Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[The_Doctor]

Articles will resume today or sometime this week. I've figured out the Great Crisis, more or less and the final ten articles.

Strap on your seatbelts, folks. The storm is inbound.

[KingSweden]

A nitpick - I doubt Habib runs for Gov in '20, it is widely assumed Dow Constantine has it wrapped up.

Otherwise great. Impressive work

[The_Doctor]

President Michael R. Pence Takes Oath of Office

January 2021 - (Washington, D.C.) On a cold day in January 2021, Michael Richard Pence was sworn in as the 46th President of the United States while Nikki Randhatta Haley was reaffirmed the nation’s 49th Vice President. With Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress, comparable to 2005, and no crisis on the horizon, the GOP looked poised to stay in power.

The country had voted Republican for the White House by 49-47% and for the House, 50-48%.  Bitter Trump loyalists expected their man to be standing on the inaugural podium taking his oath for a second time, but there Pence stood, the embodiment of the nexus of the conservative Tea Party and Republican establishment.  Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell reprised their roles of 2016 while Mrs McCarthy and Mrs McConnell escorted the Second Gentleman and First Lady of the United States. At noon, the President took the oath that made him President in his own right.

A conservative Midwestern sensibility had taken ahold of the nation; a kind of transported genteel Vermont laissez faire that hearkened to Cal and Grace Coolidge’s America. Pence himself may well have been the second coming of Silent Cal, the man who called his wife “Mother.” America’s political leadership seemed frozen in the 1920s, a calm conservatism that seemed to collect the nation’s consciousness and soothe the country after the rambunctious 2000s and 2010s. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) mirrored Nicholas Longworth (R-Ohio) and Charles R. Curtis (R-Kansas) mirrored Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).  Gone was the heady change of Obama’s era and gone was the angry nationalist conservatism of Donald Trump (although both stayed there, lurking underneath). The national prayers carried the air of Sunday morning sermons in them, and much like in 1924, New England - Midwestern squeaky clean parlors replaced the rambunctious blue collar Rust Belt - Queens order.

The President did not deliver bromides or fulminate. That wasn’t his style, dating to the 2000s. He had never been a negative campaigner. He delivered a conservative call to expand domestic liberty, to keep America out of troubled overseas shores, and to defeat radical Islam and to defend American interests (against China, against Russia, and to stand up for liberty). The President argued quietly that the country reassert a laissez faire government that operated simply and with an eye to fiscal discipline (thus implicitly defending the draconian budget cuts of the Trump and Pence eras). It was clear the President saw himself a Coolidgean figure; a figure that would restore the national calm and do what Calvin could not: lead a conservative era that was rooted in limited government and a generally conservative social morality. He very much wished to inaugurate the successful Coolidge era that would lead the country to expanded prosperity and peace.

The Republican Congress wanted to take up deregulation, and to limit the scope of government further. RyanCare dying in 2017 had doomed the GOP’s dreams of sweeping entitlement reforms but they hoped for an immigration bill, hoped for tax reform that was deeper than 2017, and maybe, finally, true free trade reform. Ryan and McConnell wanted to entrench the era.

Left unsaid was that given the chance to redo things, Republicans hoped to make up for the W. and Trump presidencies. They wanted to show America that capable leadership existed in the Republican Party. They wanted to assure the country that the tropes about failed GOP leadership was imaginary. This was the great hope of Pence, Ryan, and McConnell.

On the podium was the disgraced ex-President, Donald J. Trump. Having been in exile since 2019, this marked Trump’s first major public outing since his resignation as President. The former President and former First Lady spoke little, and the day belonged to the Pences. The ex-Trump aides watching from outside Washington were understandably bitter; most of all, Steve Bannon, who had dreamed of a Jacksonian Republican majority that would rule for a generation. Disappointed alt-right figures had hoped for the sea change that two terms of President Trump and a prolonged nationalism that would assert Euro-centrism in the United States political map. But it was not to be. Reaganite conservatism had reascended, with a touch of Trump populism to accompany it.

The country watched, and settled in for Pence’s brand of conservatism. Little did they know the gathering storm …

[Mike Thick]

A nitpick - I doubt Habib runs for Gov in '20, it is widely assumed Dow Constantine has it wrapped up.

