Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

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Heaving read through this timeline on a few occasions over the last several months, this timeline seems seems to have the 2017-2018 era as less eventful than what's actually been happening so far with daily Trump scandals. With a wave fairly likely in 2018, isn't it likely that some sort of crisis hits in 2019 and 2020 is the realignment election much like 1980 and 1932?   

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GOP Gains in Senate; Loses in House and Governorships

November 2018 -- (Washington, D.C.) Republicans gained 4 U.S. Senate seats in the midterms while losing 4 House seats and 10 governorships, along with a raft of state legislatures. The demography and geography of the midterms dictated that the Trump Administration would be able to count on expanded Senate majorities but lose political support elsewhere. It was, in the lexicography of the pundits,  a "mixed midterm."

Republicans gained the Senate seats in West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri while Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) hung on by a 51-48% margin. These were all in heavy Trump states, and incumbents Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill, and surprisingly, Joe Manchin all went down to defeat. However, every other Democratic incumbent hung on, including Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey (D-Penn.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Relatively, the Senate GOP's hopes of breaching 60 votes was dashed. After the midterms, only Sen. Jon Tester and Sen. Brown resided in heavily Trump states (Montana and Ohio). In terms of what the GOP had hoped for, the 56-44 Republican majority was a disappointment for Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Senate Democrats, expecting much worse, rejoiced.  For that matter, Sens. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Dean Heller (R-Nev.) sighed in relief as they won re-election. (Heller was the one Senate Republican who kept McConnell up at night).

In the House, the 239 Republican majority dropped to 235 as Democrats made marginal gains under Minority Leader Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).  There wasn't much to report on this front, except that the House Democrats went to 200, breaching that watershed mark for the first time since 2012. Democrats and Republicans held their regions and no real breakthrough was seen. Gerrymandering and geographic domination meant the House Republicans were somewhat insulated against political forces.

President Donald Trump's approval rating held at 48% on Election Day 2018. The scandals hadn't generated enough momentum to topple him - yet.

The real story lay among the states.

The Midwestern Democrats, lacking for so long, roared back with victories in Ohio (Democrat Richard Cordray won the governorship 51-48%), Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolfe won a second term (56-43%), Michigan elected Democrat Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) governor over GOP Lt. Governor Brian Calley 53-45%. Stunningly, in Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker fell to Democrat Kathleen Vinehout 51-48%. In Iowa, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds lost re-election to Democrat Tyler Olson. Rounding out the Midwest, 2010 Illinois Democratic Senate nominee Alex Giannoulias won the governorship over incumbent Bruce Rauner (R-Ill.). In Florida, Gwen Graham wrested the governorship from the Republicans for the first time in 20 years. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.) defeated Attorney General Brian Frosh in a razor tight 49-48% win and Gov. Charlie Baker (R-Mass.) won against Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III. Altogether, the Democrats picked up the governorships of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Florida, Nevada, Kansas, Colorado, Maine, and New Mexico.  With the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey in Democratic hands, that brought the Democratic totals to 20 Republicans, 29 Democrats, and 1 independent.

The legislatures of various states shifted.  Start with the lower House. Democrats gained in Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa (flipping the chamber), Michigan (flipping it), Minnesota (flipping it), New Hampshire (flipping it), New Mexico (again, flipping it), and gained in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and narrowed the margin in Wisconsin. In the State Senate, Democrats flipped the Senate in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin. They also made gains in Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wyoming. In 2017, the Virginia State Senate had gone Democratic, meaning the Democrats held vastly more power than they did in the beginning of 2017.

All of this led to two points. One, the Congressional Republicans were doing somewhat fine  but the State Republicans were beginning to feel the Trump Administration hit them hard. Two, with redistricting coming up, the Democrats would be in the strongest position to influence redistricting since the early 1990s. And three, the Midwest was not the GOP stronghold so many had imagined.

EDIT July 15, 2017: Maryland and Massachusetts have been changed to be Republican. The number is 28 D, 21 R instead of 31-18 R. To note, these governorships went Democratic in 2022 post-crisis. The number of Democrats did not shift in Congress in either state delegation.  

EDIT August 4, 2017: With West Virginia's Governor switching parties, I have adjusted the post-2018 figures. It's 28 Democratic, 21 R. So a gain of 13 governorships for the Democratic Party.

This seems to have aged okay - right on the Senate gains to some extent but wrong on the House and somewhat too bullish on the governor races.