Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:03:14 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 36 37 38 39 40 [41]
Author Topic: Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration  (Read 209594 times)
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,511
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1000 on: August 06, 2020, 12:37:33 AM »

Does TD even still post here? I'd be curious to see his thoughts on how the pandemic, recession, and Trump's and the GOP's handling of relate to this timeline.

I mean there are some significant parallels between this timeline and real world events.

He may be waiting until early next year to see how things play out. 
Logged
ShadowRocket
cb48026
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,456


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1001 on: August 16, 2020, 02:35:10 PM »

Does TD even still post here? I'd be curious to see his thoughts on how the pandemic, recession, and Trump's and the GOP's handling of relate to this timeline.

I mean there are some significant parallels between this timeline and real world events.

He may be waiting until early next year to see how things play out. 


Hopefully he does. I was thinking the other day that Biden picking Harris is analogous to Cordray picking Castro in this timeline.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1002 on: August 19, 2020, 04:41:44 PM »

Uncle Joe Biden is still very active in Democratic politics and cancer research. In fact, the Democratic Party will be likely taking a road traveled by Joe Biden to attract populism. In many ways, the '24 elections will vindicate Biden's retail populism over Obama's intellectual technocracy, as '20 did. Expect Joe to be very happy in 2025. Joe Biden is the unsung hero of this saga.

Near-prescience, perhaps?
Logged
ShadowRocket
cb48026
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,456


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1003 on: September 02, 2020, 02:41:05 PM »

Uncle Joe Biden is still very active in Democratic politics and cancer research. In fact, the Democratic Party will be likely taking a road traveled by Joe Biden to attract populism. In many ways, the '24 elections will vindicate Biden's retail populism over Obama's intellectual technocracy, as '20 did. Expect Joe to be very happy in 2025. Joe Biden is the unsung hero of this saga.

Near-prescience, perhaps?

If you think about it, Biden pretty much checks off the qualities that TD listed for a realigning President to have: older, extensive experience in elected office, suffered several electoral defeats, and is from the same region as the foreshadowing President (he represented DE obviously in the Senate but is from PA and is culturally Midwestern).
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1004 on: September 02, 2020, 02:44:50 PM »

Uncle Joe Biden is still very active in Democratic politics and cancer research. In fact, the Democratic Party will be likely taking a road traveled by Joe Biden to attract populism. In many ways, the '24 elections will vindicate Biden's retail populism over Obama's intellectual technocracy, as '20 did. Expect Joe to be very happy in 2025. Joe Biden is the unsung hero of this saga.

Near-prescience, perhaps?

If you think about it, Biden pretty much checks off the qualities that TD listed for a realigning President to have: older, extensive experience in elected office, suffered several electoral defeats, and is from the same region as the foreshadowing President (he represented DE obviously in the Senate but is from PA and is culturally Midwestern).


Yes but Biden is not someone who like say Reagan and FDR were  ideologically different than the previous consensus .
Logged
Blackacre
Spenstar3D
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1005 on: September 02, 2020, 03:02:53 PM »

Uncle Joe Biden is still very active in Democratic politics and cancer research. In fact, the Democratic Party will be likely taking a road traveled by Joe Biden to attract populism. In many ways, the '24 elections will vindicate Biden's retail populism over Obama's intellectual technocracy, as '20 did. Expect Joe to be very happy in 2025. Joe Biden is the unsung hero of this saga.

Near-prescience, perhaps?

If you think about it, Biden pretty much checks off the qualities that TD listed for a realigning President to have: older, extensive experience in elected office, suffered several electoral defeats, and is from the same region as the foreshadowing President (he represented DE obviously in the Senate but is from PA and is culturally Midwestern).


Yes but Biden is not someone who like say Reagan and FDR were  ideologically different than the previous consensus .

FDR was a fiscal conservative until he became President, but he stepped up to meet the moment. Reagan was untethered from the prior consensus. Either type of person could work as the realignment figure.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1006 on: September 02, 2020, 03:09:37 PM »

Uncle Joe Biden is still very active in Democratic politics and cancer research. In fact, the Democratic Party will be likely taking a road traveled by Joe Biden to attract populism. In many ways, the '24 elections will vindicate Biden's retail populism over Obama's intellectual technocracy, as '20 did. Expect Joe to be very happy in 2025. Joe Biden is the unsung hero of this saga.

