Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[ShadowRocket]

I'm just echoing everyone else, but I liked this timeline a lot and many of the things described within it sound like things that could actually happen.

I was bit surprised that you had Cordray picking Julian Castro for VP in 2024 since, unless I missed it, it didn't sound like he really did anything to remain relevant during the Trump/Pence presidencies. Joaquin Castro would've made more sense to me since I imagine he'll still be in the House, possibly in a leadership role. Out of the shortlist contenders you did mention, though, Kamala Harris struck me as the best choice, IMO.

Also, do you have a second-choice for who the realignment president could be in this scenario? I know you mentioned considering Carter or Kander before deciding on Cordray, but I was curious if you have an alternative in mind if things don't work out with him IRL.

[ShadowRocket]

Chris B, I was thinking Joe Kennedy III as the realigning candidate for the Democrats since it would be fascinating to see a Kennedy end the Reagan era but he doesn't seem like the kind of person who's interested in being President.

He seems like a possibility, though I would think his problem at the moment is that there isn't any room for advancement that would position him for a run at the moment as Warren and Markley don't seem to be giving up their Senate seats, and Baker will most likely win reelection.

I'm guessing TD didn't pick Kander for a similar reason.

[ShadowRocket]

How would the Democrats possibly retaking the House in 2018 factor into your timeline, TD? That is seemingly becoming a very real possibility as time goes on.

[ShadowRocket]

This past Wednesday, oral arguments were held for the PHH v. CFPB case at the DC Court of Appeals. The relevance being that this case may decide whether or not Trump can fire Cordray at-will.

While one should obviously be careful about reading too much into oral arguments, the court was purportedly skeptical of the anti-CFPB argument:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-regulation-idUSKBN18K0EI

[ShadowRocket]

Alternative timeline: The cfpb wins the case and Cordray stays on as cfpb head til 2018 then starts a radio show where he preaches progressivism and touts his jeopardy skills. He goes on to run solo in 2020 and wins BIGLY.

At this point, he is going to have to resign on his own accord rather than waiting on Trump to fire him if he really wants to run for governor in OH most likely.

[ShadowRocket]

Were you still planning on writing the article on Elise Stefanik's election as the first Republican President post-Cordray that you mentioned earlier, TD?

[ShadowRocket]

OK, I'm going to stop these articles because I really need to bang out this economic article, which is the final piece of the realignment supplementals and I want to finish the Perlstein trilogy. (So far, the trilogy is confirming what I knew from other books).

Cool

What role (if any) does Sherrod Brown play in this timeline from 2020-2024 and onwards?

Al Smith.

I'm curious, how different do you think your outlook would have been if we had a narrow Clinton victory? A weak Clinton landslide, winning Arizona and Georgia?

Defeat in 2020, realignment in 2024 or 2028.

Were you still planning on writing the article on Elise Stefanik's election as the first Republican President post-Cordray that you mentioned earlier, TD?

Maybe sometime in the fall.

Although I'm new, I've been keeping up with your TL for awhile. I really like what you've done. All the events seem incredibly plausible.

Thank you and welcome to Atlas.

Great. I look forward to reading it.

Something else I wanted to ask you was does Julian Castro do anything of note between now and 2024 that makes Cordray pick him as VP in your timeline? Having been just a mayor and cabinet secretary thus far, he struck me as an odd choice.

[ShadowRocket]

I picked him mainly to represent the emerging power of the Latino coalition and the integral nature of the Sunbelt to the Democratic Party. Traditionally, realigning tickets tend to have one or both members from the rising majority's geographic dominance. (Reagan - Bush, Lincoln - Hamlin,  Roosevelt - Gardner, Jefferson - Burr). The Midwest is not necessarily going to remain a Democratic stronghold. There is an even odds it could emulate Reagan's California and Pacific Coast and become Republican after the Cordray Administration.

It could be easily Kamala Harris but it will be someone from that region or the South.

Castro seemed a rising star in the Democratic Party's growing Sunbelt - South geography and spoke to the increasing power of Latinos within the Democratic Party so I thought it was a natural fit.

EDIT: Ah, I didn't make him a statewide officer. Whatever lol. I had originally planned him to make him a governor or Senator but I screwed up the planning. You get the idea. If Donald Trump can be president ...

That makes sense. I figured that being a governor, Cordray would be more likely to go with a sitting Representative or Senator with a familiarity with foreign policy and/or national security to balance the ticket in regards to experience. Like Kamala Harris as you mentioned or the other Castro brother Joaquin.

[ShadowRocket]

I know TD sees him as more of a Al Smith-type figure, but Sherrod Brown would strike me as the next best candidate for being the realigning president if things don't work out with Cordray.   

[ShadowRocket]

Great stuff!

Although rereading the first parts of this, it feels like things are happening a lot faster than predicted. You gave Trump a lot more credit than he ended up deserving.

This is just my interpretation, but I'm thinking that the realignment may be more of a gradual one instead of being a sudden shift as TD initially predicted. In large part because it is becoming increasing difficult to not see the Democrats taking back the House next year and having a good result in the Senate even if they don't take it back. Which will probably be due to opposition to Trump more than anything, with the Reagan coalition still staying in tact. In which case, I could still see Pence winning in 2020 and Democrats not making the leap to majority party status until the debt crisis and Cordray or some other progressive Democrat arriving on the scene.

[ShadowRocket]

With all due respect to TD, I have a hard time seeing Congressional Republicans dumping Trump prior to the Midterms barring something like Trump firing Mueller or indictments being handed down for Kushner and/or Don Jr. with Trump subsequently pardoning them.

