2016 Popular Vote

[NOVA Green]

So at this point 126.4 Million votes have been counted.

Clinton currently leads (60.27 Million) to Trump (59.94 Million), Johnson (4.1 Million), Stein (1.2 Million), Others (0.82 Million).

Clinton- (47.7%) Trump (47.4%)- Johnson (3.2%)- Stein (1.0%), Others (0.6%).

Meanwhile there are likely over 5 Million votes yet to be counted, the vast majority of which are from West Coast states with heavy VbM populations, namely California where Clinton is currently leading by 28% over Trump.

My thought is that Clinton could well crack 49% and even potentially 50% of the PV, considering how "same day" voters and provisional ballots tend to break overwhelmingly Democrat.

Is this feasible based upon the ballots that we currently "know" or suspect are out there and what will the final PV numbers look like?

Idk how provisional ballots work in places like FL/GA/SC/NC/TX etc, let alone the Midwest, but I do have a sense on how these work in places like WA/OR/CA and even potentially CO....

Please discuss....

[Gass3268]

I'd really prefer not to think about it.  I guess if she does cross 50%, it could become a rallying cry for future state legislative elections to pass NPVIC by 2020.  Democrats would need a big wave to get it passed in states with 270 EV though.

You could get it passed in enough states to get to 270 EV with the use of referendums.

[The Mikado]

I don't think it goes much higher than something like 48.5%-49%. I don't think 50 is in the cards.

[jaichind]

I think it will end up being something like Clinton 47.9 Trump 46.8

[zorkpolitics]

Total votes counted now exceed total votes cast in 2012
2012     129,237,642
2016    129,915,497

Trump almost as many votes as Romney
Romney      60,934,407
Trump         60,913,178

[NOVA Green]

It is important to note for anyone watching changes in California, that typically the VbMs outstanding are typically counted first, since the process is to validate the voters that requested VbMs don't vote twice by casting Provisional ballots later....

Additionally, if you request a VbM and then don't return it and then vote in person instead, your vote is automatically flagged as provisional.

So basically, we can expect the initial round of vote counting to slightly lower Clinton's historic statewide margins, and then swing back once major metro counties start counting provisionals.

Went through this drill during the Cali '16 primary, and a whole thread monitoring Cali election results for almost thirty days until certification....

We won't know the final numbers and percentages unfortunately, until California continues its lengthy and diligent vote counting process, but within the next few weeks, we should start to have an idea once all of the VbMs are counted and we start seeing the Provo votes come in from the Bay Area and SoCal.

[zorkpolitics]

Trump has now surpassed Romney for the second most votes by a GOP candidate:
61,248,402  vs Bushes 2004 record vote of 62,039,572.

As CA and WA continue their agonizingly slow count, the 130,886,660 votes this year will soon surpass the record 2008 total of 131,473,705.

[MarkD]

Besides California and Washington, there are still thousands of more votes being counted every day in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Utah too. Even some states in the east are still adding hundreds of more votes to their totals.

[elcorazon]

Hilary now up over 1%. Could get close to 2% before it is done.

[President Johnson]

It's time for an electoral college reform. If the EC is not absolished, some at large electoral votes should be added.

[Mike88]

It's time for an electoral college reform. If the EC is not absolished, some at large electoral votes should be added.

Something like the Greek system, no?. The US could have 500 electoral college votes allocated for the winner in each state and then have an additional 38 votes for the winner of the popular vote.

[President Johnson]

It's time for an electoral college reform. If the EC is not absolished, some at large electoral votes should be added.

Something like the Greek system, no?. The US could have 500 electoral college votes allocated for the winner in each state and then have an additional 38 votes for the winner of the popular vote.

For example yes.

Or 638 electoral votes in total and these other 100 are awarded for the popular vote winner. Both options (538+100 or 500+38) would make it sure - or almost sure - that the top-vote getter ends up in the Oval Office. The way it should be.

[elcorazon]

some votes are more equal than others. I think all arguments for the electoral college are some version of this orwellian notion.

[zorkpolitics]

Trump now has more votes (62,070,466) than Bush in 2004 (62,039,572), making Trump the greatest Republican vote getter of all time, but still a distant second to Obama's 2008 total of 69,499,428

2016 is the greatest election turnout with 133,365,765 votes counted so far, nearly 2 million more than  the second highest recorded in 2008: 131,473,705.

Supposedly there is still millions of votes to count out west.
13 states have completed their counting and certified their results: FL, NV, NH, DE, GA, KY, LA, ND, OK, SC, VT, VA, WY