Near-prescience, perhaps?

If you think about it, Biden pretty much checks off the qualities that TD listed for a realigning President to have: older, extensive experience in elected office, suffered several electoral defeats, and is from the same region as the foreshadowing President (he represented DE obviously in the Senate but is from PA and is culturally Midwestern).

Yes but Biden is not someone who like say Reagan and FDR were  ideologically different than the previous consensus .

FDR was a fiscal conservative until he became President, but he stepped up to meet the moment. Reagan was untethered from the prior consensus. Either type of person could work as the realignment figure.

Yeah, this. When extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures, even moderates can turn out to be the right person for the times. I have no doubt that Biden would prove to be the same, regardless of how unlikely that may have seemed to some once upon a time.
Logged
timrtabor123
Newbie
*
Posts: 3
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1007 on: November 04, 2020, 01:21:16 PM »

RIP this timeline’s broadstrokes?
Logged
BigVic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,482
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1008 on: November 05, 2020, 06:41:39 AM »

President Pence winning in a non-COVID world in 2020 easily
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1009 on: November 06, 2020, 06:06:56 AM »

Yeah, I guess this is game over for the TL.

The new "Atlas predictive TL" might actually be Reagente's "Cross of Globalism" one, as depressing as it sounds.

Biden being a 1 term do-nothing president, stalled by Congress and then Carlson winning 2024 setting those events in motion seems like a more likely scenario that this TL unfortunately.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,511
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1010 on: November 11, 2020, 05:13:43 PM »

Yeah, this timeline is dead in the water.  Well written and a good read, though.  It almost seemed prescient at times. 
Logged
jojoju1998
1970vu
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,414
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1011 on: March 09, 2021, 08:38:01 PM »

The Republican Party’s inability to govern after 2006 spoke to the economic fundamentals. What bound the great Republican coalitions together was the unspoken belief that neoliberal economics helped all within it. As long as the good times rolled on, the GOP could build majorities. But propelled by weak economic times, Appalachia and poor whites took the Bannonite camp’s side in the internal warfare that roiled Republican politics from 2011 to 2037. But the fact no crisis had happened kept the establishment strong enough to not cede power to the Bannon wing. Two failed Presidencies in a row (Trump’s and Pence’s) spoke to this fundamental weakness.

The election of 2024, with Ohio Gov. Richard Adams Cordray (who squeaked to a 51-48% victory over Republican DeWine and stomped to a re-election 61-36% victory in 2022) prevailing, spoke to how devastated the middle class was (wide swaths of Appalachia and the poorest Southern regions swung heavily Democratic) spoke to this.

The crisis of 2021 was the first real non-US/European crisis that was global in nature and long lasting. China’s massive panic and the spreading conflagration engulfed the world  

When President Richard Adams “Rich” Cordray took power in 2025, he unveiled a number of unusual initiatives that spoke to the crisis. Instead of a traditional bailout package, President Cordray pushed single payer and universal college initiatives, as well as a radical student debt loan restructuring package. The President understood that relieving these economic pressures on the American middle class would allow them to rebound much faster than a traditional tax cut. Republicans lambasted the moves, arguing Cordray was enacting his agenda at the expense of economic recovery, missing the point that relieving the pressures on the middle and working class would power economic growth. Cordray had been educated and guided by his time at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau from 2011 to 2017, and as Ohio Governor.

In Europe and Asia, world leaders followed Cordray’s lead and restructured their economies to give additional purchasing power to the middle and working class, understanding that economic growth was impossible otherwise. It was a sea change from neoliberal economics but not a return to welfare state economics. Indeed, this new economics focused on delivering essential services to the middle and working class to boost economic growth. With automation becoming a huge issue in the 2030s and 2040s, it was essential for many governments to create a sustainable economic base that was able to create value and build wealth assets. Those nations that were left behind (the most autocratic nations, in other words) suffered and stagnated mightily.