I feel like a Trump impeachment would come down to Mueller laying down the case for it, along with the Republicans paying for their complicity with Trump at the ballot box. The original 2019 prediction just strikes me as being the likelier one in that case, but I'm probably way off the mark.

[ShadowRocket]

With Kennedy retiring, it looks like the solidly conservative Supreme Court that President Cordray had to deal with in this timeline is closer to becoming a reality.

[ShadowRocket]

It'll be interesting to bump this after the election in a few weeks and compare the actual results to what TD predicted here. And of course to see whether or not Cordray was elected governor in OH.

[ShadowRocket]

Does TD still post on here? I'd be curious to see what his thoughts are on Cordray losing and whether or not he has any thoughts on who could be an alternative.

[ShadowRocket]

Does TD still post on here? I'd be curious to see what his thoughts are on Cordray losing and whether or not he has any thoughts on who could be an alternative.

Maybe Whitmer (though I doubt it )

Maybe Sherrod Brown? I think he had him pegged as more of an Al Smith-esque figure but he does fit the profile. Beto O'Rourke strikes me as another possibility despite losing.

[ShadowRocket]

bump

I was thinking the same thing.

I'm getting ahead of myself obviously, but I am kind of amused as to how relatively accurate his prognostication of the 2020 Democratic primary has been thus far. Warren and Biden seem to be fulfilling the roles IRL that he envisioned for Brown and Cuomo. Not to mention his prediction of Booker's and Hickenlooper's respective candidacies being flops turning out to be the case got a chuckle from me.

[ShadowRocket]

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

[ShadowRocket]

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

I actually have Mayor Pete in my mind as the confirmation president for some reason or at least close to the characteristics of the confirmation Democratic White House of the 2040s.

I'm not sold he's the realigning President because honestly he's too young and inexperienced to have the job of crafting a decades long new coalition that ushers in a radical period of change. That sort of stuff requires an experienced hand.

I could see that. He's certainly has the political talent to become President some day and is still young enough to try again at some point. Do you have any thoughts on who the realigning President could be since things didn't work out with Cordray?

[ShadowRocket]

No clue on the realigning Presidency at this point since it would need to be someone middle aged, from a similar region as Obama (IL), a decently large state, and has had lost at least once. Preferably a Governor or Senator.

I don't think we'd have answers until 2023 and the 2024 Democratic field takes shape.

The assumption is that the GOP holds onto the White House in 2020. (Which Moody's Analytics Forecast did show them holding, by a decent margin).

I think the impeachment at this point forecloses the GOP nomination to Trump but not another Republican who would go on to win.

That makes sense. Cordray really seemed to check off all the requirements that you mentioned. Out of the current Midwestern Governors and Senators, Sherrod Brown still strikes me as a logical alternative, but its an open question to how much he wants the job considering that he passed on a run this cycle.

Maybe Russ Feingold can finally stage a comeback.

[ShadowRocket]

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

It's not her. She's an academic policy wonk untested to the rigors of leading a national coalition. In fact none of the Democrats really appear to be ready like Roosevelt and Reagan.

If it is a Midwesterner do you think Whitmer could be the realigner? That's the only candidate who I think fits your bill(Since I highly doubt Pritzker, Wolf , or Evers could be one). In Parrotguy's TL , Mayor Pete was the realigner although in that TL , Mayor Pete ran and won the Indiana Gubernatorial race in 2020 and then won the presidency in a landslide in 2024 .

I don't think it'll be Whitmer myself only because she's never faced an electoral defeat which seems to be one of the qualities past realigning Presidents all seem to share.

I recall TD saying that realigning and foreshadowing President tend to come from the same region, but I wonder if we could see an exception here and it'll wind up being someone from outside the Midwest assuming Obama was the foreshadowing President.

[ShadowRocket]

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

I think you may be right. She's really the only major Democratic office holder that I can see picking up the progressive champion mantle at this point. And she does seem to be positioning herself for another run in 2024, most likely contingent on a Trump reelection or Biden stepping down after one term.

Granted, she's not from the Midwest where TD envisioned the next realigning President coming from, but none of the current Dem governors or senators from here really strike me as plausible fits for that role. Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin are possible exceptions, but Brown has likely hurt his progressive cred by coming out against Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal.  While Baldwin has never face a electoral defeat which was one of the other criteria outlined, but she is ideologically close to Sanders and Warren. 

[ShadowRocket]

True. I'm sure how important it is for the realigning President TD envisioned to be from the Midwest so maybe its not a big deal that Warren doesn't represent a Midwestern state.

[ShadowRocket]

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

I know this post is almost two months old but I'm having a hard time seeing the whole Covid-19 situation not being the crisis that ushers in a new Democratic majority at this point.

I guess the one issue is that Biden doesn't really fit the mold of a realigning president. I wonder if we  could see a William McKinley/Theodore Roosevelt type of situation where Biden is the one who puts together the electoral coalition while his VP (Warren?) is the one that leaves the mark policy wise. 

[ShadowRocket]

Does TD even still post here? I'd be curious to see his thoughts on how the pandemic, recession, and Trump's and the GOP's handling of relate to this timeline.

I mean there are some significant parallels between this timeline and real world events.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm not sure I would agree. It seems inevitable to me that the Democrats will move to the left once the old guard steps down.  Even an establishement candidate like Biden has coopted a lot of progressive proposals.