Otherwise great. Impressive work

Let's imagine that it's a Stunning Primary Upset^TM

[jojoju1998]

President Michael R. Pence Takes Oath of Office

January 2021 - (Washington, D.C.) On a cold day in January 2021, Michael Richard Pence was sworn in as the 46th President of the United States while Nikki Randhatta Haley was reaffirmed the nation’s 49th Vice President. With Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress, comparable to 2005, and no crisis on the horizon, the GOP looked poised to stay in power.

The country had voted Republican for the White House by 49-47% and for the House, 50-48%.  Bitter Trump loyalists expected their man to be standing on the inaugural podium taking his oath for a second time, but there Pence stood, the embodiment of the nexus of the conservative Tea Party and Republican establishment.  Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell reprised their roles of 2016 while Mrs McCarthy and Mrs McConnell escorted the Second Gentleman and First Lady of the United States. At noon, the President took the oath that made him President in his own right.

A conservative Midwestern sensibility had taken ahold of the nation; a kind of transported genteel Vermont laissez faire that hearkened to Cal and Grace Coolidge’s America. Pence himself may well have been the second coming of Silent Cal, the man who called his wife “Mother.” America’s political leadership seemed frozen in the 1920s, a calm conservatism that seemed to collect the nation’s consciousness and soothe the country after the rambunctious 2000s and 2010s. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) mirrored Nicholas Longworth (R-Ohio) and Charles R. Curtis (R-Kansas) mirrored Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).  Gone was the heady change of Obama’s era and gone was the angry nationalist conservatism of Donald Trump (although both stayed there, lurking underneath). The national prayers carried the air of Sunday morning sermons in them, and much like in 1924, New England - Midwestern squeaky clean parlors replaced the rambunctious blue collar Rust Belt - Queens order.

The President did not deliver bromides or fulminate. That wasn’t his style, dating to the 2000s. He had never been a negative campaigner. He delivered a conservative call to expand domestic liberty, to keep America out of troubled overseas shores, and to defeat radical Islam and to defend American interests (against China, against Russia, and to stand up for liberty). The President argued quietly that the country reassert a laissez faire government that operated simply and with an eye to fiscal discipline (thus implicitly defending the draconian budget cuts of the Trump and Pence eras). It was clear the President saw himself a Coolidgean figure; a figure that would restore the national calm and do what Calvin could not: lead a conservative era that was rooted in limited government and a generally conservative social morality. He very much wished to inaugurate the successful Coolidge era that would lead the country to expanded prosperity and peace.

The Republican Congress wanted to take up deregulation, and to limit the scope of government further. RyanCare dying in 2017 had doomed the GOP’s dreams of sweeping entitlement reforms but they hoped for an immigration bill, hoped for tax reform that was deeper than 2017, and maybe, finally, true free trade reform. Ryan and McConnell wanted to entrench the era.

Left unsaid was that given the chance to redo things, Republicans hoped to make up for the W. and Trump presidencies. They wanted to show America that capable leadership existed in the Republican Party. They wanted to assure the country that the tropes about failed GOP leadership was imaginary. This was the great hope of Pence, Ryan, and McConnell.

On the podium was the disgraced ex-President, Donald J. Trump. Having been in exile since 2019, this marked Trump’s first major public outing since his resignation as President. The former President and former First Lady spoke little, and the day belonged to the Pences. The ex-Trump aides watching from outside Washington were understandably bitter; most of all, Steve Bannon, who had dreamed of a Jacksonian Republican majority that would rule for a generation. Disappointed alt-right figures had hoped for the sea change that two terms of President Trump and a prolonged nationalism that would assert Euro-centrism in the United States political map. But it was not to be. Reaganite conservatism had reascended, with a touch of Trump populism to accompany it.

The country watched, and settled in for Pence’s brand of conservatism. Little did they know the gathering storm …

You seem to predict everything right basically. Trump's Coalition as the last Gasp of the Reagan Coalition. Trump actually building a wall, and renegotiating NAFTA. I also always saw Mike Pence as a Boring Dad Figure too, so you predicted that right.

How do you do it ? I mean, Do you have a Degree in Political Science or History ? Because....

[The_Doctor]

You seem to predict everything right basically. Trump's Coalition as the last Gasp of the Reagan Coalition. Trump actually building a wall, and renegotiating NAFTA. I also always saw Mike Pence as a Boring Dad Figure too, so you predicted that right.