President Cordray also controversially adopted the policy of “helicopter money,” popularized by Ben Bernanke and adopted by President George W. Bush in 2008. He sent out a $1,000 rebate to everyone making income of below $50,000 in an attempt to clean out the balance of the weak middle class - and would do it for four years in a row (Cordray carefully structured the program to exclude those who were obviously rich and would manipulate their income and the program mostly worked). Republicans howled that it would lead to inflation (in line with their inability to shift to the new economic paradigm) and complain the program was being abused. But the President knew that he was infusing the middle and working class with enough income to rebound from the economic crisis. Because the middle and lower classes were so weak, inflation rates never rose significantly enough to be a threat because spending was limited to these people and they propelled the economy with their spending. It was the dry run for an UBI in fact - an issue revisited under the confirming Democratic Presidency headed by a fellow Midwesterner a generation later.

The world - as it had done in 1945 and 1981 - shifted again and the populist revolts quieted down as governments began to focus on delivering economic growth to the broad electorate.

Written with thanks to TT’s work on helicopter money


Now that I think about it after being off Election atlas Forum for so long, and reading this timeline over and over again, I think a version of this can happen. I mean, let's take a look at what has happened the last two months.

HELICOPTER MONEY : The Helicopter Money part especially is presicent. Biden's Massive Stimulus Package includes direct payments to individuals making below 100k or something like that. Sounds very familiar to TD's Timeline where Cordray pushed for Helicopter money. We even have in the works, Direct Child Payments, and even more oddly, Mitt Romney is for it. 

SINGLE PAYER : Biden of course is not for Single Payer. But he does support a Public Option, and if Democrats are able to pass a strong Public Option in the next year or so, it could become Medicare Defacto overtime. ( Fingers crossed though. ).

COLLEGE DEBT : This is where I think Biden will be pushed by progressives rather than him taking the initiative. The Progressives really really want to have student loan debt forgivness. Biden doesn't seem eager to pursue but he is, he is, easily moldable. Let's see what happens.
Logged
Boss_Rahm
Rookie
**
Posts: 209


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1012 on: March 31, 2021, 08:03:47 PM »

I've been a long time lurker here, and I finally registered so I could join the conversation on this phenomenal timeline. Well done TD!

I'd like to sketch out a scenario in which the realignment happens in 2028. Basically, I don't see a realignment happening by 2020, but I do see a more conventional Democrat defeating Trump (who survives his first term despite Mueller's investigation). Here's how it goes:

2018: Democrats gain a 10-vote majority in the House, and Republicans retain control of a 50-50 Senate.

2020: Cory Booker narrowly defeats Trump. Democrats gain a few more seats in the House, and have a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

2021: With unified control of Congress, Booker initially tries to govern from the left on environmental and social issues. But moderate Democrats in the Senate stifle his agenda. President Booker's only major accomplishment is repealing some of Trump's tax cuts.

2022: The GOP takes back the House, and gains 2 Senate seats for a 51-49 majority.

2024: A crisis hits, similarly to how TD describes it. Voters blame Booker, and elect Mike Pence as President. Republicans expand their House majority to 250 seats. They also gain 10 seats in the Senate, bringing their total up to 61.

2025: Republicans respond to the crisis with sweeping tax cuts, which prove to be ineffective. The white working class becomes dissatisfied with Republican economic policy, and shifts towards the Democrats.

2026: In a pre-realignment wave, Democrats gain 70 House seats and 10 Senate seats.

2028: The realignment happens. Pence loses in an Electoral College landslide, and Democrats win 300 House seats. They also pick up 13 Senate seats, for a total of 62 seats in the upper chamber.
Boss_Rahm (I'm surprised you aren't from Chicago...)

The greatest problem with a 2028 realignment in my view is a couple of things. One, the foreshadowing Presidency has already passed (Obama's). Usually, when we are between the foreshadowing and realigning White Houses, we tend to not have a minority party president. The majority coalition in waiting is already fully formed and fleshed out, just needs an addition.

For example between 1848 and 1860, the Whig-Republican coalition was already largely set. The downballot numbers proved it. By 1924, the LaFollette - Democratic bloc was adding up to 46% of the vote. The Obama coalition has proved to win over 50% of the vote twice. The Democrats downballot have demonstrated the ability to be a majoritarian coalition.

So, Booker's win and the crisis hitting - or a second stunted foreshadowing - feels weird to me. Like, his coalition is clearly there but the second foreshadowing Presidency fails? Historically, at the very end, there's a burst of support for the majority as they die out. (1852-1860, 1976-1980, 1920-1932).

The crisis always hits the majority coalition, never the minority coalition. In fact majorities change because of the majority coalition's screwing up the crisis. They often start out ordinary but mushroom into extraodinary crises.

