Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Feel free to leave questions or topics you want me to address, if anything. 

What are your thoughts on the Cleveland Steamer?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm still here. I tend to be on Discord a lot more than here. Apparently, instead of Azerbaijain, we're getting Ukraine.

I will say the GOP is not knocked out but Trump might be hitting the end of his rope.

Feel free to leave questions or topics you want me to address, if anything.  

I wonder how your theory will work out if 2020 results in a Dem winning the Presidency but Republicans keeping the senate

[Devout Centrist]

I'm still here. I tend to be on Discord a lot more than here. Apparently, instead of Azerbaijain, we're getting Ukraine.

I will say the GOP is not knocked out but Trump might be hitting the end of his rope.

Feel free to leave questions or topics you want me to address, if anything. 

Your timeline has Trump resigning and leaving the political stage quietly. Do you think that's how the Ukraine scandal will unfold?

[WestVegeta]

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/02/pence-trump-president-2020-228903

"If Pence had already returned America to normalcy, that would leave Biden without his main argument.

No longer would the president be a bombastic demagogue who slathered crude economic populism, vicious anti-immigrant sentiment and creepy affection to the world’s worst dictators on top of the standard Republican mix of tax cuts, social conservatism and Federalist Society-approved judges. Instead, if Pence reverted to past form, we would have a conventional Republican."

thinking_emoji.jpg

[timrtabor123]

I'm still here. I tend to be on Discord a lot more than here. Apparently, instead of Azerbaijain, we're getting Ukraine.

I will say the GOP is not knocked out but Trump might be hitting the end of his rope.

Feel free to leave questions or topics you want me to address, if anything. 

The Atlas Discord I presume? Mind posting a link?

[Frodo]

bump

I was thinking the same thing.

I'm getting ahead of myself obviously, but I am kind of amused as to how relatively accurate his prognostication of the 2020 Democratic primary has been thus far. Warren and Biden seem to be fulfilling the roles IRL that he envisioned for Brown and Cuomo. Not to mention his prediction of Booker's and Hickenlooper's respective candidacies being flops turning out to be the case got a chuckle from me.

In the original timeline, he had Sherrod Booker beating Andrew Cuomo (the establishment candidate) to win the nomination, and then going on to lose (narrowly) to President Mike Pence.  Extrapolating that to real-life, that means Elizabeth Warren is favored to beat Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, but then losing to Pence.  Reading further, we find that whoever wins in 2020 will be winning a poisoned chalice with the bottom falling out not just economically but also internationally as well, not unlike President Jimmy Carter's final years.  

[The_Doctor]

At this juncture the Trump scandal in this timeline looks eerily similar to what went down. Except, for business interests, it was investigating Joe Biden's family. He apparently has asked Australia, China, Britain, and Ukraine to investigate the Biden family and used his office as a quid pro quo.

Okay then.

[The_Doctor]

I'm still here. I tend to be on Discord a lot more than here. Apparently, instead of Azerbaijain, we're getting Ukraine.

I will say the GOP is not knocked out but Trump might be hitting the end of his rope.

Feel free to leave questions or topics you want me to address, if anything. 

Your timeline has Trump resigning and leaving the political stage quietly. Do you think that's how the Ukraine scandal will unfold?

So, I wanted to use this question as a springboard to answer things about Trump.

Part I

First, I think the impeachment & removal percentage is important. If it approaches or breaches 51% (and has already done so in Fox's poll that dropped last night but I would need to see corroboration - 538% has 49%), I think that represents a percent Trump cannot necessarily come back from. I think if half of the population seeks his active removal from office, his Presidency is essentially done.

An "impeachment and removal" voter bloc is a mortal danger to any President because a large one means that they believe you and those who enable you should be stopped, at all costs. That's what an impeachment question means.

This isn't a voter preference poll. It's a step above that; it's an active removal while in power poll. I think most voters tend to place a higher standard (and until Ukraine broke, most voters opposed his removal).

So, if that number is 51%+, that makes it very, very difficult for the GOP to sustain Trump in power over the next year as this scandal unfolds.

My guess, Trump will be forced to resign over the next few months. At a minimum, he will not be the GOP nominee. The scandal that hangs over him does not seem unsubstantiated. He does not seem capable of (maybe he is?) of pulling the rabbit out of the hat.

I think what will happen, the pressure will build for impeachment. The House will vote on articles of impeachment and Trump will resign as pressure builds in the Senate. McConnell will hold for Trump until the dam completely breaks and then he'll look to try to install Pence to hold the base in Kentucky.

The key determinant is what McConnell thinks is politically viable. He'll stick with Trump right now because breaking is not yet considered viable but if this ruptures the Republican Party, McConnell will choose to put the GOP ahead of Trump. (It's important to note Romney is already whipping votes in the Senate).

How much political pressure can the GOP take, basically, before it breaks?

And that brings us to II.

[The_Doctor]

Part II

So, this is the crucial element. The economy is slowing down (it was supposed to in late '18, it's turning out to be a year off and this is going into late '19).

This raises questions about a 2020 realignment, of course. And I'll say that I'm not convinced the economic slowdown will be that significant enough to derail a Republican victory.