How do you do it ? I mean, Do you have a Degree in Political Science or History ? Because....

My first thread which kind of precedes this one (just swap out Walker for Trump):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=203474.0.

So this is a nice post to respond to to say what I got right and wrong, and how. While you're very kind (and thank you), my batting average is about 65-70% right.

1. The big thing I REALLY got wrong was Trump. I didn't think he'd be President, I was betting on Walker. The electoral map I got for Walker is dead on close to the one I got for Trump.

In general, I suck the most in nailing who will be the specific winners, but I do get the party and general events right. (I think. I bet Tim Kaine would be VP for the Dems and that Clinton would be the nominee. I bet O'Malley would be the liberal insurgent. I was right about a liberal insurgency. And so on and so on.

I generally just look at history, the past, trends, throw in a few random events, and voila, here we go. I don't think history or events are that random, it's just a set of events that unite to create a sequence with consequences. There's a nice example in the lead up to World War I where the alliances and rivalries in Europe and Bismarck's geopolitical international diplomacy all ends up in tatters in the Great War of 1914-1918 but it's entirely predictable when you link events together and figure out their consequences.

I read a lot, and I have a variety of news sources, left and right and center, that help guide me and I try to situate these events and news stories within context to figure out their impact.

I hope that answers your questions. Feel free to ask me anything and PM me. (Sorry that my PM answer was so terse).

EDIT: Sanchez is the one who predicted Priebus. I put in Gillespie, a former RNC Chair, as WH COS on his advice. Voila, Priebus wasn't that far off.

[The_Doctor]

Lastly, I'm not a believer in free will, so I believe a lot of events are predetermined by our environment, our collective actions, and the generally predictable behavior of humans to do certain things. So that helps remove doubt for me for a set of actions.

Anyway back to the articles. Where I am mentally, I need a few days to draw up the international situation 2021-2025 and think about that. The Crisis is already pretty much drawn up and set to go. I have the domestic timeline prepped all the way to 2025. The international situation and economics will need a little prep.

Probably we'll be done by March 1.

[The_Doctor]

A Cultural and Technological Sea Change … Or the First Part of the Realignment

February 2021 - (Silicon Valley, California). To start with, between the Eisenhower and first Bush presidency, technology had improved but had not radically reshaped American life. The PC was still in its infancy and the typewriter still had some relevance in American homes and offices. The cell phones that were coming out were clunky and large. Offices still relied largely on paper mail and home phones.  

When Poppy’s son, George W. Bush, became the 43rd President of the United States in January 2001, Blockbuster was still a major store. An app meant a PC or Apple application, and the smartphone revolution was not even a twinkle in Samsung’s eye. Videographers still used the clunky cameras to capture video and cameras were still unique stand alone devices. But largely, email - now a thing - still worked alongside with paper mail and the very idea of digitally recording videos and pictures - let alone using your phone as a wide ranging mini laptop or wide ranging communication device - was not on the mental horizons’ of most Americans.  

But here we are, in the year 2021. While the political era remained rooted in the 1980s, the technological world was very much modern, very much long beyond the Reagan and Bush sensibilities. 81% of all American adults owned a smartphone - which had dropped from a wallet busting $800 to $200 to $400 for a decent model. Most smartphones used front and back cameras, had decent processing power that easily defeated anything NASA used in 1969, and were foldable and bendable.  Anyway you sliced it, modern communication had become as simple as taking your phone and typing out a message or calling someone or videoconferencing someone.

The internet radically changed, as well. It had gone from the sleepy dominion of AOL, where web pages were simple HTML to complex interactive multimedia that engaged their readers. Any internet page in 2021 that wasn’t mobile (or AMP) responsive was considered as antiquated as Dwight Eisenhower’s balding mugshot.  

Were the smartphone revolution the only major upheaval, it would qualify as era-defining. But more was coming. In 2019, Google rolled out the first autonomous self-driving car that aced several rigorous tests within city limits (and in the outdoors). Self-driving cars were starting to become part of the landscape. They posed a real threat not only to cab drivers but to truck drivers, the largest occupation in the 50 states (individually and in general).