Originally this was set to be a Walker-Portman timeline that ended in 2028. But Trump's popular vote loss ended that.

What I'm puzzled about at this point is given the weakness of the GOP majority, is  whether we're headed to a 2020 or 2024 realignment. Or a staggered Lincoln-esq realignment where Cordray realigns winning 45% of the vote and minimal Congressional gains but needs a second term to cement power.

Amid all the doom and gloom from posters on here about how our TL resembles reagante's more than this one, I would like to resurrect this discussion point for those who aren't interested in dooming.

Biden is not our guy. If he were, the Republican coalition would be in shambles, and it obviously isn't. In all likelihood, Biden's agenda will be stifled by the Democrats lack of a filibuster-proof majority in the senate and moderate democratic senators' reluctance to embrace some of the more progressive policies he's proposing. After Republicans wins both chambers of congress in 2022, his agenda will be stifled in full, leaving him with nothing but empty platitudes and a limited slate of accomplishments (the COVID relief bill and maybe an infrastructure package) from his first 2 years.

This doesn't mean the cycle is broken. Instead, it means Biden fits into our category of "failed" presidents preceding the realignment. His limited slate of accomplishments and the overwhelming disadvantage Democrats face in the electoral college will prove fatal for him (or Harris) in the next election, when the electorate will almost surely be as polarized, if not more polarized, than it was in the preceding election. A Republican victory in 2024 can then be interpreted as a final "snapping back to the mean" before a crisis so catastrophic occurs that the reigning Republican coalition is left in shambles.

Will Biden fit the traditional definition of a "failed" president? Maybe not. Maybe you can think of him as analogous to Calvin Coolidge, who himself was sandwiched between a scandalous president (Harding) and a tragic one (Hoover). Biden may preside over a strong economy as Coolidge did, although the state of the economy would be owed to the seemingly unstoppable stock market as opposed to policies enacted during his tenure. What makes Biden a "failed" president then isn't his failure to deal with the impending crisis (that would be mostly blamed on his republican successor), but rather his failure to enact the changes needed to stop the impending crisis and being unfortunate enough to be sandwiched between Trump and whoever succeeds him.

Who the realigning President could be is still unknown, although Fetterman is an interesting choice, and I know he's a favorite on this forum. I suppose only time will tell whether we really are stuck in a nation-ending nightmare or whether TD's cyclical hypothesis is true.

Love to see a three year old post of mine getting some attention, so I'll weigh in here. I actually think there's a real possibility of what TD called a "Lincoln-esq" realignment under Biden, in which Democrats win enough Senate seats in 2022 to nuke the filibuster and usher in a new era of policy. The left flank of the party (which I count myself a part of, by the way) will continue to lose policy arguments, just as it did under Roosevelt. But like Roosevelt, Biden is following the center of mass of the Democratic Party, which is moving to the left as a whole. For one example, a $15 minimum wage has gone from a fringe idea introduced by Bernie Sanders to nearly having the votes to pass Congress.

On the other hand, it's perhaps more likely that Biden ends up a failed president and a realignment happens in 2028 like I described, or in 2032. For what it's worth, every realignment that TD identified (1800, 1860, 1932, and 1980) coincided with a Class III Senate election. If that pattern holds, it would point to 2028 being the year.

Or we could very easily end up on a reagante-style path, which isn't much fun to think about.
Logged
EngDawg2020
Rookie
**
Posts: 15


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1013 on: May 09, 2021, 09:10:18 PM »

This was the timeline that got me into this site and I’m a little glad that it’s not exactly prescriptive. I’m not 100% knowledgeable about realignment theory but I do wonder if say if the issue related to COVID could have affected the possible 2020 alignment?
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1014 on: May 11, 2021, 10:55:18 PM »

I remember reading this.
Logged
CascadianIndy
Cadeyrn
Rookie
**
Posts: 115
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1015 on: August 15, 2021, 03:29:27 AM »

Revisiting this and in the light of the Afghanistan disaster (which will be hammered on by the MSM), I'm starting to believe that there's a chance instead of having simply one to two disjunctive President as seen here (Pence/Trump), we're headed for a rapid-fire succession of them from different parties a la Taylor/Fillmore/Pierce/Buchanan before a realigner comes in. Either we see that play out once again with Trump/Biden/Harris/DeSantis, followed by a final realigner from either the left or the right that changes America and "saves" it, albeit after it's salvation America may look wholly unrecognizable to those on the left or the right, or the US continues plodding along in this sense of malaise, failing to break the cycle, though never quite exploding into civil war simply because of how jaded everyone and everything is.