In my thinking, voters may dislike Trump - but do they dislike the entire Republican brand to oust Pence, if he became President and mitigated much of what Trump did with the trade wars?

I'm skeptical. For one, the GOP's geographic coalition does not seem to have significantly broken. To date, the 538 House tracker shows the GOP trailing by 6%, Trump's approval rating is at 43%. In BTM, Pence won 49%. Basically, if you subscribe to the theory Trump runs behind a normal GOP President, you could get a number close to Pence's 49%.

Is it possible everything breaks in 2020 and Pence loses in a blowout to President x? Possible.

But I don't think any Democrat has the werewithal (Biden or otherwise) to beat a stable incumbent Republican President. The GOP geographic coalition, the internal Democratic battle for the direction of the Party, and the strength of the Reagan coalition (the donors, the think tanks, the party brass, etc) and the economy not collapsing completely probably adds to one last gasp for the Reagan coalition.

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).  

We are absolutely seeing the slow death of the Reagan coalition in Trump's failed White House, though, with the Reagan coalition being significantly underpowered compared to 1981, 1994, 2000, and 2004. It's hard to assess Trump as anything but the Reagan coalition losing its respectable institutions and becoming the conspiracy minded erratic fringe that dominates center stage.

But I still think the institutional strength of the coalition Reagan and Nixon built is strong enough to overcome the conspiracy lunacy, the insanity, and the rising left wing strength to beat out them one last time. And I think Mike Pence is going to be the incarnation of that last stand in 2020 and 2024.

[The_Doctor]

(Significant reworking to the 2022 debt crisis, though. I think the Democratic House stands firm and Pence flounders, with the GOP Senate and the collapse from there follows to resolve the standoff).

[BigVic]

Trump resigns ITTL and replaced by Pence. Why did Pence win comfortably in 2020 after pardoning former President Trump but lost in a blowout in 2024.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Part II

So, this is the crucial element. The economy is slowing down (it was supposed to in late '18, it's turning out to be a year off and this is going into late '19).

This raises questions about a 2020 realignment, of course. And I'll say that I'm not convinced the economic slowdown will be that significant enough to derail a Republican victory.

In my thinking, voters may dislike Trump - but do they dislike the entire Republican brand to oust Pence, if he became President and mitigated much of what Trump did with the trade wars?

I'm skeptical. For one, the GOP's geographic coalition does not seem to have significantly broken. To date, the 538 House tracker shows the GOP trailing by 6%, Trump's approval rating is at 43%. In BTM, Pence won 49%. Basically, if you subscribe to the theory Trump runs behind a normal GOP President, you could get a number close to Pence's 49%.

Is it possible everything breaks in 2020 and Pence loses in a blowout to President x? Possible.

But I don't think any Democrat has the werewithal (Biden or otherwise) to beat a stable incumbent Republican President. The GOP geographic coalition, the internal Democratic battle for the direction of the Party, and the strength of the Reagan coalition (the donors, the think tanks, the party brass, etc) and the economy not collapsing completely probably adds to one last gasp for the Reagan coalition.

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).  

We are absolutely seeing the slow death of the Reagan coalition in Trump's failed White House, though, with the Reagan coalition being significantly underpowered compared to 1981, 1994, 2000, and 2004. It's hard to assess Trump as anything but the Reagan coalition losing its respectable institutions and becoming the conspiracy minded erratic fringe that dominates center stage.

But I still think the institutional strength of the coalition Reagan and Nixon built is strong enough to overcome the conspiracy lunacy, the insanity, and the rising left wing strength to beat out them one last time. And I think Mike Pence is going to be the incarnation of that last stand in 2020 and 2024.

What if though say the Dems narrowly win in 2020 and you still have a Republican Senate . Could the Republicans pull a 1896 in either 2024 2028 in which they were able to revitalize their coalition for a new generation despite the fact that it seemed like they were in decline throughout the 1880s and early 1890s and Dems seemed to be on verge of having their own coalition

Most historians consider 1896 a realignment as well because of the fact that there were some differences between that Republican coalition and the Lincoln coalition and it set of a new era of dominance.

[The_Doctor]

No. The Republican era of 1980 to 2020/4 is two distinct eras. (Reagan 1980 to Bush 2000) (Bush 2000 to Trump/Pence TBD).

The Lincoln coalition was also ascendant with important business elements and northern voters coming into their own in 1896. Conversely the Democratic technology sector and the emerging Obama coalition is coming into its own as we clearly saw in 2018.
 
The clear fact that Millennials were the key to the Democratic House dispels your theory alone, a fact not present in the Civil War generations and their heirs who propelled the Republicans.

Generation Z is also on track to imitate Millennials and likely at this juncture would provide the confirmation Presidency the votes for election.

[The_Doctor]

Trump resigns ITTL and replaced by Pence. Why did Pence win comfortably in 2020 after pardoning former President Trump but lost in a blowout in 2024.

The table of contents on the first page would be helpful to answer your question here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No. The Republican era of 1980 to 2020/4 is two distinct eras. (Reagan 1980 to Bush 2000) (Bush 2000 to Trump/Pence TBD).