Then, there was virtual reality. A pipe dream in 2014, it had taken off in 2018, with Samsung and other makers creating device-friendly virtual reality devices like the Samsung Gear and the HTC Vive.  The potential for, say, imagining videoconferences where people assembled around a table via virtual reality from remote spots threatened to upend the very need to say, come in to work. It was less than 5 years away from fruition, according to some.

Speaking of which, cloud computing - starting in the 2010s - had become part of the technological framework of the developed and developing world. Apps like Slack, Google Sheets, Docs, and others became part of the collaborative economy. Anyone could log in and help others edit, create, and optimize a work product remotely and with group messaging capabilities.

Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime raced to put millions of gigabytes of TV on the internet, available to subscribers who could access a vast multitude of electronic media at the click of a button. (This might have been part of the reason for the phablet popularity; easier to watch TV on a larger screen than a smaller one. It’s also why the major smartphone makers expanded their screen real estate beginning in 2017).

Social media also was quickly replacing news. Reporters were disseminating and spreading news via tweets and linking their reports online, where readers could quickly catch up in seconds. No longer did you have to wait for your newspaper to deliver your daily digest when your favorite reporter - who you had helpfully followed on Twitter - simply pushed out a Tweet with a card linking to his or her story, complete with a 140 character synopsis in it. Print media was quickly dying as digital media became all the rage.

And of course, social media had elected a President named Donald John Trump, in 2016. (Arguably, social media had elected two Presidents; Barack Obama as well). Any political campaign expecting to succeed in 2020 and beyond that wasn’t on social media might as well have called up its opponent to formally concede the election.

Interestingly, most of the major changes were around communication and consumable media. Outside these variables, anyone who stepped on a plane in 1990 largely experienced the same thing. Cars were a little better now (with the new back looking cameras) and some fancy gizmos but nothing radically world changing. Homes were largely similar to 1980 and 1990. Schools were largely unchanged since the 2000s. Textbooks remained bulky and not digitized, to a large extent. Cancer treatments still comprised of radiation that zapped large parts of your affected organs and cells.

About the most interesting non-cellphone or internet or computer related innovation was that solar energy was now as cheap as coal or natural gas. They were dropping because of technological advances, that enabled massive solar power plants to be constructed across the globe.

But there was a glaring omission. The 1920s to the 1960s had seen radical transformation across every area of life, with multiple inventions upending life. The telephone, radio, television, plane, fax machines, copiers, and radiation therapy changed everything. Someone witnessing President Herbert Hoover’s swearing in 1929 would be shocked at the world in Lyndon Johnson’s 1965 swearing in. Someone at Ronald Reagan’s swearing in 1985 would be less shocked at the technology of 2021, since it was pretty similar. Planes, cars, homes, offices, and other similar technology remained largely the same for everyday ordinary people.

Sure, there was the oddity (like Narendra Modi’s holographic appearances in his 2014 campaign to become Prime Minister of India). But by and large, the advances were constrained to the personal computing, online shopping, and communications areas. For the great leap forward, to borrow a phrase from the Cultural Revolution (with apologies and no intent to share their ideology), the changes that were inbound required an entirely new philosophy and approach to modern life.

The Old Right was ill prepared for the moment. The New Right of 1981 had become the Old Right of 2021, and it was grappling with a world that was about to encounter nanotechnology, self-driving automobiles, virtual reality, and a whole host of other things (like robotic warfare). For example, President George W. Bush had shut down embryonic stem cell testing on the advice of his evangelically conservative base. As late as 2017, President Trump had questioned the notion of women in combat, even though modern technology had narrowed the differences between the two sexes in warfare. And of course, on global warming, the Old Right squarely stood behind the great energy producers of the 19th and 20th centuries while the Democrats had the lead on the energy resources of the 21st.

On the Left, the Democrats - who had powered Obama’s high tech and smartphone - friendly revolution and Bernie Sanders’ multi-platform technological revolt against the Clinton juggernaut - expressed more openness and willingness to harness the new technology and the new culture. The very values that tore apart America (and slightly, Europe) in the 1960s - the “hippie” values - now engineered the new world. The traditionalist Right, on the other hand, found their stabilizing - oriented values stressed by the new technology on the horizons.