Just my own two cents. I hope Biden proves me wrong by this time next year, but it seems like we might have to wait for a decade more for America to cross the bridge on the chasm between two majorities, and I don't know if it falls into the abyss or not.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1016 on: August 16, 2021, 06:21:51 PM »

One thing to keep in mind about policy realignments and consensus are that usually once big policy changes are put into place , they generally are very hard to unwind.  See FDR's New Deal, LBJs Great Society, Reaganomics, Obamacare for examples of that and I think June 2022 will be when we know if Biden will be a major policy realigner or not.

As for a coalition realignment, I think it will probably happen early next decade when one of two things happen:

- The Rust Belt 3 go the way of Ohio/Iowa while Texas stays a Republican state due to Hispanics continuing to move right in which case Dems will have almost no pathway left to 270

- Republicans continue to collapse with sunbelt suburbanites at a fast rate while Hispanics dont shift much to the right which results in Texas going Dem in which case the GOP has no path to get to 270 either.

If either of these happen, you will see a huge realignment take place during the 2030s.


The worst case scenario could happen though which keeps us on this path for the forseeable future:

- You get a mix of those two to happen in which case Texas becomes what New York was in the Gilded Age and the winner of the state deciding the outcome of every election for the forseeable future




So I think whether we get realignment or not comes down to Texas and to sum it up:

- If Texas stays R or flips D you get a realignment

- If Texas becomes a true swing state you dont
Logged
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,641
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1017 on: November 11, 2022, 05:18:15 PM »

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.


I would be very interested in hearing your thoughts on the 2020 and 2022 election results as it relates to this timeline.
Logged
jojoju1998
1970vu
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,414
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1018 on: November 12, 2022, 12:38:15 PM »

I've been a long time lurker here, and I finally registered so I could join the conversation on this phenomenal timeline. Well done TD!

I'd like to sketch out a scenario in which the realignment happens in 2028. Basically, I don't see a realignment happening by 2020, but I do see a more conventional Democrat defeating Trump (who survives his first term despite Mueller's investigation). Here's how it goes:

2018: Democrats gain a 10-vote majority in the House, and Republicans retain control of a 50-50 Senate.

2020: Cory Booker narrowly defeats Trump. Democrats gain a few more seats in the House, and have a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

2021: With unified control of Congress, Booker initially tries to govern from the left on environmental and social issues. But moderate Democrats in the Senate stifle his agenda. President Booker's only major accomplishment is repealing some of Trump's tax cuts.

2022: The GOP takes back the House, and gains 2 Senate seats for a 51-49 majority.

2024: A crisis hits, similarly to how TD describes it. Voters blame Booker, and elect Mike Pence as President. Republicans expand their House majority to 250 seats. They also gain 10 seats in the Senate, bringing their total up to 61.

2025: Republicans respond to the crisis with sweeping tax cuts, which prove to be ineffective. The white working class becomes dissatisfied with Republican economic policy, and shifts towards the Democrats.

2026: In a pre-realignment wave, Democrats gain 70 House seats and 10 Senate seats.

2028: The realignment happens. Pence loses in an Electoral College landslide, and Democrats win 300 House seats. They also pick up 13 Senate seats, for a total of 62 seats in the upper chamber.
Boss_Rahm (I'm surprised you aren't from Chicago...)

The greatest problem with a 2028 realignment in my view is a couple of things. One, the foreshadowing Presidency has already passed (Obama's). Usually, when we are between the foreshadowing and realigning White Houses, we tend to not have a minority party president. The majority coalition in waiting is already fully formed and fleshed out, just needs an addition.

For example between 1848 and 1860, the Whig-Republican coalition was already largely set. The downballot numbers proved it. By 1924, the LaFollette - Democratic bloc was adding up to 46% of the vote. The Obama coalition has proved to win over 50% of the vote twice. The Democrats downballot have demonstrated the ability to be a majoritarian coalition.

So, Booker's win and the crisis hitting - or a second stunted foreshadowing - feels weird to me. Like, his coalition is clearly there but the second foreshadowing Presidency fails? Historically, at the very end, there's a burst of support for the majority as they die out. (1852-1860, 1976-1980, 1920-1932).