The Lincoln coalition was also ascendant with important business elements and northern voters coming into their own in 1896. Conversely the Democratic technology sector and the emerging Obama coalition is coming into its own as we clearly saw in 2018.
 
The clear fact that Millennials were the key to the Democratic House dispels your theory alone, a fact not present in the Civil War generations and their heirs who propelled the Republicans.

Generation Z is also on track to imitate Millennials and likely at this juncture would provide the confirmation Presidency the votes for election.

But then when do you think realignment happens if say a Dem wins narrowly in 2020 with a Republican senate and the recession happens say in late 2021 early 2022 . While Gen Z might be super Dem now who says they would be say after a Dem President who didn’t do a good job and a Republican say DeSantis or Haley does a very good job .


Reagan realigned the nation not cause of his victory but because he was a very successful president and who’s policies actually helped the economy grow and improved America’s presence in the world . If he wasn’t a good President Reagan wouldn’t have realigned the nation

[The_Doctor]

If the Democrats win the Presidency they're winning the Senate. The recession would be the catalyst along with Trump's impeachment. 

[The_Doctor]

Anyway if half of the country favors Trump's removal I want it on record to say he will not be the GOP nominee. There's a certain threshold to be electable as a party's incumbent nominee and having half of the country believe you should be removed from office fails that kind of threshold.

[Frodo]

In the event Trump leaves office and Pence succeeds him, how can you see Pence keeping Trump's cronies when most of them are basically crooks ensnared in one or more scandals?  He should fire the lot of them, and have Mitch McConnell confirm his own appointees ASAP before the election. 

[The_Doctor]

If the Democrats win the Presidency they're winning the Senate. The recession would be the catalyst along with Trump's impeachment.  

Not really they need 3 seats to win the senate and the number is actually 4 due to the fact that Alabama most certainly will be won by the GOP.


So in the case they win a narrow victory (2016+ MI , PA, WI , AZ) that likely only nets the Democrats 1 seat (They gain CO and AZ and lose AL ) and even if you add NC to the mix of what they will win 2020 that will only net them two seats which isn’t enough for a majority.


They can’t win narrowly and take the senate

I'm going to be respectful. Please take your arguments elsewhere. You repeated yourself twice and are now trying to argue with me after I answered you. Please find another thread to do so. Thank you.

[The_Doctor]

In the event Trump leaves office and Pence succeeds him, how can you see Pence keeping Trump's cronies when most of them are basically crooks ensnared in one or more scandals?  He should fire the lot of them, and have Mitch McConnell confirm his own appointees ASAP before the election. 

That is what Calvin Coolidge did and I suspect we would see an Indianan makeover of the Oval Office. Trump is increasingly looking like Warren Harding.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the Democrats win the Presidency they're winning the Senate. The recession would be the catalyst along with Trump's impeachment.  

Not really they need 3 seats to win the senate and the number is actually 4 due to the fact that Alabama most certainly will be won by the GOP.


So in the case they win a narrow victory (2016+ MI , PA, WI , AZ) that likely only nets the Democrats 1 seat (They gain CO and AZ and lose AL ) and even if you add NC to the mix of what they will win 2020 that will only net them two seats which isn’t enough for a majority.


They can’t win narrowly and take the senate

I'm going to be respectful. Please take your arguments elsewhere. You repeated yourself twice and are now trying to argue with me after I answered you. Please find another thread to do so. Thank you.

Ok Sorry

[ShadowRocket]

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

[The_Doctor]

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

I actually have Mayor Pete in my mind as the confirmation president for some reason or at least close to the characteristics of the confirmation Democratic White House of the 2040s.

I'm not sold he's the realigning President because honestly he's too young and inexperienced to have the job of crafting a decades long new coalition that ushers in a radical period of change. That sort of stuff requires an experienced hand.

(I also believe this is principally why Pence wins the 2020 election)

For the record in related news impeachment of Trump has crossed a critical 50% threshold. I think the odds of Trump taking a deal and resigning is pretty good at this point.

So I think we all should brace for President Michael R. Pence.

[ShadowRocket]

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

I actually have Mayor Pete in my mind as the confirmation president for some reason or at least close to the characteristics of the confirmation Democratic White House of the 2040s.

I'm not sold he's the realigning President because honestly he's too young and inexperienced to have the job of crafting a decades long new coalition that ushers in a radical period of change. That sort of stuff requires an experienced hand.

I could see that. He's certainly has the political talent to become President some day and is still young enough to try again at some point. Do you have any thoughts on who the realigning President could be since things didn't work out with Cordray?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

I actually have Mayor Pete in my mind as the confirmation president for some reason or at least close to the characteristics of the confirmation Democratic White House of the 2040s.

I'm not sold he's the realigning President because honestly he's too young and inexperienced to have the job of crafting a decades long new coalition that ushers in a radical period of change. That sort of stuff requires an experienced hand.

I could see that. He's certainly has the political talent to become President some day and is still young enough to try again at some point. Do you have any thoughts on who the realigning President could be since things didn't work out with Cordray?

Maybe Whitmer