Nobody had yet come to terms about the implications of the Automation Age. The new economic age threatened to upend the old economy; in the Old Economy, you could get by with a high school education and some good skills developed on your own time. Now, with the new age looming, and machines slowly learning to replace mundane human chores, the pressure intensified to help the global population adapt to the new order, especially in revamping formal education to help the population develop skills for the new age. As King Jon and Queen Danaerys of Game of Thrones* discovered, putting the kingdom back together required helping the masses thrive in the new age. Privacy concerns would need to be addressed, and the new technology would need to answer age old questions of usefulness and the tradeoffs they required society to adopt.

The challenges were immense. Climate change, automobile and transportation, space, home, and so many other technologies were about to come online and become integrated into the fabric of human life. It would be up to societies around the globe how to utilize and incorporate them. The blunt truth it would require a grand reimagining of the scope, role, and breadth of government and private organizations to operate in this new world.

If the futuristic 21st century as imagined by Ashimov and the Jetsons was to ever to come, hard questions would need to be answered and a realignment would need to happen.

* I’m the writer here. I get to write the ending for THIS timeline. GRRM can do whatever he wants. IF he ever gets to Book 7.

[The_Doctor]

If anyone is interested in writing articles about issues they feel that haven't been covered, PM me.

I may take a hiatus of 1 week to prepare for the final burst of writing and to gather data and figures. There are 15 articles (I know, I keep expanding the list) left to cover the crisis and the elections and so on.

[The_Doctor]

Notes: Read this article I wrote from 2015. It still holds and it is the basis for today’s article. Welcome to the First Crisis Article.
Tone: Present Day-ish. Most of our articles may be present day, to just give a sense of the crisis.  I'm going to have another article up tonight to wrap up China.

China’s Government Reels as Economy Collapse

December 2020 - (Beijing, China). The Communist regime faces an unprecedented market crisis as stock indexes tumbled for a week straight as a state of panic grips the country. The crisis, seemingly averted in 2015, had returned with a vengeance. Reforms promulgated to stave off crisis seemed to have failed and the government itself seemed on the brink of collapse. The Communist regime has sought international aid and begun a crackdown on dissident groups in the hopes of remaining in power.
 
Market watchers say that the Chinese government had for years been trying to force a restructuring of its 111 state capitalist owned businesses and firms since the scare of '15. However, the regime had run into stiff opposition who had engaged in endemic bureaucratic warfare to stave off Beijing's reforms. The Communist leadership, in response, tried to continue reforms but the system was verging on collapse.

For many, the problems lay in the fact that the leadership of the regime was deeply intertwined with these companies. Many company heads and leading officials were family members, close family friends, and associates of the Communist Party leadership. Therefore, reform was virtually impossible on a broad scale and the government teetered on the verge of collapse.

As the market run began in December 2020, world leaders began expressing alarm as China's economy went into freefall. The European Union, the United States, and the Russian Federation all expressed concern and soon, concern transformed into panic. World leaders were gathering in late December to talk about helping China recover from its crisis.

The DOW tumbled as did the Nikkei as the world responded to the Chinese collapse. Alarm spread from market to market that the Chinese contagion could threaten the fragile economic recovery that had been present since 2009.

Meanwhile, protests began to gain intensity in the streets of Beijing, Shanghai, and elsewhere. Marchers were calling for broad based reform to the government, transparency, and economic reform to help them. Many were middle class Chinese coastal residents who had struggled for years.

The Communist regime has been trying to ban protests and dissident marches, but increasingly, the government seems on the verge of collapse.

State officials warned, on condition of anonymity, that the regime in Beijing seemed "paralyzed" and "felt unsure how to handle the fast spreading crisis."

Economists around the world pointed to the easy credit and the long run that state capitalism had enjoyed without the benefits of competition as a major cause for the breakdown. They also pointed to the epidemic corruption that had reigned in China and the fraudulent statistics that were pushed by Beijing, masking the crisis's foreshadowing.

[The_Doctor]

Notes: Read the article above. We're wrapping up China with this article. The Third Crisis article will be in tomorrow. As for why I included China? You'll see tomorrow.

China's Government Collapsing; World Responding with Alarm

(April 2021) -- Beijing, China. As the Chinese government spiraled out of control, with intensifying protests and a floundering economy, the markets have taken a hit as the economies worldwide have begun incorporating China’s collapse into their markets. The crisis marks the first time a major power has collapsed in such spectacular fashion since the Soviet Union fell in 1992. And unlike the wind down of the Soviet Union, the Chinese collapse is chaotic and raises serious questions about a nuclear power that is a member of the Security Council in the United Nations.

