dramatic examples.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2016 trends relative to the nation as a whole:

It seems to be mostly right, but Alaska however trended Democratic.

Four states clearly stand out on the map; Nevada, South Carolina, Massachusetts and Illinois.

If you look closer at the numbers, you will see that Chicago, which trended sharply Democratic in this election, and which arguably gave Clinton her strongest absolute margin of any city, without perhaps Los Angeles in the end, is surrounding itself in a deep blue sea of states all trending sharply Republican, including downstate Illinois. Some of the strongest Republican trends of any states were seen to the east, west, south and north of Chicago, and particularily so to the east with Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and West Virginia as the most dramatic examples.

Yes, Alaska was an error on my original map.  I will go fix it.  And, to whoever said SC trended Democratic, it could, but only if Hillary's final margin is less than 0.3.