The crisis always hits the majority coalition, never the minority coalition. In fact majorities change because of the majority coalition's screwing up the crisis. They often start out ordinary but mushroom into extraodinary crises.

Originally this was set to be a Walker-Portman timeline that ended in 2028. But Trump's popular vote loss ended that.

What I'm puzzled about at this point is given the weakness of the GOP majority, is  whether we're headed to a 2020 or 2024 realignment. Or a staggered Lincoln-esq realignment where Cordray realigns winning 45% of the vote and minimal Congressional gains but needs a second term to cement power.

Amid all the doom and gloom from posters on here about how our TL resembles reagante's more than this one, I would like to resurrect this discussion point for those who aren't interested in dooming.

Biden is not our guy. If he were, the Republican coalition would be in shambles, and it obviously isn't. In all likelihood, Biden's agenda will be stifled by the Democrats lack of a filibuster-proof majority in the senate and moderate democratic senators' reluctance to embrace some of the more progressive policies he's proposing. After Republicans wins both chambers of congress in 2022, his agenda will be stifled in full, leaving him with nothing but empty platitudes and a limited slate of accomplishments (the COVID relief bill and maybe an infrastructure package) from his first 2 years.

This doesn't mean the cycle is broken. Instead, it means Biden fits into our category of "failed" presidents preceding the realignment. His limited slate of accomplishments and the overwhelming disadvantage Democrats face in the electoral college will prove fatal for him (or Harris) in the next election, when the electorate will almost surely be as polarized, if not more polarized, than it was in the preceding election. A Republican victory in 2024 can then be interpreted as a final "snapping back to the mean" before a crisis so catastrophic occurs that the reigning Republican coalition is left in shambles.

Will Biden fit the traditional definition of a "failed" president? Maybe not. Maybe you can think of him as analogous to Calvin Coolidge, who himself was sandwiched between a scandalous president (Harding) and a tragic one (Hoover). Biden may preside over a strong economy as Coolidge did, although the state of the economy would be owed to the seemingly unstoppable stock market as opposed to policies enacted during his tenure. What makes Biden a "failed" president then isn't his failure to deal with the impending crisis (that would be mostly blamed on his republican successor), but rather his failure to enact the changes needed to stop the impending crisis and being unfortunate enough to be sandwiched between Trump and whoever succeeds him.

Who the realigning President could be is still unknown, although Fetterman is an interesting choice, and I know he's a favorite on this forum. I suppose only time will tell whether we really are stuck in a nation-ending nightmare or whether TD's cyclical hypothesis is true.

Hmm......
Logged
jojoju1998
1970vu
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,414
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1019 on: December 28, 2023, 02:13:19 AM »

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

I actually have Mayor Pete in my mind as the confirmation president for some reason or at least close to the characteristics of the confirmation Democratic White House of the 2040s.

I'm not sold he's the realigning President because honestly he's too young and inexperienced to have the job of crafting a decades long new coalition that ushers in a radical period of change. That sort of stuff requires an experienced hand.

(I also believe this is principally why Pence wins the 2020 election)

For the record in related news impeachment of Trump has crossed a critical 50% threshold. I think the odds of Trump taking a deal and resigning is pretty good at this point.

So I think we all should brace for President Michael R. Pence.

Tim Walz or Gretchen Whitmer 2028.

They're both from the Midwest, experienced politicians, and under their tenures, Minnesota and Michigan have passed massive progressive legislation.


Logged
Prez_zf
Rookie
**
Posts: 74
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1020 on: December 30, 2023, 09:02:54 PM »

I just started reading, and I can't wait to see what happens!
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1021 on: December 31, 2023, 08:12:22 PM »

I just started reading, and I can't wait to see what happens!
This may be one of the best timelines ever written, you're in for a fun read!
Logged
nerd73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1022 on: March 14, 2024, 09:31:50 AM »

I've talked about this on Discord before, but in my opinion BTM and UaCoG are actually really good foils to each other. They're, in a sense, quite similar: They're both forum-defining TLs written by conservatives about a party flopping with two terms in power after 2016 and a realigning populist getting elected in 2024. And yet, they are also so, so very different.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 36 37 38 39 40 [41]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.067 seconds with 9 queries.