President Xi Jinping - both the General Secretary of the Communist Party and the President - is considering resignation as is the Premier. The government, day to day, is considering emergency measures to remain functional and international fears have risen that the country’s nuclear warheads are unstable.

Global leaders have been trying to manage the situation, with offers of help to Beijing in the form of loans and bailout packages. Initially, the Communist leadership refused help, citing the conditions of the loans. After major bankers announced that credit reserves were low, the leadership reversed and allowed the bailouts. Led by the European Union, with the Pence Administration playing a quiet supporting role, the global community is desperately trying to salvage China’s position.

Economically, the United States has begun to see a bit of a dip in growth and as has the European Union, but nothing on the scale of what has been feared since the Chinese economy collapsed in December.

Riots and protests have intensified as the average Chinese resident finds themselves struggling to make ends meet. Without the luxury of the double digit growth and economic expansion and the sclerotic Communist leadership being unable to grapple with the crisis, the economic suffering is beginning to be felt by the coastal Chinese middle class. Increasingly, residents are marching daily in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, Shanghai, and other major cities.

The crackdown by the Chinese leadership has been considered widely ineffective and has drawn international condemnation.  The government is unapologetic, claiming they are needed for international stability and to restore order to the country. The United States has pushed China’s government to embrace more openness in order to remain politically viable.

UPDATE: President Xi Jinping has resigned as have much of the top leadership of the Communist Party. Sources are widely saying that the interim President will lead a transition to a different form of government and that the government is now “in a state of transition.” The United States, European Union, and others are widely applauding the move.

[The_Doctor]

Illinois Insolvent, Asks Federal Government for Aid

June 2021 -- (Chicago, Illinois). With a weakening economy cutting into state tax receipts and rising pension costs, Gov. Alex Giannoulis (D-Illinois) has asked the Pence Administration for federal aid to help the state meet its obligations. Governor Giannoulis indicated that if Illinois was not given a bailout, that the “devastating cuts” and “steep tax hikes” would “level the Illinois economy.” Pension debt stands at some $250 billion, cutting deeply into Illinois’ solvency.  The Governor asked Congress to allow Illinois to declare bankruptcy if it wasn’t able to provide aid.

For years, Illinois has teetered on the point of insolvency, and has been viewed widely as the one American state that could follow Puerto Rico into a fiscal crisis. Former Governor Bruce Rauner (R-Ill.) had a famous months long standoff with the Democratic legislature on the budget and since then, pension reform has become a political grenade that few in Springfield were willing to step on.  State government employees and local municipal employees have enjoyed considerable pensions that have left the state on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars.

Republican Washington has responded with skepticism to the first term Democratic Governor’s request with some skepticism and alarm. The White House refused comment on the request, saying only the “President would speak with Governor Giannoulis” to consider his request. House and Senate GOP Leaders indicated hostility to the idea, while the Democratic Minority leaders urged the White House and Congress to take up Governor Giannoulis’ request.

Illinois becoming functionally bankrupt, some economists warned, could spread the economic pain to other areas. Already, the governors of Kansas, New York, New Jersey, and California are warning that their states face a fiscal crisis due to the rising costs of pensions and serving an aging population. China’s economic meltdown coupled with the weakening economy and expanding aging population is impacting state coffers, state leaders warned.

The White House had no comment at this time. 

[jojoju1998]

It's going to get worse isn't ? I mean... China, and All of the Pension Plans going haywire. What Next, Student Loans defaulting ? Or you could have Russia declaring war right on the US.

[jojoju1998]

Also, How is Tom McClintock doing ? He's the U.S. Representative for California's 4th congressional district.

[The_Doctor]

It's going to get worse isn't ? I mean... China, and All of the Pension Plans going haywire. What Next, Student Loans defaulting ? Or you could have Russia declaring war right on the US.

Yes it will get worse. How? Just wait and see. I have all my articles except the last 2 written up.

[The_Doctor]

Also, How is Tom McClintock doing ? He's the U.S. Representative for California's 4th congressional district.

Is his district safe Republican or did it move to Hillary?

[The_Doctor]

President Pence Does an About-Face, Urges Congress to Help States

September 2021 -- (Chicago, Illinois). With the budget crisis around the states intensifying, the White House has reversed its opposition to granting aid to Illinois. The Republican leadership in the House and the Senate met with the President in the White House to discuss the matter. Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell were mum as they left the Oval Office.

Senior aides to the White House admitted it would be a “rough struggle” to get funding through the two chambers without Democratic support and that the GOP conference seemed hostile. With an October 30 budget deadline to meet, the White House is scrambling to find the funds to help Illinois and potentially two to three other states deal with the fiscal crisis.  Leading Republican members of Congress indicated there would be a “serious fight” for the budget funds to be allocated to the states.  Illinois Republicans reported “considerable” hostility within the House GOP Conference.

Conservatives in both the House and the Senate are threatening to block the budget without the financing of the “bailout” being paid for. More moderate Republicans are warning about the danger of the intransigent conservatives in furthering the crisis. Angry Democrats are calling for a clean budget to pass, including funding to the states without strings attached.

The governors of California and New Jersey have also begun to sound the alarm, with aides to both Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.) and Gov. Phil Murphy (D-N.J.) indicating the states might follow  Illinois’ lead in asking for federal aid. Worryingly, the first Republican - led states - Kansas and Kentucky - also face fiscal crises due to the weakening economy.

In response, markets have begun to fluctuate and stop their recent high of 22,000.

[jojoju1998]

Also, How is Tom McClintock doing ? He's the U.S. Representative for California's 4th congressional district.

Is his district safe Republican or did it move to Hillary?

The District moved to Hillary in 2016, but barely. McClintock won reelection in a landslide.

[The_Doctor]

Notes: And there's an article tonight. Just digest the last couple of articles. We'll do two a day and that gets us to 2022 pretty fast. At this point, I want to focus on the crisis and it's really hard to forecast the international situation this far out ... so we'll ditch the International Round up and Economic Round up and wind down with the Crisis.

Economy Facing Recession; President Addresses Nation as Government Shuts Down

November 2021 -- (Washington, D.C.). Days after a failed budget resolution to finance the government ended in a government shutdown, the President addressed the nation from the Oval Office to plead for “unity” and “to resolve this crisis.” Democratic leaders lambasted the President and the G.O.P Congress for failing to act while Republican disunity was on full display.

The White House had submitted a bill billed as a budget compromise in late September that granted budget funds to Illinois, California, and New Jersey, with requirements to enact broad based tax and spending reform. Republican leaders hailed it as a “long term solution” that would avoid a repeat of the crisis as Democratic leaders furiously called it “GOP intrusion” into the states’ budgets. In the state capitols of Illinois, New Jersey, and California, the outraged governors called it a “sham bailout.”  Meanwhile, White House aides indicated privately it was the best they could do “under the circumstances” and they would “try for a better deal” down the road. The President urged the compromise, hailing it as a “a solution that will help hard working states get back on their feet.”

However, the floor vote caught White House aides flat footed.

The President had failed to get his budget through the Republican - led House, with a floor vote of 133-301. Of the 242 Republicans, 192 Democrats, and 1 vacancy, 159 House Democrats had voted no, 25 had voted yes, while the GOP had voted against the bill by a 100-142 margin. Democrats decried the austerity conditions attached to the budget and voted en masse against the budget. Republicans lambasted the bailout as a “giveaway to the liberal states.”

In the immediate aftermath of the House vote, the DOW Jones sunk 600 points as the nation faced the possibility of a looming recession.  White House aides started furiously lobbying recalcitrant GOP and Democratic House and Senate members to reverse themselves and to support a bailout package.

The President addressed the nation on the night of the 8th of November, asking Congress and the “people” to come together to “find a solution that helps our fellow citizens.” Increasingly, analysts are wondering if the fiscal standoff and government shutdown will be resolved in time or if they will be prolonged.

[Blackacre]

"A Coolidgeian figure" careful what you wish for, Pence!

[The_Doctor]

Country Faces Prolonged Shutdown; Pence Looking “Crippled”

January 2022 -- (Washington, D.C.) House and Senate Republicans were no closer to a resolution as the country entered month three of a prolonged shutdown. The Pence Administration is now in crisis and the nation faces a steep recession that could wipe out much of the gains from the 2019-2021 economic expansion. The civil war inside the Congressional Republicans has exploded into open view as Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Ryan struggle to round up votes for a grand compromise.

Simmering tensions over the state crisis has ignited something of a “revolt” within the GOP conference. Hardliners were demanding a “no” vote on bailing out the states and harsh restrictions on any state bailout that needed them. Moderates and liberal Republicans wanted minor strings attached while Democrats were generally united on helping the states in question without strings. Multiple votes reflected this, with the hardliners and Democrats uniting to vote down bills they deemed too antipodal to their views.

Conservatives have called this their “Waterloo,” arguing that Republicans have all too willingly given blank checks and given into a crisis atmosphere without considering the long term consequences. More moderate Republicans agreed that it was unfair that states like Illinois and New Jersey were getting the fund but argued the strings attached were too restrictive. It was a measure of how conservative the Republican conference had become that the idea of bailing out the states had become a Rorschach test for ideological purity. And Democrats refused to back down on a "any strings" attached resolution. Against this backdrop, the White House was unable to break through to engineer a compromise.

Increasingly, the White House looks ineffective and has come under fire for being unable to keep Republicans united or to marshal a plan through Capitol Hill. The beleaguered Pence Administration has been locked into months long discussions and negotiations over the compromise with little to show for it. The President’s approval rating sat at 34% with 52% disapproving.

In Springfield, Trenton, and Sacramento, the governors and legislatures have pushed through “draconian” austerity budgets in a bid to salvage their financial situations. As Washington descended into infighting and partisan gridlock, state leaders have muddled through. The governor of Kansas, a Republican, and Gov. Matt Bevin (R-Ky.) also have joined the calls for economic aid, increasing pressure on the GOP on Capitol Hill.

The economy contracted by 3% in 2021, and with the ongoing crisis without any resolution in sight, seems set to contract further in 2022.

EDIT by TD: I have updated the figures. It's now -3% in 2021 and -5% by 2022.

[jojoju1998]

It's happening isn't ? America's going to get whacked in the face. And we're going to be in a Big Coma.

[The_Doctor]

Nationwide Protests as Pence Administration Flounders
 
(January 2022) -- (Washington. D.C).  Protesters nationwide took to the streets to protest the Pence Administration and Congressional Republicans’ stalemate, with many protesting the budget cuts that had hit their communities. More states around the country have been grappling with revenue cuts and are looking at steeper deficits that can’t be made up with a shrinking tax base.

States have had to make steep cuts that have affected pensions, local schools, transportation, and roads, to name a few. The deepening budget crises that have hit the states hardest have spurred on massive demonstrations and demands Washington help the states with meeting their obligations.  Protests were especially intense across California, Chicago, and Trenton and Atlantic City, the three states that had requested bailout funds.

The White House, under siege, has been grappling with Congressional Republicans, who increasingly are divided and under siege from local constituencies and interest groups. The crisis has also split the Republican special interest groups, with the Christian coalition backing a bailout and the Club for Growth, the Koch brothers, and other business organizations fervently opposed.

Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell were reportedly stunned as their caucuses descended into turmoil, given that they had been able to wrangle votes for past crises and to avert the worst.

The government shutdowns of 2013 and 1995-1996 had been short lived because of the Republican leadership’s ability to round up votes. So had the cliffhanger debt ceiling vote of 2011. Now, with the unfolding crisis, under an all Republican government, the GOP leadership seemed helpless.

“The Republican split has been a long time coming,” said Marty McFlyinster. “The GOP base has been long divided between cutting budgets and helping local constituencies. This divide is now spilling out into open view in the middle of a crisis, because the polarization and intense “ideologicalization” of the GOP has led to this. The GOP can’t move on the crisis because of the intense forces that have pushed it to this point.”

[Virginiá]

This is very good TD. I haven't finished it all yet but most of it (I just started a couple days ago). Keep up the good work!

(ftr there were a few mistakes - eg, VA holds no state senate elections in 2017 besides those special election(s). They do that every 4 years - next time is 2019, and New Mexico Democrats already took back the state house this cycle)

[MRX]

China Collapse. Did you take inspiration from Thom Hartmann, who predicts financial problems for China in his book, "The Crash of 2016"?